The third major of the 2026 golf season is three weeks away, and Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy remain the clear favorites by the U.S. Open odds. Golf's third major returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., for the first time since Brooks Koepka's victory in 2018. Scheffler will look to complete the career grand slam, and he's being given a 15% win probability via Kalshi to do so.
While I agree with Scheffler (+567 U.S. Open odds) as the favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open, the miserable playing conditions (for players) can help to level the playing field for our golf picks. One bad hole can derail the whole tournament.
🏆 U.S. Open odds (2026): Who'll win at Shinnecock Hills?
The 2026 U.S. Open trading market at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — opened after the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler opened with an 18% win probability, but that has come down to 15%. Rory McIlroy dropped from 13% to 8%.
| Golfer |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
+567 |
15% |
 Rory McIlroy |
+1150 | 8% |
 Jon Rahm |
+1329 | 7% |
 Cameron Young |
+1900 | 5% |
 Xander Schauffele |
+1900 | 5% |
 Ludvig Aberg |
+2400 | 4% |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
+2400 | 4% |
 Bryson DeChambeau |
+3233 | 3% |
 Brooks Koepka |
+3233 | 3% |
 Collin Morikawa |
+3233 | 3% |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
+3233 | 3% |
 Tyrrell Hatton |
+4900 | 2% |
 Chris Gotterup |
+4900 | 2% |
 Justin Thomas |
+4900 | 2% |
 Hideki Matsuyama |
+4900 | 2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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⭐ U.S. Open favorites
Scottie Scheffler (15%, +567)
Scottie Scheffler will head to Shinnecock looking to become the seventh golfer to complete the career Grand Slam, and his U.S. Open results would suggest he's going to get it done sooner rather than later. He's finished inside the Top 10 in four of the last five editions.
Rory McIlroy (8%, +1150)
The now six-time major champion has been incredibly consistent at the U.S. Open over the last seven years, and it's a miracle he hasn't been able to notch a second victory considering he's finished runner-up twice over that span (LACC in 2023 and Pinehurst in 2024).
You heard The Captain 🫡
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) March 26, 2026
The U.S. Open demands more. pic.twitter.com/EDN4NizaWW
⛳ Shinnecock Hills Golf Club course info
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a historic links-style layout in Southampton, New York, originally designed by William Flynn, that plays as a Par 70 stretching over 7,400 yards. The course has hosted the U.S. Open multiple times, most recently in 2018, and remains a staple in the championship's rotation.
🏌️ U.S. Open field
The 2026 U.S. Open field has been capped at 156 golfers. The field contains eight amateurs and 12 past champions. The following 16 players recently secured a berth in the field via final qualifier:
- Pter Uihlein
- Tom Kim
- Cooper Dossey
- Manav Shah
- Jimmy Stranger
- Graeme McDowell
- Adrien Dumont De Chassart
- T.K. Kim
- Caleb Surrat
- Nathan Kimsey
- Rocco Repetto Taylor
- Filippo Celli
- Matthew Jordan
- Angel Hidalgo
- Niklas Norgaard
- Ugo Coussaud
📖 U.S. Open opening odds
| Golfer | Opening odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler |
+400 |
| Rory McIlroy |
+900 |
| Bryson DeChambeau |
+1200 |
| Jon Rahm |
+1400 |
| Ludvig Åberg |
+2000 |
| Xander Schauffele |
+2000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood |
+2500 |
| Collin Morikawa |
+3000 |
| Justin Thomas |
+3500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
+3500 |
 Viktor Hovland |
+3500 |
| Brooks Koepka |
+4000 |
 Joaquin Niemann |
+4000 |
 Patrick Cantlay |
+4000 |
Opening odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
📜 U.S. Open past winner odds
Let's take a look at some recent U.S. Open winners and their closing odds to win:
| Year | Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  J.J. Spaun |
+15000 |
| 2024 | Bryson DeChambeau |
+2000 |
| 2023 |  Wyndham Clark |
+10000 |
| 2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick |
+3000 |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm |
+1000 |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau |
+2200 |
| 2019 |  Gary Woodland |
+8000 |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka |
+2000 |
| 2017 | Brooks Koepka |
+3000 |
| 2016 |  Dustin Johnson |
+1500 |
| 2015 |  Jordan Spieth |
+800 |
Closing odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
⏭️ U.S. Open upcoming venues
| Year | Course | Location |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, CA |
| 2028 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, NY |
| 2029 | Pinehurst Resort & Country Club | Pinehurst, NC |
| 2030 | Merion Golf Club | Ardmore, PA |
| 2031 | Riviera Country Club | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2032 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, CA |
⚖️ How to trade on the U.S. Open
The U.S. Open is one of the biggest and best golf events of the year, so naturally, many will be placing their first golf trades on the tournament. If that happens to be you, we have you covered with our beginner's guide to how to bet on golf.
The most popular way to trade on golf is by simply picking the winner, which is referred to as an outright. There are plenty of other ways to wager, however, including top finishers, head-to-head matchups, and plenty of props.
❓ U.S. Open odds FAQs
Who has the best odds to win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the 2026 U.S. Open at +567, with a win probability of 15%. Remember, odds are subject to change, so the favorite can shift as results and news move the market.
How often are 2026 U.S. Open odds updated?
Books can adjust U.S. Open futures at any time, especially after PGA Tour events, major news, or heavy trading action. On this page, the odds shown reflect the timestamp listed in the odds table. If you’re comparing prices, refresh the page and check the book’s current listing.
Do favorites usually win the U.S. Open?
Not always. U.S. Open outrights are a deep market, and even elite players win at a low rate in a single-event sample. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favorite. Use favorites as a starting point, then compare price to course fit, current form, and alternative markets like Top 10/Top 20.
What’s the best way to trade the U.S. Open besides outrights?
If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher markets or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.
