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WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posts: 282

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:27 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by SunsDevils:

si1ly, I have a question regarding your over/under on worksheets. So, at what point do you consider betting over/under lined compared to your model totals? Is there a percentage that the line is off by or by the number of points? Thank you!

Totals are more volatile to predict than spreads.. so I find it difficult to recommend any sort of blind betting system that only compares those numbers to the Vegas lines.. but that said, if you were to do something like that, I would recommend a 'percentage-variance' type of system like you suggest rather than a +/- based system.

elodge713

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 276

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:27 PM ET #52

Hey si1ly thanks for all the great info and hard work! One of the few on here that I follow. Just wondering what is your record YTD? Thanks and BOL

Btw Amen corner is one of my favorite places on earth

NYBUILT

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1084

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:32 PM ET #53

Sily,

Any reason not to tease Den/Chi both 7, to +3.......

slowphenomenon

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1851

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:33 PM ET #54

i was lucky enough to get chicago -3.5 +104, and denver -3.5 -101

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:38 PM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by elodge713:

Hey si1ly thanks for all the great info and hard work! One of the few on here that I follow. Just wondering what is your record YTD? Thanks and BOL

Btw Amen corner is one of my favorite places on earth

Mrs. Silly took me to the weekend rounds at Augusta for our wedding anniversary this past year. If I died and had to pick one place on earth to spend eternity, it would be Augusta National. It's the most spectacular place I've ever been. We spent all day Sunday sitting at the corner at 13. We could see the entire 13th hole from tee to green and still hear the crowds at both amen corner and 15/16 valley. On Saturday, I think we covered every square inch of the grounds, I couldn't leave without seeing everything. Anyways, I digress, here's my posted record on Covers:

'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u

'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u

'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u

'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u

'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u

'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u

'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u

'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u

'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u

'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u

'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u

'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u

'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u

'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u

'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u

'11-12 MLB: 130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u

'11-12 MLB-P: 1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u

'12-13 NFL: 24-11 (68.6%) +17.50u

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:39 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

i was lucky enough to get chicago -3.5 +104, and denver -3.5 -101

I would have bought the hook for Chicago and taken them -3 (-116) if I had that line.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:41 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by NYBUILT:

Sily,

Any reason not to tease Den/Chi both 7, to +3.......

Teasing across the 0 line only crosses 1 key number - not enough. Last weekend was a good week for teasers and I went 1-2 (although I only lost by a half point on the Bears). This week, I don't see as many teasers opportunities. It's a better card to play straight.

slowphenomenon

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1851

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:42 PM ET #58

at my book it takes it all the way to -126 for a push possibility i don't need on a 1 unit play that type of juice kills my return on investment

Jmt908

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 2347

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:42 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by NYBUILT:

Sily,

Any reason not to tease Den/Chi both 7, to +3.......

it's never a good idea to cross the zero in teasers - you lose a lot value and now you have it landing on a key number of 3 on top of it which is bad because teasers bets (most of the time) lose on a tie

elodge713

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 276

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:44 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u

'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u

'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u

'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u

'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u

'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u

'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u

'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u

'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u

'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u

'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u

'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u

'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u

'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u

'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u

'11-12 MLB: 130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u

'11-12 MLB-P: 1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u

'12-13 NFL: 24-11 (68.6%) +17.50u

Awesome! I've been there about 4 times and I still can't get over how glorious that place is. My father has been lucky enough to play a few times and noted that its damned near impossible. Truly is an amazing place.

Awesome record! Will be interested to see your final card for this weekend. BOL

Show_Stoppa

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 485

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:51 PM ET #61

Liking LSU +9.5 their defense is top in the country, the only reason they lost to the Gators was because Minter and a few others went down on defense all in the span of 2 minutes, Florida opened the game up and never looked back. LSU defense can play with anyone and I can't see LSU's offense getting any worse.

Do you think LSU's defense has enough to keep them in the game with turnovers and short fields??

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:53 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

at my book it takes it all the way to -126 for a push possibility i don't need on a 1 unit play that type of juice kills my return on investment

Agreed, 30 cents is too steep for that move. I had the same option to play both games at -125 moving the juice 20 cents.. but decided against it for the same reasons.

BadGnOmens

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1335

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:53 PM ET #63

Awesome records sily, gonna deff. follow you like a poor butler

slowphenomenon

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1851

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 4:57 PM ET #64

best of luck to us silly, lets us have a good weekend, i also added tampa bay money line +110 i have no respect for oakland but it's only a .5 unit play

roondog248

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 1219

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 5:01 PM ET #65

Now that MLB post season is over, I can devote more time to the NFL.

Thanks for the hard work on the 2012 MLB Sheets this season.

As always

NYBUILT

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1084

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 5:04 PM ET #66

@ Sily

@JMT908

I've heard before that crossing zero is a no, no. However, "tie" would result in a push with my book. It was just a thought...reason they call it a "sucker" bet...But for some reason, can't seem to shake the fact this looks good!!! LOL...GL....

pcz

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 348

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 5:21 PM ET #67

Gonna put in some early ones before the lines get inflated:

DEN -3.5 -105
CHI -3.5 -105
TB ML +105
BAL -3.5 -105 (coming off bye week)

I think these are going to be my only plays for the week.

TB ML & Den -3.5 +300 - 2 units
CHI & DEN & BAL +350 - 1 units
TB ML +105 - 4 units

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #68

If anybody is itching to play some opening night NBA action.. I would recommend the Celtics +6.5 as the best bet on the board. I also lean under in the same game.

Too many unknowns in LA to get a read on that inflated spread.

Why would you want any money on the other game? Who's playing again?

NYBUILT

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1084

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 5:37 PM ET #69

I agree got the C's at +7..... Wash playing Clev

clubtnt

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1822

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 5:54 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Locked in:

1:00 EST - Chicago Bears -3.5 (-105)

1:00 EST - Denver Broncos -3.5 (-105)

lovin' the chicago pick!

ReadBtWtheLines

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 127

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 6:05 PM ET #71

Who would be your top survivor option(s) this week si1ly? Thx very much.

roondog248

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 1219

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 7:08 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

If anybody is itching to play some opening night NBA action.. I would recommend the Celtics +6.5 as the best bet on the board. I also lean under in the same game.

Too many unknowns in LA to get a read on that inflated spread.

Why would you want any money on the other game? Who's playing again?

was just looking into the NBA...this will be my first year. thanks for the tip.

doy15

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2004

Posts: 8055

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 7:19 PM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

If anybody is itching to play some opening night NBA action.. I would recommend the Celtics +6.5 as the best bet on the board. I also lean under in the same game.

Too many unknowns in LA to get a read on that inflated spread.

Why would you want any money on the other game? Who's playing again?

Played the Celtics for a unit.

roondog248

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 1219

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 7:21 PM ET #74

would you care to elaborate on the boston pick?

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 7:45 PM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

would you care to elaborate on the boston pick?

I can guarantee that Boston will put out 100% effort here and I think they have the better defense on the floor. I think defense will dictate the pace of the game. And in this type of physical battle, I'd rather take the points with the team that I know will be putting out maximum effort. I wouldn't even be surprised to see the C's when outright. Miami is the better team, no question. Basketball games go to the team with the most effort more times than not.

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