Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

have you found any significance to the TR diff and a % of series wins vs just betting the system as is?

Nothing concrete as of yet.  We are definitely not helping ourselves much thus far playing on road teams.  I posted the numbers on the previous page.  2 of the 3 losses have come from road plays.  As the rankings get more settled in we may see more patterns we can capitalize on

wow the update lines are going to look ugly

bad day guys.

Plays for 5/14:

System record 59-4-1

Additional series 3-0-0

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

*Series #69 (G1) 2:20      pit @ CHC -199, RL -110   10

*Series #68 (G1/2) 8:40           was @ COL -228, RL -120

 *Series #70 (G1) 7:05          min @ NYY -168      9.5

Series #71 (G1) 7:10            sea @ TB  -182        8.5

OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)       

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =40

Game 2 wins = 13

Game 3 wins = 6

*Losses = 3 , -42.6U+ pending (Martingale)

+34.0U aggressive labby updated 5/14 PM

5-5-5-41-39          

x-x-x-x-51      

x-5-56-39          

Series info:

min (4, 102.0) @ NYY (1, 105.5) = +3, +3.5               NYY -200

sea (29, 96.9) @ TB (10, 101.3) = +19, +4.4              TB -280

pit (30,95.3)  @ CHC (24, 98.3) = +6, +3.0                     ??

i think i am going to play each series start with the filter of 9 or higher o/u.  Your numbers seem to support a great rate of return.

Considering playing the last game of series if home fav lost first two. 

trying to eliminate or at least cut the rate of having bad weeks like these past two.

yeah jake, i hear you.  It has been rough the last few weeks.  Dogs have been barking like crazy lately.  I have also been noticing teams that cause us a loss end up winning the next game, so I took a shot with STL tonight and won. of course, thanks to the cubs and rays I still ended up in the negative because of the juice.  The labby lines should get most of it back for us over time but in the short term not very good.  I have been playing all the games at least on -1 and a lot of -1.5 because I just can't justify laying the juice on some of these teams.  The lines are going to be getting too large.  I would recommend splitting them until things settle down some.  We are going to have a break coming up with a lot of two game series next week and then interleague games.  I was hoping we would have gotten a lot of our losses back this weekend but we are not off to a great start.

Plays for 5/14:

System record 59-4-1

Additional series 3-0-0

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

*Series #69 (G1) 2:20      pit @ CHC -199, RL -110 

*Series #68 (G1/2) 8:40           was @ COL -228, RL -120 ppd

 *Series #70 (G1) 7:05          min @ NYY -168     

Series #71 (G1) 7:10            sea @ TB  -182       

OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)       

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =40

Game 2 wins = 13

Game 3 wins = 6

*Losses = 3 , -42.6U+ pending (Martingale)

+26.6U aggressive labby updated 5/14 PM

x-5-5-41-x-59           (won 44, lost 48 + 70.4)

5-5-5-51-59      

x-5-56-39   

if your lines are getting too fat consider splitting your last numbers.  we need a rally really badly!       

Rizz:  need to ask if you can post the game break down for all games using the o/u 9 filter (just like you do for all games played)?

Quote Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:

We all need to slapped in the face for actually laying our money on the CUBS.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  I didn't play cubs today but did put them in a parlay with col and phi.  I don't understand their lines being so high.  I think the books just love seeing people pay the chalk on them plus this series is a JM chase series and seems like they jack the chalk up in these cases also.  Some of the filters we are coming up with are a little arbitrary but look at chc ranking.  I don't think we should be laying that much on the 24th ranked home team.  I post all the potential plays especially for tracking but my feeling is this is the type of series we will be filtering out next season based on the ranking alone.

With o/u 9+ filter in place:

Record = 28-1 all teams, 23-0 home teams

All teams:

G1 = 17-12

G2 = 8-4

G3 = 3-1

Home teams

G1 = 16 - 7

G2 = 5-2

G3 = 2-0

Of course we have our friends the cubs waiting as a game 3 as a home team who passes the o/u filter.

I did that at some point. It was 152-2 with the o/u filter, I posted the game breakdowns also.

Here it is CS.  I will figure out the same with just playing home teams

Eliminating road teams doesn't change things much with the filter and didn't elminate any losses

For AL -7 G1's, -3 G2's, and -2 G3's

For NL: -3 G1's, -1 G2's