Astros vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Houston Heats up in San Diego

The Astros have been cold lately, dropping three of four. Friday presents a get-right spot, however, as the Padres send Jake Arrieta to the mound. Our picks and predictions take a look at how Arrieta impacts the MLB betting landscape in San Diego.

Last Updated: Sep 3, 2021 12:38 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Altuve Houston Astros MLB
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The Houston Astros and San Diego Padres begin a three-game series on Friday night at Petco Park. The Astros have lost three of their last four coming into this one, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can turn it around in Southern California. 

Will San Diego take advantage of an ice-cold Houston team? Continue reading for our free MLB betting Astros vs. Padres picks and predictions for September 3.

Astros vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Friday, September 3, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports San Diego, ATT SportsNet-SW

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Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy (6-3, 3.38 ERA): Urquidy threw five innings of one-run ball in his latest Triple-A rehab assignment, so the righty should be ready to turn in five or six innings in this game. The righty is coming off of a shoulder injury, but he was spinning it pretty well before that and appears to be healthy now. For what it’s worth, the 26-year-old is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA when pitching in night games this year, so he’ll be happy to be out of Minute Maid Park in his return to the rotation.

Jake Arrieta (5-12, 7.13 ERA): There aren’t many pitchers in the league that have been as bad as Arrieta this year, and his first start in a Padres jersey went extremely poorly. The veteran gave up five earned runs in 3 1-3 innings of work in a road start against the Colorado Rockies. The righty has now allowed at least five runs in four of his last five outings. This matchup against one of the league’s best offenses will really be a test.  

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: C Jason Castro (Out).
Padres: RP Drew Pomeranz (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

This game is definitely one in which the sharps are on the Padres, but backing San Diego just isn’t something we’re going to advise in this one. So, if you want to play this game, make it a small play on Houston so you don’t leave yourself overexposed in a game that might be a trap by Vegas. 

Sure, there might be reasons behind the scenes that could lead to Arrieta throwing it back and turning in a great outing, but the 35-year-old has been a disaster for years now. He has given up 26 runs over his last 17 innings on the mound, and he has also allowed 40 hits and six homers over his last five outings. Considering no team in the league has a higher batting average against right-handed pitching than the Astros, this doesn’t seem like the matchup to cure his problems. The Astros hitters that have faced Arrieta also happen to have a combined .441 average in 44 at-bats. 

As for Urquidy, the righty had been pitching well before getting injured and he has looked solid in his rehab starts. Facing actual major league competition is going to be a change, but he should be able to settle in and give the Astros a chance here. 

PREDICTION: Astros ML (-134)

Over/Under pick

With Urquidy having just come back from an injury, he could struggle to get himself going early in this game. Don’t be surprised if he gives up a run or two very early and then ends up with a final line of something like five or six innings pitched and three runs allowed. From there, the Astros bullpen can also give up a run or two, but it’s just very hard to imagine Houston not pounding Arrieta in this game. 

That might go against what some very powerful sharps think, but the numbers don’t lie and this game should end up being pretty high-scoring one way or another. 

PREDICTION: Over 9.0 (-110) 

Astros vs Padres betting card

  • Astros ML (-134)
  • Over 9.0 (-110) 

Picks made on 9/3/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET

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