Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, September 20.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 20
Keller u17.5 outs (-105)
Peterson o1.5 walks allowed (-125)
Kirby u17.5 outs recorded (+155)
Black u14.5 outs (+135)
Freeland u17.5 outs (+120)
Today’s best SP angles
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Mitch Keller is averaging 89 pitches over his last 10 starts and gets hit hard on the road.
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller does not often see batters after pitch 95. He is averaging 89 pitches over his last 10 games with a 4.72 ERA that jumps to 6.35 on the road, which has been a common theme for him this year.
Keller's K and BB splits are fine, but he is getting hit hard on the road as his H/9 jumps from 8.15 at home to 9.9 on the road over the same amount of innings. That road ERA also stands at 4.82 compared to a 2.84 ERA at home.
I haven't loved the Cincinnati Reds offense of late but a date at Great American Ball Park is a tough setting for a pitcher regardless. He went 17 outs on a hefty 106 pitches there back in June and Keller is 6-3 to the Under this total on the road since June 1. It's a buy to -115 and he projects for just 15.7 outs today.
The move: Mitch Keller Under 17.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
The angle: David Peterson is pitching well but his leash is getting longer because of it.
David Peterson has gone 18+ outs in six of his last seven games and the New York Mets need everything from him today as they sit two games up in the NL wild-card standings. Peterson just saw the Philadelphia Phillies in his last start and went 23 outs on 99 pitches. He managed to throw just one walk, but the longer that leash is and the familiarity that Phillies have in back-to-back starts, the higher chance he has to hit his Over 1.5 BBA at -125.
The New York pitcher has gone Over this number in 13 of 19 starts and the Phillies can walk, especially at the top of the order. The big edges here are the Philadelphia bats having just seen Peterson while the New York pitcher's leash could be in the mid-90s today. Peterson has a 3.9 BB/9 over his career, which puts him at 2.6 walks over six innings of work. I would buy this to -135.
The move: David Peterson Over 1.5 walks allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers
The angle: The Texas bats have an advantage having just seen George Kirby who is paying +155 to go Under his outs market.
I love Under 17.5 outs at plus money and George Kirby is paying +155 today which is always hard to pass up. Now add in the fact that this Texas Rangers lineup just saw him five days ago, and I like it even more.
The Seattle Mariners right-hander dealt in that game, going 21 outs on 85 pitches, but seeing the same lineup in back-to-back starts favors the offense. Texas should have some longer at-bats today and push Kirby, who is averaging 90.7 pitches per start over his last 10 games and is 6-4 to the Under 17.5 outs. He is also a guy whose splits don't favor him on the road with an ERA a point higher and a 7.9 K/9 compared to 9.2 at home.
I'd buy this to +130 as he projects for 16.9 outs on a near-90 pitch count.
The move: George Kirby Under 17.5 outs recorded (+155 at DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals
The angle: It might be sweaty, but Mason Black is not a guy getting to 15 outs with his leash and contact issues.
San Francisco Giants rookie Mason Black has recorded 15 outs just once through six starts. He gives up a ton of hits (37 over 28 innings) and went just 79 pitches and 12 outs in his last start, which wasn't even that bad — two earned runs on six hits.
He carries a 7.07 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP into tonight's start vs. the Kansas City Royals, who boast one of the best home offenses in baseball. That's a huge WHIP considering he has just nine walks over his 28 MLB innings. Black has allowed a home run in every start, owns an ERA+ of 55, and batters have a .945 OPS vs. him this season.
Black is paying plus money on his Under 14.5 outs today and is 5-1 to the Under on this prop with the only Over cashing vs. the lowly Marlins. It will be sweaty, but my buy point is even money. He projects for 13.3 outs.
The move: Mason Black Under 14.5 outs (+135 at bet365)
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: I'll bet and plus-money Under 17.5 outs vs. the Dodgers.
Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland has been worse on the road this year with a 5.98 ERA compared to a 3.75 ERA at Coors Field. He's averaging 86.5 pitches per start over his last 10 games and has gone Under 17.5 outs in 50% of his road starts. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a different beast for opposing pitchers and Chavez Ravine will be bopping after Shohei Ohtani's historic night last night in Miami.
Freeland's out market closed at 15.5 vs. the Cubs in his last start and 15.5 vs. the Brewers two starts ago. His outs market has closed at 17.5 just twice over his last 10 starts and that came vs. the Marlins and Angels. This number is dead wrong and should be 15.5. He projects for 14.9 and I'm putting two units on this and possibly another on his Under 3.5 strikeouts at +120.
The move: Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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