After a riveting Game 1 on Sunday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to bounce back against the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon, turning to star right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to hold it down on the mound.
Here are my favorite Dodgers vs. Brewers prop picks and MLB picks for today's matchup.
Best Dodgers vs Brewers props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 4.5 hits allowed |
52% |
| Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
39% |
 Logan Henderson 2+ walks |
42% |
Prop pick #1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 4.5 hits allowed
There may not be another pitcher on the planet better than Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto when the pressure's on. After what we witnessed last October and throughout the regular season, this guy is nails.
Today will mark Yamamoto's 59th elite rating on Batters-Box. In his previous 58 elite ratings, he has stayed Under this prop 62.07% of the time. For the combo people, he stays Under 6+ hits nearly 86% of the time.
On the road, those trends only improve, with under 5+ hits hitting 68.75% of the time and under 6+ hits hitting 87.5% of the time across a 32-game sample.
The trend is not always your friend, but these are trends that are extremely hard to overlook, especially when the right-hander owns a career 0.83 WHIP in the postseason. Take this up to 55%.
Prop pick #2: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
First off, what a price for the hottest bat in this Dodgers lineup to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. Freddie Freeman owns a .579 SLG, .807 xSLG and .316 ISO this postseason, while generating a 75% hard-hit rate and a 25% barrel rate.
Freeman draws Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Logan Henderson, who struggled against left-handed hitters to close out the regular season. Over the last 30 lefties he faced, Henderson allowed a 10.5% barrel rate and a 26.3% ground-ball rate, while posting a .360 xBA and .669 xSLG.
At home this season, Henderson has shut down left-handed hitters, who own a .158 BA against him. However, they've generated an elevation rate above 76% and a hard-hit rate above 40%. If hitters are making quality contact and elevating the baseball, the long ball is eventually going to come in waves.
With how well Freeman has been seeing the ball, this price tag is a must. Take this up to 50% at the very most.
Prop pick #3: Logan Henderson 2+ walks allowed
The Dodgers are one of the most disciplined teams in baseball, owning a 9.4% walk rate this postseason. During the regular season, they ranked third in baseball with a 10.1% walk rate, including a 10.5% mark on the road, which also ranked third.
Brewers starter Logan Henderson struggled against left-handed hitters late in the season, posting a nearly 14% walk rate against the last 30 lefties he faced.
The Dodgers have four left-handed hitters in their lineup with walk rates above 10.1% this season. So far this postseason, Mookie Betts leads the Dodgers with a jaw-dropping 18.2% walk rate, drawing four walks in five games.
Henderson handed out three free passes against the Padres in his last outing. Let's see how he fares against a Dodgers lineup looking to get back in the win column.
Take this up to 45%.
- 2026 Season: 558-1122, +3.60 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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