The Road to the Kentucky Derby is down to the nitty-gritty, with two key preps coming up on Saturday, March 28 in the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby.
Each of the last three Derby winners made their final tune-up start in one of these races, so these Grade I events could prove crucial in determining the outcome of the "Run for the Roses."
Here are my free betting picks for the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby.
Florida Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Gulfstream Race 14
- Post time: 6:42 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV, NBCSN
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albus | 20-1 | +2000 | +8000 |
| 2 | Chief Wallabee | 2-1 | +200 | +175 |
| 3 | Wayne's Law | 15-1 | +1500 | +1400 |
| 4 | Commandment | 5-2 | +250 | +175 |
| 5 | SCR | OTB | OTB | |
| 6 | Nearly | 3-1 | +300 | +350 |
| 7 | Timeless Victory | 20-1 | +2000 | +4000 |
| 8 | The Puma | 9-2 | +450 | +700 |
| 9 | Gregarious | 50-1 | +5000 | +10000 |
Odds as of 3-28.
No. 2 Chief Wallabee (2-1, morning-line favorite) was narrowly beaten by No. 4 Commandment (5-2) in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes last time out, but I think he'll get revenge in the Grade I Florida Derby on Saturday.
Chief Wallabee has the breeding to appreciate stretching out from 1 1/16th-miles to 1 1/8-miles, being by Constitution out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare. By contrast, Commandment has sprint influence on both sides of the pedigree, as his sire is Into Mischief, and his dam Sippican Harbor.
No. 6 Nearly (3-1) can break up the chalk exacta if he brings his A-game here. He's won three in a row, all at Gulfstream, capped by the Grade III Holy Bull last time out.
Best bet: $10 exacta 2/4,6 ($20)
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Arkansas Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Oaklawn Race 13
- Post time: 7:48 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV, FS1
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redland Rebels | 15-1 | +1500 | +1500 |
| 2 | Silent Tactic | 5-2 | +250 | +333 |
| 3 | Blackout Time | 6-1 | +600 | +500 |
| 4 | Bricklin | 20-1 | +2000 | +1000 |
| 5 | Taptastic | 20-1 | +2000 | +2500 |
| 6 | Renegade | 3-2 | +150 | +175 |
| 7 | SCR | OTB | OTB | |
| 8 | Exosome | 20-1 | +2000 | +5000 |
| 9 | Litmus Test | 5-1 | +500 | +500 |
Odds as of 3-28.
No. 2 Silent Tactic (5-2) has been a fixture on the Arkansas road to the Kentucky Derby, sandwiching a runaway win in the Grade III Southwest Stakes with runner-up results in the Smarty Jones and the Grade II Rebel.
He was getting to the winner of the Rebel, Class President, but the wire came too soon. Silent Tactic gets an extra 1/16th-mile to work with in the Grade I Arkansas Derby, and the son of Tacitus should relish the added ground.
I also appreciate that his Beyer Speed Figures have improved from race-to-race as he continues to mature.
Best bet: $20 win 2
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | October 31, 2025 | Del Mar | Ted Noffey |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 17, 2026 | Fair Grounds | Golden Tempo |
| Holy Bull Stakes | January 31 | Gulfstream Park | Nearly |
| Withers Stakes | February 6 | Aqueduct | Talk to Me Jimmy |
| Southwest Stakes | February 6 | Oaklawn Park | Silent Tactic |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 7 | Santa Anita Park | Plutarch |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | Renegade |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 14 | Fair Grounds | Paladin |
| Sunland Derby | February 15 | Sunland Park | Pavlovian |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 21 | Turfway Park | Great White |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | February 28 | Gulfstream Park | Commandment |
| Gotham Stakes | February 28 | Aqueduct | Iron Honor |
| Rebel Stakes | March 1 | Oaklawn Park | Class President |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 7 | Santa Anita Park | Potente |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | The Puma |
| Virginia Derby | March 14 | Colonial Downs | Incredibolt |
| Louisiana Derby | March 21 | Fair Grounds | Emerging Market |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 21 | Turfway Park | Fulleffort |
| Arkansas Derby | March 28 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 28 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 28 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 4 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 4 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 4 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 11 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 2 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
