Posted:
#76
awesome, just wanted to hear your opinion. I jumped on when I saw the line move, and just bought the 1/2 point
WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
Posted:
#81
Hey silly, Just wanted your opinion on why Oakland is giving 1.5 to Tampa...this seems like a trap game. TB's offense looked very sharp and explosive last Thursday and I believe that Minn defense is way better than Oakland's. The only thing Oak has is their home field advantage. Kinda of a brain fuck to me to see Oak giving points...
Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by pcz:
Gonna put in some early ones before the lines get inflated:
DEN -3.5 -105
CHI -3.5 -105
TB ML +105
BAL -3.5 -105 (coming off bye week)
I think these are going to be my only plays for the week.
TB ML & Den -3.5 +300 - 2 units
CHI & DEN & BAL +350 - 1 units
TB ML +105 - 4 units
Gonna put in some early ones before the lines get inflated:
DEN -3.5 -105
CHI -3.5 -105
TB ML +105
BAL -3.5 -105 (coming off bye week)
I think these are going to be my only plays for the week.
TB ML & Den -3.5 +300 - 2 units
CHI & DEN & BAL +350 - 1 units
TB ML +105 - 4 units
Nice cards! Two angels against the Browns:
Home team going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-8 ATS and 15-43 (25.8%) ATS the past 14 Years!
For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went
9-5-2 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak >
That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>
_______________
2011-2012 season through week 9 :
Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS
Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS
Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run
I also like Detroit to beat the crap out of Jags.
@Whaler I like that teaser will tail you on that one.
I don't see how KC can win this game, do you? But just in case right? So come the 6pts teaser.
Will also bet SD 1Q if the spread is -.5
Bought the hook for the Bears as well. Feeling really good about this week. Let's see how it goes
Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by longstah:
Raiders defen suck? lol r u serious? the only suck in that team is that number 3 guy, he can't do shiet.
Raiders defen suck? lol r u serious? the only suck in that team is that number 3 guy, he can't do shiet.
Well, to be fair, the Raiders are #27 in points allowed, #28 in yards per point and #23 in yards per play and net yards per attempt. Their only shining point on defense is their league average #16 ranked run defense. The Raiders defense sucks.
Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by BigLick08:
Nice cards! Two angels against the Browns:
Home team going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-8 ATS and 15-43 (25.8%) ATS the past 14 Years!
For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went
9-5-2 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak >
That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>
_______________
2011-2012 season through week 9 :
Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS
Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS
Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run
I also like Detroit to beat the crap out of Jags.
@Whaler I like that teaser will tail you on that one.
I don't see how KC can win this game, do you? But just in case right? So come the 6pts teaser.
Will also bet SD 1Q if the spread is -.5
Bought the hook for the Bears as well. Feeling really good about this week. Let's see how it goes
I might have a late play for the week. Depends on the weather in CLE. If weather is good, I'll go 4u on BAL Should be a blowout.
Wonder what the trend is for Baltimore after bye weeks going into a divisional game. I am assume it's good because it's a Harbaugh at head coach.
Posted:
#95
hey sil1y do you support a play on the chargers ML -305?? i know your sheet says it should be around a -600...
your numbers say chargers are the superior team.
external factors:
1) home field adv. SD
2) division game adv. KC (although this factor is diminished because of #3)
3) playoff/division aspirations adv. SD
4) losing streak sd(3) kc(4) adv. SD (more pressure on SD to win)
5) matt cassel return adv. KC (will the chiefs rally around cassel coming back from being booed after his injury??)
6) prime time adv. SD (chargers cannot afford to lose, a loss would be another embarrassment and another setback in their chase for a playoff spot in the weak AFC)
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv. KC (KC coming off a loss in the first game, they have the chance to make their adjustments after already seeing the Chargers once)
what do you think of this breakdown and what should be my main concers?
i'm already locked on SD -305
your numbers say chargers are the superior team.
external factors:
1) home field adv. SD
2) division game adv. KC (although this factor is diminished because of #3)
3) playoff/division aspirations adv. SD
4) losing streak sd(3) kc(4) adv. SD (more pressure on SD to win)
5) matt cassel return adv. KC (will the chiefs rally around cassel coming back from being booed after his injury??)
6) prime time adv. SD (chargers cannot afford to lose, a loss would be another embarrassment and another setback in their chase for a playoff spot in the weak AFC)
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv. KC (KC coming off a loss in the first game, they have the chance to make their adjustments after already seeing the Chargers once)
what do you think of this breakdown and what should be my main concers?
i'm already locked on SD -305
Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by Show_Stoppa:
hey sil1y do you support a play on the chargers ML -305?? i know your sheet says it should be around a -600...
your numbers say chargers are the superior team.
external factors:
1) home field adv. SD
2) division game adv. KC (although this factor is diminished because of #3)
3) playoff/division aspirations adv. SD
4) losing streak sd(3) kc(4) adv. SD (more pressure on SD to win)
5) matt cassel return adv. KC (will the chiefs rally around cassel coming back from being booed after his injury??)
6) prime time adv. SD (chargers cannot afford to lose, a loss would be another embarrassment and another setback in their chase for a playoff spot in the weak AFC)
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv. KC (KC coming off a loss in the first game, they have the chance to make their adjustments after already seeing the Chargers once)
what do you think of this breakdown and what should be my main concers?
i'm already locked on SD -305
hey sil1y do you support a play on the chargers ML -305?? i know your sheet says it should be around a -600...
your numbers say chargers are the superior team.
external factors:
1) home field adv. SD
2) division game adv. KC (although this factor is diminished because of #3)
3) playoff/division aspirations adv. SD
4) losing streak sd(3) kc(4) adv. SD (more pressure on SD to win)
5) matt cassel return adv. KC (will the chiefs rally around cassel coming back from being booed after his injury??)
6) prime time adv. SD (chargers cannot afford to lose, a loss would be another embarrassment and another setback in their chase for a playoff spot in the weak AFC)
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv. KC (KC coming off a loss in the first game, they have the chance to make their adjustments after already seeing the Chargers once)
what do you think of this breakdown and what should be my main concers?
i'm already locked on SD -305
7) Second matchup between SD and KC adv KC ... disagree!!! .. they have both seen each other, SD have beaten KC on their own turf and now have the chance to play them at home and the fact they rolled them the first time quite convincingly, then i dont think that is advantage KC
Posted:
#97
On the same wavelengths as you this week did my lines tonight and printed off your breakdown sheets to mull over.. Similiar leans i have are
Denver -5.5
Chicago -7
Houston -15.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
Washington -5
Atlanta -7 (raw model came out as -9!!) but something about that game isnt sitting right with me so i dont think i will play...
Definately with you on Denver Chicago and i think il play houston, others will be gameday decisions..
Anyway keep up the good work love the sheets each week
Denver -5.5
Chicago -7
Houston -15.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
Washington -5
Atlanta -7 (raw model came out as -9!!) but something about that game isnt sitting right with me so i dont think i will play...
Definately with you on Denver Chicago and i think il play houston, others will be gameday decisions..
Anyway keep up the good work love the sheets each week
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by BigLick08:
Nice cards! Two angels against the Browns:
Home team going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-8 ATS and 15-43 (25.8%) ATS the past 14 Years!
For the season 2010-2011 Favorites coming off a bye went
9-5-2 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye went 2-0-1 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye were coming into the season on a 8-0 ATS streak >
That streak was bolstered to a blistering 10-0-1 ATS clip where it ended the 2010-2011 season>
_______________
2011-2012 season through week 9 :
Favorites coming off a bye are 9-5 ATS
Road favorites coming off abye are 3-1 ATS
Road Favorites enjoy a 13-1-1 ATS run
I also like Detroit to beat the crap out of Jags.
@Whaler I like that teaser will tail you on that one.
I don't see how KC can win this game, do you? But just in case right? So come the 6pts teaser.
Will also bet SD 1Q if the spread is -.5
Bought the hook for the Bears as well. Feeling really good about this week. Let's see how it goes
The home team is not between 0 and -6 though.
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
Silly, are you any closer to locking in Houston and Miami? They seem to have the largest variances outside of Denver and Chicago.
Thanks
Silly, are you any closer to locking in Houston and Miami? They seem to have the largest variances outside of Denver and Chicago.
Thanks
Hard to say, I'm already on two road favorites getting 65% public consensus. Don't know if I want to add a public home favorite laying double digits. Miami is still a mystery to me. I have a horrible read on this team, and I live in this freaking city.
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