Posted:
#576
Rizz, of the 3 losses so far on the season, would any or all have been eliminated with the O/U filter?
0
Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009
Posted:
#577
Quote Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:
Rizz, of the 3 losses so far on the season, would any or all have been eliminated with the O/U filter?
Rizz, of the 3 losses so far on the season, would any or all have been eliminated with the O/U filter?
All but 1. If you only played home teams that met the o/u filter you would be 23-0, but chc meets these criteria and is playing for a possible loss tomorrow.
0
Posted:
#578
Plays for 5/15:
System record 62-4-1
Additional series 3-0-0
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
*Series #69 (G2) 1:05 pit @ CHC -240, RL -115
*Series #68 (G1/2) 2:10 was @ COL -240, RL -120
Series #71 (G2) 4:10 sea @ TB -210, RL even
OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins =41
Game 2 wins = 15
Game 3 wins = 6
*Losses = 3 , -42.6U+ pending (Martingale)
+26.6U aggressive labby updated 5/14 PM
x-5-5-41-x-59
x-x-5-x-x -59 (won 118, lost 118)
x-5-56-39-59
if your lines are getting too fat consider splitting your last numbers. we need a rally really badly!
0
Posted:
#579
All but 1. If you only played home teams that met the o/u filter you would be 23-0, but chc meets these criteria and is playing for a possible loss tomorrow.
Does this give us about the same average as far as gm 1,2, and 3 winners compared to the system up to date with no O/U filter? I'm just wondering if there is any benefit in only playing the filtered series, or best to keep playing all games?
0
Posted:
#580
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
With o/u 9+ filter in place:
Record = 28-1 all teams, 23-0 home teams
All teams:
G1 = 17-12
G2 = 8-4
G3 = 3-1
Home teams
G1 = 16 - 7
G2 = 5-2
G3 = 2-0
Of course we have our friends the cubs waiting as a game 3 as a home team who passes the o/u filter.
percentages are still good with the filter. I have had a hard time completely switching to it because it just seems arbitrary..... we'll have to see how the cubs game goes tomorrow.
0
Posted:
#581
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
Rizz, with the O/U filter in place the RL numbers are really good. Game 1,2,and 3 all hit over 50% which would never let any of the lines get too crazy. In addition, we wouldn't have to worry about carrying all of the heavy juice.
Did you have the RL results for 2007 and 2008 using the O/U filter? If so, and if all games were at that 50% or higher win rate, I think this would definitely be the way to go.
Thanks
0
Posted:
#582
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
Plays for 5/16:
System record 62-4-1
Additional series 3-0-0
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
*Series #69 (G3) 2:20 pit @ CHC -240, RL even
OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins =41
Game 2 wins = 15
Game 3 wins = 6
*Losses = 3 , -42.6U+ pending (Martingale)
+26.6U aggressive labby updated 5/14 PM
x-5-5-41-x-59
x-x-5-x-x -59 (won 118, lost 118)
x-5-56-39-59
if your lines are getting too fat consider splitting your last numbers. we need a rally really badly!
0
Posted:
#584
Quote Originally Posted by on3:
i tried looking through the thread really quick to find what is the O/U 9 filter, can someone tell me what it is? do we only play teams that are above an O/U of 9?
i tried looking through the thread really quick to find what is the O/U 9 filter, can someone tell me what it is? do we only play teams that are above an O/U of 9?
This is the first season playing this, so we are trying to sort out things some but for whatever reason in backtesting playing series with an over/under of 9 or higher had a higher percentage of wins. 152-2 for last year, and I think 167-3 for 2008. Thus far it would be 23-0 if played only home teams with that met the filter. Unfortunately, no filter can survive when dealing with the damn cubs! 
0
Posted:
#586
Plays for 5/16:
System record 63-4-1
Additional series 3-0-0
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
*Series #69 (G3) 2:20 pit @ CHC -200
OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins =41
Game 2 wins = 15
Game 3 wins = 7
*Losses = 4 , -63.6U (Martingale)
+33.0 U aggressive labby updated 5/14 PM
x-5-5-41-x-59
x-x-5-x-x -59
x-x-56-39-x (won 64)
if your lines are getting too fat consider splitting your last numbers. we need a rally really badly!
0
Posted:
#587
Okay guys, looks like all we have coming up this week are 2 game series and then interleague over next weekend, so we officially have the week off. I looked back at last year to analyze these 2 game series since our numbers are best in games 1 and 2 thus far anyway. Last year these were played 5/4-8.
AL would have been 4-2
NL would have been 8-0
for the two game series. May still be worthwhile. The o/u filter would have eliminated one win and about half of the games. What do you guys think, want to give it a roll or take the week off? Would like to clear some lines and get some of our money back but don't want to press to do so and cause us more grief??
0
Posted:
#589
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
Okay guys, looks like all we have coming up this week are 2 game series and then interleague over next weekend, so we officially have the week off. I looked back at last year to analyze these 2 game series since our numbers are best in games 1 and 2 thus far anyway. Last year these were played 5/4-8.
AL would have been 4-2
NL would have been 8-0
for the two game series. May still be worthwhile. The o/u filter would have eliminated one win and about half of the games. What do you guys think, want to give it a roll or take the week off? Would like to clear some lines and get some of our money back but don't want to press to do so and cause us more grief??
Rizz, did you mean to say the O/U would have eliminated 1 loss and half the games? Or still 2 losses with about 7 series?
0
Posted:
#591
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
Using the opening line of -145 and higher and o/u 9+ for interleague series for 2009
NL 3-0, ML and RL
AL 17-0 ML, 16-1 RL
Combined ML plays
Game 1 = 14-7, 66.7%
Game 2 = 5-1, 83.3%
Game 3 = 1-0, 100%
Combined RL plays
Game 1 = 11-9, 55%
Game 2= 6-3, 66.7%
Game 3 = 2-1, 66.7%
Losses = 1
Good memory Jake, I don't even remember doing this! I guess we can try some interleague games that pass the o/u filter. I think I will post these and the two game series under optional plays in order to keep track of them separately.
0
Posted:
#592
Quote Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:
Of the 14 total series how many were game 1 winners?
Of the 14 total series how many were game 1 winners?
okay guys missed two plays, here are the numbers AL 4-2, NL 10-0
All plays ML (14-2)
G1: 11-5 (NL was 9-1 in game 1)
G2: 3-2
L: 2
Plays with o/u filter in place (10-1)
G1: 8-3 (NL was 7-0 in game 1)
G2: 2-1
L: 1
0
Posted:
#594
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
Plays for 5/17:
System record 63-4-1
Additional series 3-0-0
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System) 5-0
*Series #6 (G1/2) 7:05 pit @ PHI -210, RL 10.5
*Series #7 (G1/2) 7:05 bos @ NYY -188 9.5
*Series #8 (G1/2) 7:10 az @ FLA -145 9
----only if closes higher than 150 opened at 140 on pinnacle---
Series #9 (G1/2) 7:10 cle @ TB -200 8.5
*Series #10 (G1/2) 8:15 was @ STL -155 9
Series #11 (G1/2) 10:10 hou @ LAD -158 8
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins =41
Game 2 wins = 15
Game 3 wins = 7
*Losses = 4 , -63.6U (Martingale)
+33.0 U aggressive labby updated 5/14 PM
x-5-5-41-x-59
x-x-5-x-x -59
x-x-56-39-x (won 64)
if your lines are getting too fat consider splitting your last numbers. we need a rally really badly!
0
Posted:
#598
Quote Originally Posted by SKiLLsSoLoN:
I thought the rules were that they had to be on a 3+ series?
I thought the rules were that they had to be on a 3+ series?
These are optional plays only. You are right the system is based on 3+ game series. We looked back and the numbers on two game series weren't bad last year. This goes for interleague games also. If you want to give some or all these series a shot go ahead, will not count toward the system record.
0
Posted:
#600
Well here how i'm doing it.
I looked at the ML and RL version and there about the same.
I play the ML if lower then -190 else I play the RL.
I just kind of started but it working out. Just got a loss from the Cubs tho but the loss was not as big due to playing the RL on most of the games.
Labby all my plays of course, I hope this works out for me.
I looked at the ML and RL version and there about the same.
I play the ML if lower then -190 else I play the RL.
I just kind of started but it working out. Just got a loss from the Cubs tho but the loss was not as big due to playing the RL on most of the games.
Labby all my plays of course, I hope this works out for me.
0
Hot Forum Topics
