Drew Rasmussen gives the Tampa Bay Rays a distinct advantage over the exhausted Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the ALCS.
Our Guardians vs. Rays expert picks all favor the home team, with Rasmussen and Junior Caminero stealing the show in these MLB picks on Monday, Oct. 12.
Guardians vs Rays expert picks for Game 1
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Drew Rasmussen 18+ outs |
47% |
 Neil Parker: Junior Caminero o1.5 H+R+RBI |
53% |
 Joe Osborne: Drew Rasmussen o5.5 Ks |
50% |
 Dustin Saracini: Rays -1.5 |
42% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Drew Rasmussen 18+ outs recorded — Yes
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
I have this at a buy-to price of 52%.
Drew Rasmussen averaged 87 pitches per start during the regular season, but he tossed a 24-out, 101-pitch game vs. the Yankees in the ALDS and has thrown 97+ pitches in five of his last seven starts. Over that stretch, he allowed just six runs in 45 2/3 innings for a nasty 1.18 ERA.
It's a seven-game series, so the Tampa Bay Rays can bring Rasmussen back on full rest for Game 5 if needed. The Rays starter tossed seven shutout frames vs. the Cleveland Guardians at home in their last meeting in late July, needing just 91 pitches while striking out nine. If he keeps dealing, he'll pitch.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
Rays star Junior Caminero posted an impressive .390 wOBA and .204 ISO against left-handed pitchers in the regular season. Meanwhile, Guardians southpaw Foster Griffin spun a target-worthy 4.57 xERA and 4.03 xFIP against right-handed bats.
With Caminero hitting in the heart of the Tampa lineup and sporting a .351 xwOBA and .266 xISO during the playoffs, he’s positioned to fill up the box score in the series opener.
I'd recommend this Over up to 58%.
Neil also has his eyes on Rasmussen and a Griffin-specific pick in his Guardians vs. Rays props.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
Rasmussen looked every bit like a big-game pitcher in his 2026 postseason debut, eviscerating the Yankees for 10 strikeouts while allowing just one hit over eight scoreless innings.
Cleveland already knows how difficult he is to handle. Rasmussen recorded nine and six strikeouts, respectively, in his two regular-season starts against the Guardians, allowing just two earned runs.
With both outings clearing this number and his October debut a masterpiece, I’ll happily take Over 5.5 strikeouts at Polymarket’s 50% price.
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays -1.5
Price: 42¢ at Polymarket
I'm riding with Rasmussen until he gives me a reason not to.
Fresh off eight innings of shutout baseball against the Yankees, a lineup he punched out 10 times, the Rays ace gets a Guardians team he's largely dominated.
The righty has limited Cleveland to a paltry .183 xBA, which includes Jose Ramirez, who's 1-for-12 (.107 xBA) against him.
Cleveland will counter with the gettable Griffin before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Having just one day of rest after a five-game series with the White Sox will come back to haunt the Guardians in Game 1.
I'd play this to 45%.
Analyst Colby Marchio is also high on Tampa covering the run line in his Guardians vs. Rays predictions.
How to watch Guardians vs Rays Game 1
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla. |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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