There is an abundance of value when looking at this week's golf odds — you just need to fade the favorites. I'm turning my attention to our 3M Open long-shot picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler is this week's +275 betting favorite to win at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn., but a watered-down field opens the door for long-shot and sleeper golf picks in the 3M Open odds.
I'm targeting three 3M Open long-shot picks with odds ranging from +7500 to +20000, returning a profit of $750 to $2,000 on a winning $10 bet at our best golf betting sites. See below as I make the case for Davis Thompson, Lucas Glover, and Gordon Sargent to claim victory.
💤 3M Open long shot picks
Picks were made on 7-21 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
🎯 3M Open sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Davis Thompson
+7500 at BetMGM
Davis Thompson has two missed cuts in two appearances at TPC Twin Cities. Despite lackluster results to this point of the 2026 golf season, I see him as a strong course fit this year.
Thompson is seventh on the PGA Tour this season in proximity to the pin on approach shots from 175-200 yards — this week's key distance at the par-71, near-7,500-yard Arnold Palmer-designed track.
Thompson is also 27th in bogey avoidance for the season. That'll help keep him in contention with past winners of this event finishing with a 72-hole score ranging from -15 to -24.
I'd make this bet on Thompson to win the 3M Open at +7500 or higher. I don't expect the odds to go any shorter than this, as he won't be a popular pick based on his recent results and poor course history.
Covers golf betting tools
Sleeper pick to win: Lucas Glover
+11000 at BetMGM
Lucas Glover is my strongest long-shot pick this week.
Despite missing the cut in his last three appearances in this event, I'm interested in a previous T7 finish in the 3M Open (2019), and I'm infatuated with his current form. Glover finished T3 in the John Deere Classic and T5 in the ISCO Championship three and two weeks ago, respectively.
The wily vet ranks 23rd in proximity to the pin from 175-200 yards for the season. Most importantly, he has averaged 1.01 true strokes gained: approach per round across his last 16 competitive rounds, and he ranks as one of the most accurate drivers in the 3M Open field across that span.
I would bet on Glover to win outright down to +7500, so I'm running to the value at +11000.
COVERS INTEL: Glover has a history of playing his best golf against weaker fields in the hotter summer months. He has eight top-10 finishes over July and August since 2023, including Top-5 showings in his last two events.Sleeper pick to win: Gordon Sargent
+20000 at BetMGM
Twenty-three-year-old Gordon Sargent came out of the blue to earn a co-runner-up finish in last week's Corales Puntacana Championship, an alternate-field event running opposite the British Open. That followed missed cuts in five of his past seven events dating back to March.
However, Sargent also finished T8 in this year's Puerto Rico Open. His success comes against the PGA Tour's weakest fields. Aside from Scottie Scheffler (+275), Hideki Matsuyama (+2800), and a handful of other names at the top of this week's oddsboard, this week's field isn't any stronger than those.
I wouldn't bet on Sargent at odds any lower than this, but he's well worth a shot at 200/1. His short game has improved significantly over the past two weeks, and he gained 0.40 strokes per round on approach last week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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