WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit

Really appreciate the time you put into making all this data and putting it out for everyone to benifit. THANK YOU.....

That being said I cannot view any of the files, get to the page and it says the games but then "no description" next to them and when you click on the games its blank inside.... This was the case for last weeks games as well... Do you know if it is a problem with safari or using a mac? Just wondering if you have had other people with same issue..... Thanks again..

Game scares me a bit though because LSU is Bama without an offense...... Even at home don't see how that gets em points against best D in FBS..... All that being said I don't like 9.5 either but am certainly going to enjoy a nice Under bet on this game, gonna be brutal to watch as humans are crushed beneath 2 meat grinders

KC @ SD

CHI @ TEN

DEN @ CIN

BUF @ HOU

PIT @ NYG

DAL @ ATL

Just have to decide if this is another week for parody?  Or is it time for the cream to rise to the top?  Look at it just in terms of power rankings:

#32 @ #23

#4 @ #28

#2 @ #24

#30 @ #3

#18 @ #8

#16 @ #11

The files are adobe PDF's hosted in a Google drive folder.  I don't have a mac so I don't know how safari handles them on a laptop or desktop.  My wife's iPad doesn't seem to have any issue opening them in Safari though.  Try downloading the Google chrome browser maybe?  Since I'm hosting in Google drive, I would think Google chrome would have the necessary plug-ins included to view the files.  Maybe you need an adobe reader downloaded?

When will you start posting in the Hoops Forum? :) Any leans for opening night tomorrow?

I am on a macbook right now using safari, with adobe and am able to view them fine. Maybe check to make sure your adobe is installed ok.

Keep up the good work as always!

I do, I was just highlighting favorites to start the thread.  It's a theme I'd like to discuss this week.

I especially like how well Tampa defends the run.  Neutralizing Oakland's ground game and they're not left with much of an offense.

I'll be over there in about a month.  I did a lot of research in the offseason and I made some changes to my models to reflect my findings.  I used to be a firm believer in the four factors, but it turns out that they don't mean shit.  It doesn't matter how well you rebound, or your turnover differential or your free throw rate.  One simple thing matters:  how well do you shoot and how well do you defend the shot.  Everything else is superficial.  Sure having fewer turnovers and having more rebounds can give you more possessions in a game and higher probability shot attempts.. but ultimately it still boils down to how well you convert those attempts and how well you prevent your opponent from converting them.  Basically, if you can determine which team will attempt the most high probability shots AND make a higher percentage of them then their opponent, you can cap a basketball game.  I've converted this simple finding into a mathematical model to predict these variables and determine an expected winning percentage and margin of victory from them.  I need at least a month of current season data to start drawing relevant conclusions.  I'll poke my head in from time to time until the sheets are ready, then I'll publish daily through May.

You probably need to clear your cache in Safari to get it working there. 

Safari > Empty cache 

Excited for NBA! 

Next to nothing.  #30th ranked team and the #28th ranked team both playing top 5 competition.