It's a getaway slate today, but home run props are still popping.
Alec Burleson has had Brady Singer's number, and Great American Ball Park is the best setting on the board, while right-handed bats get a boost vs. Robert Gasser, and Julio Rodriguez is answering the call.
Plus, Cam Smith is the bat that stands out vs. the gift of Grayson Rodriguez.
These are my favorite MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 20.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Alec Burleson |
+325 |
 Julio Rodriguez |
+442 |
 Cam Smith |
+575 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +13440 |
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+325)
The big lefty bat has a plus-plus matchup today in the early game, and the price is still on the good side of three dollars.
Alec Burleson has taken Brady Singer deep twice in nine career plate appearances, and lefties have hit Singer hard this year. Left-handed hitters are batting .304 against Singer with 18 homers, compared to just six allowed to right-handed batters.
With the small slate today, it’s also a good time to pivot to the best HR setting on the board. Great American Ball Park is the best HR park in MLB and plays 17% better than the average park in terms of HR factors. The Reds’ bullpen also has the sixth-worst ERA in August, so the HR potential remains after Singer hits the showers.
Burleson has a great matchup and is 45 points above the fair price. He’s also swinging a great stick, with six homers and a 1.102 OPS in August.
- Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Cardinals.TV
Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+442)
I have a need today for a right-handed bat against Milwaukee starter Robert Gasser, and Julio Rodríguez at +400 or better fits that need.
Gasser is coming off a career-high 102 pitches but averages 87 pitches per start, and he’s already at 100 innings this year after throwing just 90 innings combined in 2024 and 2025. After Shane Bieber, Gasser has the highest HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today.
Right-handed hitters are batting .290 against Gasser this year and account for 85% of the homers he’s allowed. That’s where J-Rod comes in. He leads the team in xwOBA this month, has gone deep three times, and leads all Seattle batters in WAR this month despite a negative defensive rating.
All the right-handed bats, including Taylor Ward and Randy Arozarena, are projecting +EV today.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Cam Smith (+575)
Grayson Rodriguez is always a great pitcher fade. He ranks in the bottom 50 among MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate, but those numbers could be even worse considering he’s been a little lucky.
Only three other starters have a worse HardHit% than G-Rod’s 48.6%, while his 35% ground-ball rate is also one of the worst in baseball.
Rodriguez is a 7.00 ERA pitcher who gets barreled and gives up plenty of fly balls. Lefties have hit him at a better rate, but right-handed hitters have done just as much damage when it comes to home runs.
Cam Smith at +575 stands out as the best play on the Houston side. He’s been the team’s best hitter this month, pacing the Astros in homers (4), slugging (.600) and wOBA (.427), while ranking second in HardHit% behind Yordan Alvarez.
Most bats in this Houston lineup are good bets at +475 or better.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, SCHN
- HR picks: 32-157, -4.07 units
Today’s HR combo
| Alec Burleson |
Trade Now +13440 |
| Julio Rodriguez |
|
| Cam Smith |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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