Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Predictions for MLB July 4

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Jul 4, 2026 , 09:42 AM ET • 4 min read

We're in for a clean first inning as two studs take the hill in Houston.

Drew Rasmussen Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) throws a pitch.

The Detroit Tigers visit the Texas Rangers this afternoon, while a pitcher's duel takes place between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros. 

Those two matchups will headline my best NRFI and YRFI predictions. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 4. 

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick Odds
Tigers/Rangers - YRFI -103
Rays/Astros - NRFI -131
White Sox/Guardians - NRFI -121
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Add as a preferred source on Google

Tigers at Rangers: YRFI (-103)

The Detroit Tigers visit the Texas Rangers tonight, and there are multiple potential pathways to runs early on. Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the visitors, and while he's been very impressive lately with a 1.74 FIP across his last three outings, the Rangers are hitting .274 in the first inning and have a 114 wRC+ over the last month. 

Kumar Rocker, meanwhile, counters for Texas, and he's struggled immensely with a 5-9 NRFI/YRFI record this season. The righty is known for getting into trouble in the first inning, and that's bad news against a Tigers lineup batting .276 in the first inning and posting a 115 wRC+ in their last six games

Rocker is definitely the more vulnerable arm right now, but both offenses are capable of producing out of the gates. 

I'll play this pick up to -130. 

  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: DSN, RSN

Rays at Astros: NRFI (-131)

We have quite the matchup on the mound between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros tonight. Drew Rasmussen has a five-game streak without allowing a run in the first inning, and he owns a 13-3 NRFI/YRFI record overall. The right-hander has a solid 3.13 xERA over his previous two appearances

Houston has been kept off the scoresheet in the opening frame in three of their last four games, and they have a poor 78 wRC+ across the last two weeks. As for Hunter Brown, he's been dominant since returning from injury. The righty hasn't allowed a run in the first in five outings. Tampa is scoreless in the first in back-to-back games. 

With two thriving arms taking the ball and a pair of offenses far from their best lately, I expect a quiet first. 

I'll play this pick up to -140.  

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Rays.TV, Space City Home Network

White Sox at Guardians: NRFI (-121)

The Cleveland Guardians send Parker Messick to the mound tonight, and he's been absolutely lights out early on. Across 17 starts, the left-hander hasn't allowed a run in the first inning once, sporting a perfect 17-0 NRFI/YRFI record. He also owns a 2.13 FIP across his last two outings.

The Chicago White Sox haven't scored in the opening frame in two straight games, and they're batting just .213 in the first. 

As for Chicago starter Sean Burke, he has just an 8-4 NRFI/YRFI record. However, Burke has a 3.02 xERA over his previous two appearances and has allowed just 0.77 HR/9 over that span. More importantly, the Guardians are scoreless in the first in three in a row, and they've posted just 82 wRC+ across the last 13 games. 

Messick will deal, and Burke has a real chance to come out of the opening frame unscathed due to Cleveland's offensive inconsistencies. 

I'll play this pick up to -130.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Guardians.TV, CHSN
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • NRFI/YRFI picks: 24-48, -5.88 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications including ClutchPoints, Gino Hard, and RG, where he plies his trade as a writer and editor.

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo