It's another big Saturday for Kentucky Derby preps, with the Tampa Bay Derby and the San Felipe Stakes on the docket.
My free betting picks attempt to separate the three top contenders in the Tampa Bay Derby, and tell you if Bob Baffert can raise his Derby stock with Brant in the San Felipe on March 7.
Tampa Bay Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Tampa Bay Downs Race 11
- Post time: 5:35 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redland Rebels | 10-1 | +1000 | +2000 |
| 2 | Talkin | 15-1 | +1500 | +1200 |
| 3 | Roger That Dana | 15-1 | +1500 | +2500 |
| 4 | Hulkamania | 20-1 | +2000 | +1600 |
| 5 | Powershift | 7-2 | +350 | +300 |
| 6 | Further Ado | 9-5 | +180 | +200 |
| 7 | Thunder Buck | 20-1 | +2000 | +1200 |
| 8 | The Puma | 8-1 | +800 | +1200 |
| 9 | Canaletto | 5-2 | +250 | +250 |
Odds as of 3-6.
No. 6 Further Ado (9-5, morning-line favorite) gets a tepid nod as he makes his 2026 debut.
After two nondescript results sprinting at Saratoga, Further Ado burst onto the Derby scene with a 20-length win vs. 11 other maidens going today's 1 1/16th-mile distance at Keeneland. While he did "bounce" in the speed figure department (ran a much lower figure after running an abnormally high one the race before), he was still talented enough to take the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last time out.
Brad Cox has this son of Gun Runner working lights-out in the morning, and Irad Ortiz Jr. keeps the call, opting for Further Ado over No. 5 Powershift (7-2).
No. 9 Canaletto (5-2) aced his debut by eight lengths going the one-turn mile at Gulfstream. The $1 million son of Into Mischief needs to prove he can handle the two-turn route now, but it's encouraging to see Flavien Prat fly in for the call, skipping a trip to Santa Anita to potentially ride Brant.
Powershift earned a very high figure in a runner-up result over this course in his only try to date on February 7. More distance should only help this son of Constitution.
Best bet: $2 trifecta box 5/6/9, $4 exacta 6/5,9 ($20)
New Users
$500 No Sweat First Bet! Claim Now
See FanDuel T&Cs
FanDuel Racing offer available only in AR, CA, DE, ID, FL, MN, MT, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, WA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
New Users
Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets! Claim Now
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
San Felipe Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Santa Anita Race 8
- Post time: 6:41 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flashy Fritz | 30-1 | +3000 | +10000 |
| 2 | Start the Ride | 12-1 | +1200 | +2000 |
| 3 | Secured Freedom | 8-1 | +800 | +550 |
| 4 | Brant | EVEN | +100 | -120 |
| 5 | Potente | 9-2 | +450 | +500 |
| 6 | So Happy | 2-1 | +200 | +350 |
| 7 | Robusta | 20-1 | +2000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 3-6.
No. 4 Brant (EVEN, morning-line favorite) will be tough to beat if he runs back to his two-year-old form. He won each of his first two starts at Del Mar, including the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, before settling for third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind the well-regarded Ted Noffey.
Trainer Bob Baffert appears to have Brant fully cranked for his sophomore debut, but these types of layoff returners are never a sure thing. Prat not flying in for the call is a discouraging sign.
No. 2 Start the Ride (12-1) is a tempting longshot making only his second official start. He was declared a non-starter after a gate mishap on November 16, then returned to take the Cal Cup Derby two months later at this course and distance.
I have questions regarding Potente and So Happy around two turns based on pedigree, but I have no such qualms with this son of Upstart. I don't think we've seen the best of Start the Ride yet, and we're getting a good price to learn if he has more to offer on Saturday afternoon.
Best bet: $15 exacta 4/2, $5 win 2 ($20)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | October 31, 2025 | Del Mar | Ted Noffey |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 17, 2026 | Fair Grounds | Golden Tempo |
| Holy Bull Stakes | January 31 | Gulfstream Park | Nearly |
| Withers Stakes | February 6 | Aqueduct | Talk to Me Jimmy |
| Southwest Stakes | February 6 | Oaklawn Park | Silent Tactic |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 7 | Santa Anita Park | Plutarch |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | Renegade |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 14 | Fair Grounds | Paladin |
| Sunland Derby | February 15 | Sunland Park | Pavlovian |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 21 | Turfway Park | Great White |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | February 28 | Gulfstream Park | Commandment |
| Gotham Stakes | February 28 | Aqueduct | Iron Honor |
| Rebel Stakes | March 1 | Oaklawn Park | Class President |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 7 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 14 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 21 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 21 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 28 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 28 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 28 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 4 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 4 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 4 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 11 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 2 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
