Game 2 of the NLCS takes place tonight in Milwaukee, and I've identified my best Dodgers vs. Brewers home run predictions for the contest.
Freddie Freeman and William Contreras headline my best bets, followed by a long shot from Los Angeles.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Oct. 12.
Best Dodgers vs Brewers home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Freddie Freeman |
16% |
 William Contreras |
10% |
| Long shot: Kyle Tucker |
9% |
| 💲HR combo | 408.5x |
Dodgers home run pick: Freddie Freeman (16%)
Play up to 22%.
Freddie Freeman has found his power stroke in the playoffs. He's already clubbed two home runs in just five contests while posting a solid .316 ISO. What really stands out, however, is how consistently Freeman has squared up the baseball.
The veteran owns a 75% hard-hit rate and a 25% barrel rate in the postseason, while his average exit velocity is an impressive 96 mph. That combination of elite contact quality and power gives Freeman a strong underlying profile here.
Freeman will face Logan Henderson in Game 2. While the right-hander has pitched well this postseason, he's also allowed plenty of fly-ball contact. That gives Freeman an avenue to do damage, especially given how often he's been elevating the baseball himself.
Brewers home run pick: William Contreras (10%)
I realize the odds of William Contreras homering in Game 2 are incredibly long, but that's why I'll play this up to 15%.
The catcher has been one of the Brewers' best hitters in this playoff run, batting .316 with a pair of bombs in just five games. Contreras also has a .316 ISO.
The Venezuelan also has a 68.8% hard-hit rate and has put half of his postseason contact in the air. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a tough arm to face, but Contreras is hot, and 14 of his 18 regular-season homers came against righties.
Long-shot home run pick: Kyle Tucker (9%)
Play up to 13%.
Kyle Tucker is batting .294 in the playoffs, and while he has just one home run, I see a clear matchup weakness he can exploit against Henderson.
Of the 14 homers Henderson allowed in the regular season, 10 came against left-handed hitters. He surrendered 1.40 HR/9 against lefties while allowing a 52% fly-ball rate, creating exactly the type of elevated contact that can turn into home runs.
Tucker also hit 12 of his 17 homers against right-handed pitchers this season, giving him the platoon advantage in this matchup.
At 9%, this is a long shot, but Henderson’s vulnerability to left-handed power gives Tucker a legitimate path to going yard.
Dodgers vs Brewers home run combo
Freeman is the Dodgers' hottest hitter right now, and his postseason power numbers back it up. Contreras draws a difficult matchup against Yamamoto, but his production vs. righties keeps him firmly in consideration. Tucker rounds out the combo with the clearest matchup edge, as Henderson has been vulnerable to left-handed power throughout the season.
- HR picks: 21-109, -12.03 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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