Scottie Scheffler is the favorite by the Tour Championship odds for the 2026 PGA Tour finale this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
Scheffler has a 21% win probability by the golf odds at Kalshi – one of our best prediction market apps. The leader in the season-long FedEx Cup standings paces the 30-man field, with Rory McIlroy the closest competition, according to Kalshi traders, with an 8.2% chance to win.
We have you covered with golf picks all week after hitting on Wyndham Clark to win last week's BMW Championship.
- Tour Championship format: The 2026 Tour Championship will be played without starting strokes as a 72-hole stroke play event. All 30 players in the field will begin Thursday's first round at even par, and the FedEx Cup will be won by the golfer with the lowest 72-hole score.
⛳ Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Rory McIlroy (8.3%) — McIlroy is playing less and less at this stage of his career, and I trust him most at the courses where he's had previous success; he'll now go for a fourth win at East Lake and won't need to come from 5-plus strokes back as he did in his last two Tour Championship wins
- Best early value: Wyndham Clark (5%) — Clark averaged 1.38 strokes gained per round last week to complement his red-hot putting stroke; that's a key factor at any Donald Ross course, and especially his signature East Lake course — a $10 trade on Yes would return a max payout of $170.41
- Course: East Lake Golf Club is a 7,440-yard par 70 that has hosted the Tour Championship annually since 2004; Donald Ross made it his with a 1913 redesign, with Rees Jones (2008) and Andrew Green (2023) making further alterations more recently to demand accuracy off the tee and into the large, elevated, Bermuda grass putting surfaces
- Weather: The chance of precipitation is at least 55% for each of the first three days of the tournament, with Thursday holding an 84% chance with added risk of thunderstorms; the temperature will be in the mid-to-high 80s for all four rounds, and the wind will be negligible
- Cut line: The Tour Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 30 players will play all four tournament rounds
- Trading volume: The outright winner market for the Tour Championship has drawn over $2.7 million as of Monday afternoon
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📊 Tour Championship odds
The Tour Championship runs at East Lake Golf Club from Thursday, Aug. 27, through Sunday, Aug. 30. Check out the full Tour Championship field.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
21% |
 Rory McIlroy |
8.8% |
 Xander Schauffele |
7% |
 Wyndham Clark |
5% |
 Sam Burns |
4.7% |
 Ludvig Aberg |
4.6% |
 Cameron Young |
4.4% |
 Collin Morikawa |
4.2% |
 Patrick Cantlay |
4.3% |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
4.1% |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
4% |
 Chris Gotterup |
3.9% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Just like a major, your Tour Championship predictions need to start by asking yourself one question: Scottie or Rory?
I'm taking the four-time FedEx Cup champion, who won here most recently in 2022 after starting the tournament 6 strokes back of Scheffler. McIlroy rebounded from an atrocious outing in Memphis to finish third last week, while Scheffler later admitted to combating Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease for much of the week.
Scheffler is still the heavy favorite as he led the season-long FedEx Cup standings. I think some may be forgetting the new format for the Tour Championship that won't see him with any advantage.
This is a standard 72-hole event, so even long shots are live in the 30-man field, but McIlroy's course history is too much for me to look past.
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🚩 Course breakdown: East Lake Golf Club (Atlanta)
- 7,440-yard Par 70 with pinched fairways that demand accuracy off the tee to set up approach shots
- Large, raised Bermuda grass greens with steep run-offs
- Home of the Tour Championship since 2004, offering plenty of familiarity for veterans in the field
Originally built by Tom Bendelow in 1908, Donald Ross made East Lake Golf Club his with a 1913 redesign. That instituted many of the staple Ross features, including long and narrow fairways and large and elevated greens.
East Lake demands accuracy off the tee with pinched fairways. Carefully selecting your landing spot is essential for getting the optimal angle into the elevated greens, and holding position on the putting surfaces is key at risk of the steep runoffs down toward the large bunkers with squared faces.
Surprisingly, Zach Johnson holds the course record of -10, 60 from 2007. That shows that long hitters don't hold an advantage, as positioning and course management are the most important traits this week.
Players to watch:
- Patrick Cantlay: The 2021 FedEx Cup champion led last week's field with 1.68 strokes gained: approach and 3.29 SG: tee-to-green per round
- Hideki Matsuyama: Leads this year's Tour Championship field in driving accuracy across everyone's last 12 measured rounds while averaging 1.27 SG: approach per round
- Gary Woodland: Owns the best mix of driving distance and accuracy across his last 12 rounds, with key strokes gained in every metric, including putting
🔢 Key stats & player profiles to target
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained: tee-to-green
- Driving accuracy
- Bogey avoidance
- Proximity from 200-plus yards
Players to watch:
- Hideki Matsuyama: Ranks eighth on the PGA Tour this season in proximity to the pin on approaches of 200-plus yards
- Matt Fitzpatrick: Multi-time winner this season ranks seventh for the season in bogey avoidance; pairs strong putting stroke with accuracy off the tee
📺 How to watch & tee times
- Thursday-Friday: 11 a.m. - 1 p.m. ET (ESPN) and 1-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3-7 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Sunday: Noon - 1:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 1:30-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
Check back on Tuesday afternoon for the 2026 Tour Championship tee times.
Tour Championship FAQ
Who is the 2026 Tour Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is a 21% favorite at Kalshi. Scheffler leads the FedEx Cup standings over Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark.
When is the 2026 Tour Championship?
The 2026 Tour Championship will be played from Thursday, Aug. 27 to Sunday, Aug. 30.
Where will the 2026 Tour Championship be played?
The 2026 Tour Championship will be played at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
Who won the Tour Championship last year?
Tommy Fleetwood won last year's Tour Championship for his first career PGA Tour win.
What are Tour Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Tour Championship matchup picks work?
When betting on Tour Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Tour Championship cut line?
The Tour Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 30 players will play all four tournament rounds.
Are Tour Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks and prediction markets for the Tour Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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