WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

looks like quite a few of your RPIs don't add up. for example, you have ARI's offensive RPI at -6.4.

but if you calculate ARI's offensive RPI by hand you have:

ARI offensive average = 15.9 ppg. their opponents defenses average 12.9 (SF), 20.9 (MIN), 32.4 (BUF), 23.2 (STL), 18 (MIA), 22.1 (PHI), 21.2 (NE), 16.8 (SEA). the average of opponents defensive average is 20.9.

ARI offensive RPI should be 15.9 - 20.9 = -5. there is an even wider discrepancy with ARI's defensive RPI.

the rest of the RPI numbers should be correct in the other games.  If you notice an error, let me know, and I'll fix it in my database.

the others that don't match are phi, gb, sea, det.

Are they seriously 9.5 point favorites in a big revenge game like that? Wow thats shocking to me, i don't bet college that much but damm didn't think Bama had that much of an edge over LSU

RE: SURVIVOR

Hey s1lly was wondering if you will be posting the NBA Sheets? Dont see a thread yet and this was the most recent....(sent a friend request just couldnt PM or I would)

Read post #20 in this thread. Basically, he will have in ready in a month, when there is some data on the games.

alabama does have that much of an edge on LSU, public perception will pound LSU and cry when Bama takes them to school.

parity 1 |'parite|noun1 the state or condition of being equal, esp. regarding status or pay: parity of incomes between rural workers and those in industrial occupations.• the value of one currency in terms of another at an established exchange rate.• a system of providing farmers with consistent purchasing power by regulating prices of farm products, usually with government price supports.2 Mathematics (of a number) the fact of being even or odd.• Physics the property of a spatial wave equation that either remains the same (even parity) or changes sign (odd parity) under a given transformation.• Physics the value of a quantum number corresponding to this property.• Computing a function whose being even (or odd) provides a check on a set of binary values.
By the way great reading GL this weekend sil1y

Hahaha Mac, learn somtin' new every day!

Early wagering has 69% action on Bama.  Public perception is that Alabama is invincible, imo.

Silly, it's interesting that your #27 team has a 4.5 point edge over your #22 team on Monday night.  I don't know what to make of that game myself.

Any thoughts on Miami, Seattle, or Washington?

You can buy the hook if you want on either of those games - but I decided against it myself.  On paper, the Bears and Broncos are both expected to substantially out-gain their opponent and both teams sport a much more efficient offense.  Put those two together and you have blowout potential in both games.  I'm not going to over-think the public consensus numbers or the curiously low lines on either of these games.  These two games pass all the tests so I won't wait around for either line to climb past 4 while I can still get them at reduced juice - a valuable asset if these two plays somehow split.

If it comes down to Red Zone conversions, it's hard not to like Brees playing at home here with the season already hanging on by a thread.

Out of the 3 others I listed I also like Miami the most there.  Thanks for your insight brother 

I'm not sure when I started capitalizing "red zone" but maybe it's a sign I watch too much of that channel.  It's like crack on Sunday

si1ly, I have a question regarding your over/under on worksheets. So, at what point do you consider betting over/under lined compared to your model totals? Is there a percentage that the line is off by or by the number of points? Thank you!