All Forums | Website Promotions

WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

...

Participants:

Posts: 282

statsman49

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 64

Posted: Nov. 1, 2012 - 11:33 PM ET #151

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

One of the tests I do with my raw model outputs is I compare them to a game simulation that predicts the total amount of yards a team will get (using the offensive/defensive RPI method). This way, I can get a read on how much of the output is generated by pure advantages on offense or defense, and how much of it is dependent upon red zone conversion rates, defensive/special teams touchdowns, overall efficiency and other variables that tend to be more random and consequently less easier to mathematically predict.

When you perform this test on the Denver, Chicago and Houston games, you see that those three teams are not only expected to score more efficiency (i.e takes fewer yards to get a point), but they also are expected to gain more yards too.

When you perform this test on Tampa and Washington, you see that these games are pretty even in terms of offensive/defensive match-ups. Both teams will be able to move the ball with the same effectiveness on each other. So who wins? Well, the team that gets the lucky break (the red zone fumble, the punt return, the pick 6...whatever it may be). Or the team that simply produces more touchdowns than field goals. You can guesstimate these variables by looking at yards/point efficiency numbers, red zone conversion percentages, special teams return yards, fumble rates, interception rates... but you can never really predict these things.

I try and avoid games that lead down this second path. I don't want to have to guess right which team will have an easier time turning yards gained into points. If I'm investing in a team - especially a favorite - I want to know that they're not only expected to be more efficient at scoring, but that they're going to flat out gain their opponent too. This increases the margin of error significantly and helps avoid betting games that you don't have as much control over as you might think.

Thanks that is a really helpful insight for me.

I actually run a total passing and rushing RPI yards sheet each week for QB prop betting so i will start looking into those for my analysis now as well.

Appreciate the response, BOL this weekend

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

statsman49

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 64

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 12:00 AM ET #152

Sorry just a follow up on this... To predict total yards the RPI method i am using is (taking for example Pitt @ Giants)
1) Giants pass on average for 288 yards
Pitts secondary restricts QBs to -67 yards below their average on usual... Giants pass yards @88-67 = 221
2) Pitts secondary concedes on average 192 yards passing per game
Eli throws for 29 yards more than the secondary he is versings average allowance .. Giants pass yards = 192+29 = 221

Pass yards Giants = (221 + 221)/2 = 221 (funilly enough the methods match exactly for this example!)

I wont go through the others but by the same logic for rushing i end up with

Giants passing 221
Giants rushing 99

Pitt passing 318
Pitt rushing 94

Yardage advantage pitt (318+94) - (221+99) = 92 yards

I know that method has it flaws based on how many rushing and passing plays they will actually run and using the RPI of yards per rush and yards per pass, was just wondering for your total yard analysis you mention in the post above if you use a more precise method?

I have been using the one above for QB passing yards and it has been working quite well, just have to be careful not taking big overs when they have a chance of being up by 2 scores and keep it on the ground the majority of the second half to burn clock and on the flip side taking an under on a heavy underdog cause it is likely they can get garbage yards late to cover when down by double digits (see Ponder and Sanchez last week both covering their numbers in last quarter) however those dangers can also be utilised as ways to identify advantages on top of what the raw number suggests.

Thanks again Silly, I am an actuary by trade just finishing at university so i love putting my modelling skills to something I am interested in outside of work!!

KC4U2ENVY

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 303

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 12:22 AM ET #153

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Good call Davopz. Kansas City continues to find every way possible to lose. They ran more plays, had more time of possession and converted more first downs.. yet they lost by 18. It turned out that this game held true to the expected 2-1 advantage for San Diego in yards per point.

3-0 to start on covers on single plays!

si1ly dude, your analysis DEFINATELY helps, I was on SD all day, MNF I called the UNDER and SD on the spread, all based on your stats.

DUDE you are insaneeeee!

I'm looking at doing a PLEASER, I am leaning on 3-4 teams, let me know what you guys think?!?!?

Select #1  : NFL Football for Game
               Denver Broncos  11/4/2012 1:00 PM - (EST)  
               Spread -9½  for Game   
  Select #2  : NFL Football for Game
               Baltimore Ravens  11/4/2012 1:00 PM - (EST)  
               Spread -9½  for Game   
  Select #3  : NFL Football for Game
               Houston Texans  11/4/2012 1:00 PM - (EST)  
               Spread -16  for Game   
  Select #4  : NFL Football for Game
               Chicago Bears  11/4/2012 1:00 PM - (EST)  
               Spread -9  for Game

KC4U2ENVY

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 303

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 12:23 AM ET #154

Sorry called the SF spread on the Monday NIghter

lllusion

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 107

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 12:48 AM ET #155

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'll go into greater detail when I start publishing the sheets, but I can elaborate on my research findings to give you an idea on how it influenced the redesigning of my models.

If you're a traditionalist in terms of advanced NBA statistics, you'd swear by the 'four factors'. Those are: offensive rebounding differential, free throw rate differential, turnover rate differential & effective field goal percentage differential. Each of these four factors has a weight attached to it to describe how much of an influence it has on the outcome of a game. Shooting (eFG%) was said to influence 45% of the game. Turnovers 25%, Offensive Rebounding 20% and Free Throw's 10%. These are just general guidelines and can fluxuate a few percentage points depending on the expected style of the game. I believed this was true because people told me to. Well, after losing 13 units in the regular season last year and hitting only 48%, I wanted to know why.. so I dug into the data.

I did a series of logistic regression studies using the last 12 years of data to extrapolate the relationship between the four factors and margin of victory and season winning percentage. The results were surprising. It turns out that offensive rebounding, turnovers and trips to the free throw line have almost no correlation to MOV and W%. The only variable that does - and it does with an R^2 value of .857 - is effective field goal percentage. The rest of the equation is superficial. So I used simple logic to find out why.

Free throws are highly dependent upon home court advantage and how the refs are calling the game that night. This is unfortunately quite inconsistent from game to game. Even if you did have data to suggest an advantage on one team or another - you just couldn't be confident that it would play out that way in reality.

Offensive rebounding rate and turnover rate are essentially measures of possessions - and consequently field goal attempts. The more rebounds and fewer turnovers, the more shot attempts. It's really that simple. In 2012, teams averaged 81 shots per game and made 36 of them. Let's say Team A out-rebounds their opponent by +6 and forces a +4 turnover differential. This would be considered a substantial advantage in both departments. On those 10 additional possessions, that team attempts 8 additional shots. So let's say that translates to 85 attempts for Team A and 77 attempts for Team B.

Team A - 85 ATT

Team B - 77 ATT

If both teams shoot the same eFG% (2012 league average 48.6%):

Team A - 85 ATT * 48.6% * 2 PTS = 82 points + free throws

Team B - 77 ATT * 48.6% * 2 PTS = 75 points + free throws

If Team B outshoots Team A by 3.0%:

Team A - 85 ATT * 47.1% * 2 PTS = 80 points + free throws

Team B - 77 ATT * 50.1% * 2 PTS = 77 points + free throws

If Team B outshoots Team A by 5.0%:

Team A - 85 ATT * 46.1% * 2 PTS = 78 points + free throws

Team B - 77 ATT * 51.1% * 2 PTS = 78 points + free throws

So even if Team A finishes the game with pretty significant advantages in rebounds and turnovers... Team B can overtake a 7 point deficit simply by shooting 5% better than Team A. This should illustrate the power of effective field goal percentage.

In a game with an equal number of shot attempts for both teams +1 eFG% is worth about 2.6 points. In a game where one team attempts 8 fewer shot attempts +1 eFG% is worth about 1.4 points.

After doing countless studies like this dealing with the relationship between the four factors and MOV and W%, I determined that the most accurate way to project an NBA game is to determine two things: 1) which team will get more shot attempts and how many and 2) which team will shoot better and by how much. I reworked my models to reflect these findings. And quite frankly, I can't wait to get my money back from my bookie this season.

Gave me chills

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'll go into greater detail when I start publishing the sheets, but I can elaborate on my research findings to give you an idea on how it influenced the redesigning of my models.

Team A - 85 ATT

Team B - 77 ATT

If both teams shoot the same eFG% (2012 league average 48.6%):

Team A - 85 ATT * 48.6% * 2 PTS = 82 points + free throws

Team B - 77 ATT * 48.6% * 2 PTS = 75 points + free throws

If Team B outshoots Team A by 3.0%:

Team A - 85 ATT * 47.1% * 2 PTS = 80 points + free throws

Team B - 77 ATT * 50.1% * 2 PTS = 77 points + free throws

If Team B outshoots Team A by 5.0%:

Team A - 85 ATT * 46.1% * 2 PTS = 78 points + free throws

Team B - 77 ATT * 51.1% * 2 PTS = 78 points + free throws

In a game with an equal number of shot attempts for both teams +1 eFG% is worth about 2.6 points. In a game where one team attempts 8 fewer shot attempts +1 eFG% is worth about 1.4 points.

Gave me chills

Show_Stoppa

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 485

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 12:56 AM ET #156

SD Chargers! Survivor pick and ML -305. had me nervous all day today, thanks for the great info and amazing input si1ly you are a master.

shawn27

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 3

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 10:36 AM ET #157

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

In the Steelers @ Giants game in fact, my models suggest that the Giants should be heavy favorites over the Steelers. But wait, Pittsburgh's actually projected to out gain New York by 33 yards! So why the big discrepancy in projected point spread? Well it's expected to take Pittsburgh 19 yards to score a point, while only 11 for the Giants. Whether it will play out like this in the game is a whole different story. But I'm not likely to risk money on a favorite banking on the fact that their offense has to be almost twice as efficient to cover the spread. When you put it that way it almost seems like a stupid bet - despite the mathematically perceived line value. Is your head spinning yet?

Si1ly,
I know you are always looking to take advantage of statistical mismatches, and apparently are very good at doing so, but I am finding it hard to ignore that the Steelers are flying into NY on Sunday morning due to their inability to find a functioning hotel.. Don't you think the Steelers traveling on game day, albeit a short travel relatively, will give the giants an added advantage? Do you ignore things like this completely?
Also, I was already looking for the cowboys to upset the falcons this week and just heard Falcons stud LB weatherspoon is out and Demarco might be back.. Can you please talk me out of burying the Cowboys

shawn27

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 3

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 10:42 AM ET #158

I should say they are traveling to NY on game day morning.. not even sure they are flying...

Numero_Uno

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 606

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 11:16 AM ET #159

Quote Originally Posted by shawn27:

Si1ly,
I know you are always looking to take advantage of statistical mismatches, and apparently are very good at doing so, but I am finding it hard to ignore that the Steelers are flying into NY on Sunday morning due to their inability to find a functioning hotel.. Don't you think the Steelers traveling on game day, albeit a short travel relatively, will give the giants an added advantage? Do you ignore things like this completely?
Also, I was already looking for the cowboys to upset the falcons this week and just heard Falcons stud LB weatherspoon is out and Demarco might be back.. Can you please talk me out of burying the Cowboys

Shawn,

You could look at it another way. The Giants have been effected all week by this storm. For instance, Manning had flooding in the lobby of his high rise apartment complex. Further, most players have apparently now moved to a hotel. I think the storm could be as big, if not bigger, for the G-men.

shawn27

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 3

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 11:28 AM ET #160

I suppose that is true Numero... I was just thinking that in a game that should be a bloody battle, fatigue could be an issue for the steelers after going through the hassle of traveling hours before kickoff.. But it is a 430pm kickoff.. I still like the Giants, I just figured this travel issue could be the cherry on top.. I see the storm's ripple effect being mental for the G-men and physical for the steelers...
Regarding the Cowboys, just want to correct myself, apparently Demarco is indeed OUT.

usikbasterd

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 3242

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 12:29 PM ET #161

so what are you actually picking this weekend....i just went thru this whole thread and didn't see any picks...maybe leans in page 1

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 1:23 PM ET #162

I definitely don't ignore intangible angles in the NFL - I think motivation and intensity has a huge impact on the game. In the Giants/Steelers game I think you can make compelling arguments for why either side will be deflated coming into the game. Pitts travel is definitely tough (I think they're flying), and the Giants domestic issues have thrown a wrench in their prep. Why try and predict which will weigh more? This is a situation where it's better to accept the fact that you don't know enough to make a well-informed wager. I'll be passing on this game.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 1:25 PM ET #163

Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:

so what are you actually picking this weekend....i just went thru this whole thread and didn't see any picks...maybe leans in page 1

I'm locked into Denver and Chicago. Got both -3.5 (-105). I will be adding the rest of my plays probably on Sunday morning. It's posted somewhere in the first couple pages.

r3coil

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 157

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 2:26 PM ET #164

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Locked in:

1:00 EST - Chicago Bears -3.5 (-105)

1:00 EST - Denver Broncos -3.5 (-105)

Page 2 (Post #42).

I'm seeing Denver at -4 now in most places. However, Chicago is still -3.5 and the line is all the way up to +108 in some places (I got it at +104). I'm Canadian though so I have access to more books than you guys.

r3coil

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 157

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 4:55 PM ET #165

NOT TO DERAIL, but check this out guys:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101462264

Quote Originally Posted by Covers-Team:

With many users still not adhering to the guidelines surrounding nude and inappropriate images in customized user avatars, we are forced to enact a stricter policy and temporarily disable all custom avatars. We say temporary as many of you who were following the guidelines will be able to gain your avatar back through our Avatar Approval Process which we will be enabling in the “edit profile” section of your spaces page as soon as possible. Until we have that approval process complete or if you don’t feel like going through the process, we will continue to offer the option of choosing from our existing avatar gallery which we will be updating frequently moving forward. Changes to custom avatars will take place Monday, November 5th.

[b]Covers would simply not exist without our advertisers so we will adhere to the standards they put in place[/b]. We do apologize for the inconvenience but want to ensure you that your experience on our site is our top priority.

Bolded for emphasis. I don't really mind that they are banning the NSFW avatars because it makes it easier to view these forums at work \ in public but I really hate their reasoning for it.

r3coil

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 157

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 4:55 PM ET #166

This forum software really fucking blows.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 5:06 PM ET #167

Quote Originally Posted by Covers-Team:

[b]Covers would simply not exist without our advertisers so we will adhere to the standards they put in place[/b]. We do apologize for the inconvenience but want to ensure you that your experience on our site is our top priority.

This is the problem. Covers seems to think that they would exist in a world that just included their employees and their advertisers. It's clear from their policies and the way they have articulated changes to us in the past that this is their stance. Obviously this could not be further from the truth. Advertising revenue is generated by views and clicks. In a world that only included the Covers Media Group and their advertisers, CMG would go bankrupt. The missing component from this equation is us. The user base that views the ads and clicks on them is what generate the revenue. This latest change is just one in a line of many backwards looking policies that have come about over the last few years. (Is there any coincidence that CMG removed the ability to hyperlink in the forums the same week that I began publishing Breakdown Sheets in the NFL mains?) It's quite clear that Covers Media Group does not believe that their users and the user experience is part of the equation. From a long time and frequent user, it's extremely disappointing.

Quote Originally Posted by Covers-Team:

shawn27

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 3

Posted: Nov. 2, 2012 - 8:27 PM ET #168

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Good Response. As simple as it sounds I think one of the main qualities that separates those that are profitable and those that piss away their pay checks each weekend is the ability to pass on a game they want to play if there are enough unknowns to make the wager a true gamble.. as opposed to a calculated prediction.. That being said, I think I will restrain from playing the Giants and Cowboys despite my gut saying the G-men run away with their game in the 2nd half and the Cowboys pull off the upset win on the road..
I am definitely with you on Denver and TB...