A couple of key Kentucky Derby prep races will take place just before the calendar flips to March as Aqueduct hosts the Gotham Stakes this Saturday, while Gulfstream hosts the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Our free betting picks and horse racing predictions size up both races set for February 28, and tell you which runners will grab those coveted Derby points.
Gotham Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Aqueduct Race 10
- Post time: 5:18 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Balboa | 6-1 | +600 | +350 |
| 2 | Hammond | 5-1 | +500 | +650 |
| 3 | Crown the Buckeye | 4-1 | +400 | +800 |
| 4 | Fourth and One | 20-1 | +2000 | +2500 |
| 5 | Right to Party | 8-1 | +800 | +1400 |
| 6 | Iron Honor | 6-5 | +120 | -111 |
| 7 | Exhibition Only | 15-1 | +1500 | +2000 |
| 8 | Creole Chrome | SCR | OTB | OTB |
| 9 | Dirty Rich | 10-1 | +1000 | +1600 |
Odds as of 2-27.
If No. 6 Iron Honor (6-5, morning-line favorite) is able to replicate the speed figure he earned in his debut victory, then the competition is running for second.
Iron Honor cruised to a 1 1/2-length victory at first asking going six furlongs over this course last December. Successfully stretching out to one mile is not guaranteed, but since he's by Kentucky Derby-winner Nyquist out of a mare by Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, it's a good bet that he'll take to the trip.
This Chad Brown trainee will once again have the services of jockey Manny Franco.
No. 2 Hammond (5-1) intrigues shipping up from hot, sunny Florida to cold, gloomy New York. He was unprepared and off slowly in the Swale Stakes when last seen, but had won each of his last two starts at Gulfstream Park, including the Juvenile Sprint Stakes last November.
Being by the talented sprinter Charlatan, I think the one-mile trip will tax him just enough that he'll have to settle for second under Jamie Rodriguez, who gets the leg-up from trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
Best bet: $20 exacta 6/2
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Fountain of Youth Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Gulfstream Race 14
- Post time: 6:11 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV, NBCSN
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Hole | 8-1 | +800 | +1000 |
| 2 | Rockies Balboa | 20-1 | +2000 | +1000 |
| 3 | Talkin | 15-1 | +1500 | +4000 |
| 4 | Commandment | 2-1 | +200 | +300 |
| 5 | Bravaro | 8-1 | +800 | +900 |
| 6 | Chief Wallabee | 9-2 | +450 | +450 |
| 7 | Napoleon Solo | 7-2 | +350 | +333 |
| 8 | Bull by the Horns | 30-1 | +3000 | +10000 |
| 9 | Global Aviator | SCR | OTB | OTB |
| 10 | Solitude Dude | 5-1 | +500 | +350 |
| 11 | Lost Money | 50-1 | +5000 | +10000 |
Odds as of 2-27.
No. 4 Commandment (2-1, morning-line favorite) made his stakes debut a winning one when last seen, smoking the competition in the Much Macho Man here going one mile. The extra half-furlong shouldn't bother him, and Irad Ortiz Jr. once again sees fit to ride for trainer Brad Cox.
Based on that last-out effort, coupled with the fact that he should get a solid pace to close into with Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude doing battle, Commandment is the top choice.
No. 6 Chief Wallabee (9-2) is the most logical alternative stretching out for conditioner Bill Mott. Junior Alvarado will once again pilot this talented son of Constitution, who aced his debut going seven panels.
There's distance influence on the bottom side of the pedigree too (out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare), and he should be the first to pounce on the tiring frontrunners.
Best bet: $10 exacta box 4/6 ($20)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | October 31, 2025 | Del Mar | Ted Noffey |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 17, 2026 | Fair Grounds | Golden Tempo |
| Holy Bull Stakes | January 31 | Gulfstream Park | Nearly |
| Withers Stakes | February 6 | Aqueduct | Talk to Me Jimmy |
| Southwest Stakes | February 6 | Oaklawn Park | Silent Tactic |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 7 | Santa Anita Park | Plutarch |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | Renegade |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 14 | Fair Grounds | Paladin |
| Sunland Derby | February 15 | Sunland Park | Pavlovian |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 21 | Turfway Park | Great White |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | February 28 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | February 28 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Rebel Stakes | March 1 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 7 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 14 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 21 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 21 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 28 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 28 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 28 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 4 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 4 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 4 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 11 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 2 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
