The second installment of this four-game AL West series gets underway on Saturday afternoon with the first-place Texas Rangers hosting the second-place Houston Astros.
Houston won the first game 5-3 after a decisive sixth inning on Friday, but they’re slight underdogs in the MLB odds today.
Will the Astros take care of business once again, or can the Rangers exact some revenge? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs Rangers on Saturday, July 1.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers predictions
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is slated to take the mound for the Texas Rangers in this matchup, and he should be a great candidate to back. Through 16 starts this season, Eovaldi is 9-3 with a commanding 2.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 61st percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%. Specifically, we are going to back Eovaldi to generate swings and misses.
Entering Saturday, he ranks in the 53rd percentile or higher in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, the right-hander possesses a devastating split finger with a 34.1 Whiff% and 23.1 PutAway%.
Currently, you can find his MLB player prop for strikeouts as low as 5.5 at BetMGM. Eovaldi has recorded at least six strikeouts in three of his past five starts.
This trend is likely to continue Saturday against the Houston Astros. While the Astros are just a few games back of Texas in the divisional standings, it is certainly not because of their hitting.
They are not a “bad hitting team,” but they certainly are not great either, ranking in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, average, and SLG. Additionally, there are an abundance of guys on Houston prone to striking out, especially once you move past the first three batters.
Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 23% this season. These strikeout woes for Houston are likely to continue against Eovaldi.
Through 104 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Astros lineup possesses a 20.2 K% and 20.6 Whiff%. Finally, Eovaldi has recorded at least six strikeouts in four of his past seven starts against the Astros.
My best bet: Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay
Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Under 8.5
Rangers moneyline
We already covered Eovaldi’s dominance as well as Houston’s average performance at the dish, but what about the other way around? Slated to take the mound for the Astros is right-hander Hunter Brown, who is putting together a strong sophomore campaign.
Through 15 starts, Brown is 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also strong, ranking in the 67th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and K%.
That should be good enough to limit a terrific Rangers lineup that ranks in the Top 2 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS. I still like Brown to limit the damage, so it would not be shocking to see a 5-3 or 6-2 Rangers victory on Saturday.
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Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened much closer to a pick ‘em before some steam brought up Texas to the -125 range. That movement makes sense, given that Eovaldi is a stronger pitcher than Brown while the Rangers boast a clear advantage in the hitting department.
With that said, despite Texas’ dominance at the dish this season, Brown is more than capable of hanging in there. That brings us to the total, which opened at eight and has since been bumped up to 8.5.
The tick-up is not surprising with the Rangers’ powerhouse lineup, and despite the Astros’ average performance at the plate this year, they should not be overlooked either. However, in an Eovaldi and Brown duel, I still like the Under as long as you grab it at 8.5 instead of eight.
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Trend to know
Nathan Eovaldi has recorded at least six strikeouts in three of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers
Astros vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ATTH, BSSW |
Starting pitchers
Hunter Brown (6-4, 3.62 ERA): It has been a strong sophomore campaign for the right-hander. His underlying metrics suggest that these surface-level stats are not fluky results, ranking in the 67th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and K%.
Nathan Eovaldi (9-3, 2.82 ERA): While Brown has put together a strong campaign, Eovaldi’s has been even better. Not only are both his surface-level stats and underlying metrics excellent, but he should also be a great candidate to back in the strikeout department. Entering Saturday, he ranks in the 53rd percentile or higher in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, the right-hander possesses a devastating split finger with a 34.1 Whiff% and 23.1 PutAway%.
