There's no shortage of MLB picks on a truncated Thursday slate!
Our MLB expert picks are targeting a couple of totals tonight. See why the Yankees and Orioles will struggle to score on August 20.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: SF/CLE u7.5 |
-108 |
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
-108 |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR ML |
+145 |
 Joe Osborne: NYY/BAL u7.5 |
-104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Giants vs Guardians Under 7.5
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
There's still room for this fall from 52 cents, as some books are already as short as 55 cents. It’s a perfect getaway spot in an interleague afternoon game between two teams that combined for just one run yesterday.
The Giants have the tougher task with Gavin Williams on the mound, and San Francisco has scored just two runs in the series. The Giants have also scored one or fewer runs in five of their last 10 games and now head to Boston tonight after the game.
Cleveland’s offense has been shut out in three of its last six and has to travel to altitude tonight to open a series against the Rockies that they need to sweep. Landen Roupp isn’t a top-end pitcher, but he has handled sub-.500 teams well, with the Under not losing in his last seven starts against losing teams.
There is a chance this moves to a flat 7 today if the afternoon lineups are weak.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBCSBA, CleGuardians.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
The Atlanta Braves are trading at 52 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 57-cent favorite, giving us a sizable edge at the current price.
The White Sox are expected to stack seven left-handed bats against righty Grant Holmes, but many of those hitters have long swings geared toward pull-side power. Holmes has an ideal counter, as he is comfortable attacking lefties with his four-seam fastball at the top of the zone to change their eye level before going to his best pitch, a sharp slider down and in, to finish the at-bat.
If Holmes can execute those two pitches, he should be able to generate plenty of swings and misses, allowing him to keep the White Sox offense in check.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVision, CHSN
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 41¢ (+145) at Polymarket
This is a good spot to take a shot. The Toronto Blue Jays have all the momentum after coming just a run short of completing a seemingly insurmountable comeback following a couple of mind-numbing errors from Jesus Sanchez in left field.
This type of resiliency should carry over against Tampa Bay Rays' Ian Seymour, who the Jays own a .325 average and .439 xSLG against across 40 at-bats.
On the other side is Shane Bieber, who's rocking a much more respectable 3.63 ERA in August after two strong starts against the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. With the Rays owning just a .290 xwOBA over 52 plate appearances against the right-hander, I'm riding the Jays to win their seventh straight series.
I'd play this up to 45 cents at Polymarket.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Rays.TV, SN
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Yankees vs Orioles Under 7.5
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
Under 7.5 runs is the play in Baltimore, where Gerrit Cole should lead another strong Yankees pitching performance.
Cole has allowed only four earned runs across his last four starts, while nine of his last 10 starts have gone Under. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA over the past two weeks.
New York’s offense has been awful during that same stretch, ranking 25th in OPS with MLB’s highest strikeout rate. That sets up well for Kyle Bradish, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.
We could also get a boost from 11.4 mph winds blowing in at Camden Yards.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Prime Video, MASN
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| MIL ML | -131 |
| Read analysis in our Mariners vs. Brewers predictions | |
| WAS ML | +146 |
| Read analysis in our Nationals vs. Rangers predictions | |
| CHW ML | -107 |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. White Sox predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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