We have two small-ball teams going head-to-head in the ALCS, which is why we're seeing a ton of value in the homer market.
Let's dive right into my Guardians vs. Rays home run predictions and build that bankroll for the rest of the series.
Tap into my MLB picks and Guardians vs. Rays predictions for Monday, Oct. 12, and let's stay hot in the postseason.
Best Guardians vs Rays home run picks
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jose Ramirez |
11% |
 Junior Caminero |
20% |
| Long shot: Travis Bazzana |
10% |
| 💲HR combo | 446.83x |
Guardians home run pick: Jose Ramirez
In a series where home runs figure to be few and far between, I'm rolling with the man who almost single-handedly punched Cleveland's ticket to the ALCS.
With the Guardians' backs against the wall, Jose Ramirez delivered home runs in back-to-back games against the Chicago White Sox to keep their season alive and book a trip to Tampa Bay.
He's the best hitter in this lineup, boasts a 38% hard-hit rate, and his 12% K rate is among the best in the game. Sure, Drew Rasmussen is among the game's best at limiting the long ball, but sometimes you just have to ride the hot hand.
Rays home run pick: Junior Caminero
Surprise, surprise, one of the best hitters in baseball is making our list to go yard in Game 1.
There's something about hitting in Tampa Bay that gives Junior Caminero a boost. He owns a .934 OPS at Tropicana Field and has a .817 OPS in the postseason so far. Let it be known, the man with the fastest bat speed in MLB is always a good play to go yard, and we're getting a strong price against an inexperienced pitcher.
With Cleveland Guardians starter Foster Griffin owning a .414 xSLG this season, I'll ride with Caminero tonight.
Long-shot home run pick: Travis Bazzana
The Australian legend is my favorite long shot on the board. He's an absolute gamer and has crushed righties this season to the tune of a .846 OPS.
The Rays ace is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but Travis Bazzana has the tools to give him trouble today. Rasmussen throws his fastball 28% of the time, and that's a pitch Bazzana has absolutely feasted on this season, boasting a 47% hard-hit rate while launching nine of his 15 home runs against the heater.
If Cleveland hits a homer today, Bazzana is a good trade. At this price, you can't go wrong.
Guardians vs Rays home run combo
Tonight, we're targeting hitters who either thrive in specific matchups or are simply swinging a red-hot bat.
Caminero brings elite raw power, Ramirez enters the series fresh off homering in back-to-back elimination games, and Bazzana has shown a knack for punishing fastballs. Each brings something different to the table, but they all share one dangerous quality: the ability to change a game with one swing.
Let's start the week off right and hit a lotto, shall we?
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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