Although there won’t be a Triple Crown winner this year with Sovereignty skipping Pimlico’s biggest race, the Preakness Stakes odds still offer plenty of opportunity for horseplayers to find a long shot with real value.
If you’re not up for digging through all the stats yourself, I’ve already done the homework. While skimming Equibase’s past performances, I spotted a “wiseguy” horse who caught my eye.
Read on for my free betting picks and see which long shot could pay off big this weekend.
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Preakness Stakes long shot prediction: American Promise (+1500 at FanDuel Racing)
"Didn't this horse just finish 16th in the Derby?"
I'm willing to bet that's one of the first thoughts that ran through your head. Honestly, you're right to ask the question because American Promise didn't look too promising in the Derby. He broke terribly, rushed up, couldn't find a lane late, and faded.
However, I'm drawing a line through the race. It wasn't his best day at the track. He lost, and quite frankly, he was never expected to win. So, none of this comes as a huge shock unless you've already fallen off your rocker.
Nevertheless, American Promise does have some potential. His most notable performance to date is an emphatic eight-length victory in the Virginia Derby. In said victory, he posted a strong 102 Equibase Speed Figure. And guess what? He did it at a distance comparable to the Preakness.
Yes, I know the Virginia Derby was nothing special. Most of the horses in that race couldn't win a Triple Crown race on their best day. That said, those horses didn't have the bloodline of American Promise.
American Promise is well-bred for classic distances as a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify and out of a Tapit mare, both proven sources of stamina and class. Of course, I know Justify's offspring have been hit-or-miss, but hey, we haven't even talked about American Promise's connections, notably his trainer.
His trainer is none other than "The Coach" D. Wayne Lukas. If I'm being honest, he's easily one of the best trainers in the sport's history, bar none. Lukas has won the Preakness Stakes seven times, the latest being in 2024 with Seize The Grey, a horse that paid $21.90.
Lukas always knows what buttons to push, and based on what I'm hearing out of him this week, American Promise seems to be in a good spot.
Yes, I get it, his jockey, Nik Juarez, isn't a household name. Heck, I don't think even the most seasoned horseplayers give him much thought. "He's just that guy who rides in Jersey."
I'd much rather be underestimated than well-known, though. All of this works in our favor, too. Journalism and Sandman will be hammered in the betting, so I wouldn't be surprised if American Promise's price got pushed up to 20-1.
The horse might not finish on the board, but I'd much rather lose money trying to chase a price rather than piss it away betting chalk.
"The Coach" has American Promise ready to race. There's no clear favorite, despite what the morning-line odds say. Juarez is hungry for that big marquee win. There's never been a better time than now to get it.
Let's roll the dice on American Promise.
Preakness Stakes betting resources
- Preakness Stakes horses
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- What time does the Preakness Stakes start and end?
Preakness Stakes odds
Horses are listed here by their Preakness Stakes odds, with their Preakness Stakes post positions on the left.
| Post | Horse | * |
** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Journalism | +160 | 8-5 | +160 |
| 7 | Sandman | +400 | 4-1 | +400 |
| 6 | River Thames | +450 | 9-2 | +450 |
| 8 | Clever Again | +500 | 5-1 | +500 |
| 1 | Goal Oriented | +600 | 6-1 | +600 |
| 4 | Heart of Honor | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 3 | American Promise | +1500 | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 5 | Pay Billy | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 9 | Gosger | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 odds are not available in the United States
