The final PGA Tour golf tournament of the year tees off Thursday, Aug. 27 at 11 a.m. ET. Fifteen groups of two will send out the 30 players who've made it to the season finale at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. It's expected to be a hot and humid day, with a high chance of (some) rain and a moderate chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Our look at the Tour Championship first-round leader odds from Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — show Scottie Scheffler as the favorite, just as he is for the tournament. We offer our best golf picks below.
📊 Tour Championship first round leader odds (2026)
Here are the live odds for the first-round leader market for the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
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💰 Tour Championship first-round leader picks (2026)
| Golfer |  |
Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim | 2.4% | First tee time; will be ahead of any weather threat |
| Gary Woodland | 2.5% | Opened with a 64 last Thursday and ranks 11th in Round 1 scoring average |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.7% | Plays alongside Scheffler in the final group with the chance to take advantage of softer greens |
⛳ Who'll lead the Tour Championship after Round 1?
Best first-round leader pick: Tom Kim 2.4%
Tee time: 11 a.m. ET | Group: Ryan Fox
Tom Kim has been a different golfer in the second half of this season since finishing third in the U.S. Open. He claimed a win, a T5, and a T12 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
His approach play and putting have been the biggest drivers of that success. Though he's only 30th for the season in Round 1 scoring average, he'll benefit from heading out in Thursday's first group when the course is dry, and the firm fairways will add some distance off the tee.
Gary Woodland 2.5%
Tee time: 12:18 p.m. ET | Group: Ryan Gerard
Gary Woodland opened last week's BMW Championship with a 64 and added a Friday 65 to be near the top of the leaderboard before admitting to some pressure derailing his game ever so slightly over the weekend. Well, the pressure will be off on Thursday while playing alongside Ryan Gerard.
Woodland blends distance and accuracy perfectly off the tee, and he's been gaining strokes in all key aspects of his game. He's 11th for the season in Round 1 scoring average, and should get the better weather split on Thursday. He's also part of my Tour Championship long-shot picks.
Matt Fitzpatrick 3.7%
Tee time: 2 p.m. ET | Group: Scottie Scheffler
I don't love Matt Fitzpatrick's tee time as I expect he'll be delayed by the weather and will lose some driving distance amid the soggy conditions. But it's good to hedge against the forecast, and he's my pick for the first-round leader from the final tee time in case it ends up being a nicer day at East Lake.
🌦️ Thursday's weather at East Lake Golf Club
Here is Thursday's weather report from AccuWeather:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 🌡️ Temperature | 86° |
| 💨 Wind | 5 mph S (7 mph gusts) |
| 🌧️ Precipitation | 90% chance (0.52 inches) |
| ☀️ Humidity | 69% |
It'll be a hot and humid day in Atlanta, with a 54% chance of a thunderstorm that could disrupt play. Still, completing Round 1 by end of day Thursday shouldn't be an issue with only 30 players on the course and only half an inch of rain expected.
Stay tuned to the PGA Tour's social accounts in case we get word tonight or early in the morning of start times being pushed up or back. Storms aren't expected to hit East Lake until 3-5 p.m. ET.
⛅ What to consider when trading on the first-round leader
The first-round leader market of any golf tournament is far different than wagering on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for tournament favorites are longer in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when trading on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to ensure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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