WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

Si1ly,

You say you're passing on the Pitt/NY game due to the intangibles affecting both teams. Respect your judgement [and all the input you provide, by the way], but I prefer to view this a different way. Have stepped out on Pitt moneyline for this one. In a tossup situation, you take the odds [ +160 in this case]. I understand it may be a more aggressive approach that doesn't suit everyone though. Also, I don't know how the Giants can even thing about concentrating on football following this awful disaster.  This versus a Pitt team with a minor travel bump.  Finally, I wish the best to all affected by this terrible storm. GL to all.

damonte, I see your point.  if you take the underdog on the moneyline in all situations similar to this - its hard to imagine it won't be profitable in the long run.  I'm way down on Pitt this year and I think that bias is making it easier for me to turn my back against them.

good lineup.. I'd sit either Green or Martin

I like Chicago and Denver equally.. they're both tough bets to take at -3.5 on the road though

Thank you. One large bet on denver. Much appreciated. Going with the line movement

Good luck all !!

Bengals

Hey does anyone have problems with opening the documents off google? I have a MAC and everytime I try to open its blank. -thanks

Not here.  I have MAC as well. 

Thanks for sharing, Si1ly! 

people forgetting the Steeler team thaty lost at Oak.......

no troy... no rb's.... not same D...

Pitt my bet

Thanks for all the hard work and insight every week Silly!!!

Agree with you on the dogs cashing at 61% but then throw in the away dogs and it goes up to 64%...vegas wont let that stay that high and look for that to change the second half of the season so I will stay away from the Giants-Steelers game....dont trust Pitt on the road this year....only team they beat was Cinn and Manning is no Dalton!!
New York will be ready to play for the people affected by Sandy....just ask the Knicks and Nets!!!
Good Luck and will be joining ya on the Denver pick!!! Keep up the great work!!!

The Giants handle adversity better than most teams.  In fact, they seem to thrive in adverse situations.  If the Giants had a losing record I would be throwing down a big bet on them in this one.  But the situation being what it is, I think Si1ly has it right, the best bet is not bet.  Although your reasoning for taking Pitt money line is sound and Pitt certainly needs the win more.
On a different note, vegas and the betting public think TB will not be able to overcome traveling cross country to play the inferior raiders.  While I do think Denarius Moore has a big fantasy day, I really don't think Oakland can win without getting DMC going.  And TB is good vs. the run.  Do you guys agree with the betting public that home field advantage and not being affected by Sandy is enough for Oakland to win this game?  I've already  bet TB, just getting nervous the line is going in the wrong direction.. Also, anyone know why the Detroit line has jumped from -3.5 to -5.5 despite news that Calvin Johnson is going to be playing limited (3rd downs only is the rumor).  I know the Jags are not a great team but the line was stable at -3.5 for a few days and seems to have jumped after news that Calvin's injury will seriously limit him this weekend.. Is the world just betting against the East Coast this weekend???

Fantasy Football is my bread n butter.  Unfortunately you will need some miracles to beat a top team this week, especially if you are not in a ppr league.  CJ is a must start in that group but vs the bears you really need him to bust a 60+ yarder for a score. He won't get 100 yards rushing the hard way vs. the bears. Titans will use CJ in a lot of ways trying to alleviate pass rush pressure.  His touches and big play ability make him a must start despite the matchup.  Forte is your best start but isn't getting into th eendzone much this year due to Bush, Marshall and even Kellen Davis being more likely goal line options for the Bears.  Martin just had the game of his life but being a rookie on the road will make it difficult for him to repeat.  But with Martin being a feature back who should even be getting the goal line carries now, and a threat in the pass game, he is a better start than BJGE.  BJGE just sucks.  He is a feature back and possibly the most likely to get a TD but the least likely to break 100 yards or get anything from the receiving game.  Playing a top team in your league you have to play the guys with the best chance to put up a 20 or better for you. Sit BJGE.

Si1ly great work gl....having a hard time selecting Denver or Chicago ML

Damonte: The New York Knicks handled the adversity well....ask the Heat and.....Motivation is high here.....for both teams.

A lot of broadcasters and media have been asking the Steelers all week about the travel problems, and most players prefer to travel day of game like the Steelers are this week. They like the fact they've gotten to practice and be home all week away from the flood scene and drama in NYC, they like coming in, having their pre-game meeting, playing, and getting out of there the same day, and all teams do this during their pre-season anyway. Add this to the fact that the Giants are not a great home team and have been distracted all week with the hurricane, I'm on Pittsburgh.

Just like the Knicks concentrated on their job against the Heat two days ago: https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore?gid=2012110218

don't you all see that you're just guessing on the Pitt/NYG?  the truth is, we don't know how either team will respond to the unusual situations surrounding this game.  no play is the right play.  plenty of other games to try and make a buck on today.

Nicely stated si1ly... smart betting.

What are your strongest leans silly...

Thank-you, so much, for all your hard work. Your efforts have been very profitable for me this season.

Got the courage to play a 3 team parlay this week and bought some points (so I don't stress too much)

Bears -3
Broncos -3
Texans -9.5
pays +351

Best of luck to everyone today

haven't seen anything resembling "sharp action" this week