The PGA Tour makes its yearly trip to TPC Deere Run for the 2025 John Deere Classic, and once again, the field is lacking in big-name star power with the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship coming up in the next two weeks.
That opens the door for a wide range of contenders behind betting favorite Ben Griffin in the John Deere Classic odds, and my top golf picks this week include a mix of proven veterans and rising talents ready to capitalize in the Quad Cities.
Golf picks for the John Deere Classic 2025
- Day to win outright (+2700)
- McCarthy to win outright (+3000)
- Thorbjornsen Top 20 (+180)
- Glover Top 30 (+120)
- Griffin Under 5.5 Round 1 birdies (-125)
John Deere Classic outright picks
Outright pick: Jason Day
+2700 at bet365
It’s been two years since Jason Day’s last PGA Tour win, but his recent form points toward another breakthrough. He’s posted two Top 5s and a pair of additional Top 10s over his past 11 tournaments while gaining true strokes across the board.
Day also ranks fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch, which is another strong sign he’s trending in the right direction.
Outright pick: Denny McCarthy
+3000 at bet365
TPC Deere Run continues to suit Denny McCarthy’s game. He’s racked up three straight Top 10s at the course and has made the cut in 19 consecutive events overall.
McCarthy is coming off a T12 at the Travelers, where he gained true strokes in all five metrics, and he enters this week ranked third in both total true strokes gained and true strokes gained putting over the noted 19-event span.
John Deere Classic prop picks
Finishing position pick: Michael Thorbjornsen Top 20
+180 at DraftKings
Michael Thorbjornsen is on my radar this week.
The 23-year-old is coming off a sharp T4 at the Rocket Classic, where he gained true strokes across the board, and now returns to TPC Deere Run for the third straight year.
He finished runner-up here in 2024 — ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green — and posted a T17 in his 2023 debut. Thorbjornsen also ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage.
Finishing position pick: Lucas Glover Top 30
+120 at bet365
The 2021 John Deere Classic champ boasts an excellent track record at TPC Deere Run, following up his win with a T6 in 2022 and a T23 last year. Glover is also coming off a strong T9 at the Travelers, where he ranked second in true strokes gained on approach and fourth in tee-to-green play.
He enters this week ranked fourth in this field in both categories for the season, so I’m expecting another solid showing in the Quad Cities.
John Deere Classic first-round pick
Round 1 birdies pick: Ben Griffin Under 5.5 birdies
-125 at bet365
Sure, Ben Griffin is the betting favorite and is arguably playing as well as anyone on the planet, but birding a third of his Round 1 holes is a lot to ask. He averages just 3.92 birdies per round to rank 54th on the PGA Tour, after all.
Plus, Griffin’s strength has been playing well on tough courses with an eighth-ranked adjusted scoring average (70.035) and ranking 34th in bogey avoidance.
John Deere Classic odds
- Ben Griffin: +1600
- Jason Day: +2500
- Denny McCarthy: +2800
- Michael Thorbjornsen: +3000
- J.T. Poston: +3000
- Si Woo Kim: +3000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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