Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

Rizz,

Love the post, thanks for the hard work! Regarding your NFL quarters chase, how do you determine which team qualifies? Thanks

I run the quarters chase for nba not nfl.  I could not find a database that had nfl scores by quarter and it would be very time consuming to do it manually.

For NBA, I pick my plays based on point spread, and then break down the two teams by percentages of winning qtr 1,2,3, and 4.  Avg margin of victory per quarter, and then cumulative percentages (i.e. team X at home wins either the first, second, or third quarter 98% of the time trying to be on the most likely side to hit).

Everything is based on the percentages a team covers 1/3 of the original whole game spread for the quarter, so it can sometimes get hairy if a big favorite is losing as the will usually be laying higher and higher numbers per quarter to the point where sometimes it is better to move on to the next game or switch sides (this is very rare though)

I use the same money management for that system as this one.  I had a horrible night last year playing late in the season where I lost a 4 qtr series and bailed on another after 3 (which of course would have hit in the 4th if I played it).... Either way I had recouped all those losses the very next night by working my labby lines on the 6 games I played.

It is however very time consuming and ruins your social life for a large part of the year as you will have to be by the computer, watching games, updating lines, and making plays in very short windows between quarters.

Would like to try this for NFL if anyone knows of a database with whole game spreads and scores by quarters for the last few seasons let me know.

Great! Again thanks!

Rizz, which sportbooks do you use for nba quarter plays?  Thanks

It is pretty straight forward.  If the first game of a 3 or 4 game series opens at -145 on pinnacle or closes above -150 on covers, it triggers a chase for that series.  The over/under filter of 9 or higher applies to a subset of plays that hit at a higher percentage, especially if the team is at home.  For example, last season playing just teams that had on o/u of 9 or higher set for the 1st game of the series, the record was 151-2 for the season.

5dimes, sportsbook.com, diamond, sportsbetting.com

Hopefully they also have inrunning qtrs for nfl also

Okay guys,

I finished up the NHL opening game favorite system to be ran essentially the same as this.  3 game homestand with game 1 -145 or higher on a 3 G chase:

2009:

EAST

41-0 ML

31-10 G1's (75.6%)

8-2    G2's  (80%)

2-0    G3's  (100%)

WEST

53-1   ML

37-17  G1's   (68.5%)

11-6    G2's   (64.7%)

5-1      G3's   (83.3%)

Playing puck line for all games higher than -180 adds 3 losses

2008:

East      35-1  ML

West     38-1  ML

Should be profitable with aggressive labby.  Going to start new threads for this and the nfl quarters chase to keep this thread from getting cluttered.

Plays for 8/21:

System record 215-8-1                        +174.45U with labby

Filter plays 106-2 (86-1 home teams)                                       

All Series 232-10-1

2 game series: 11-2   (G1=9, G2=2)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

## listed for those that played RL on this series, already recorded as a game 1 win as official record is kept off of ML plays.

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (26-0)    (G1=18, G2=7, G3=1)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =143

Game 2 wins = 53

Game 3 wins = 20

*Losses = 8

+174.45 U aggressive labby updated 8/21 PM

AL lines                              NL lines

5-45                                            x-13     

x-x     +25                                   5-26           

5-13                                             5-13

Plays for 8/22:

System record 215-8-1                        +174.45U with labby

Filter plays 106-2 (86-1 home teams)                                       

All Series 232-10-1

2 game series: 11-2   (G1=9, G2=2)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

## listed for those that played RL on this series, already recorded as a game 1 win as official record is kept off of ML plays.

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (26-0)    (G1=18, G2=7, G3=1)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =143

Game 2 wins = 53

Game 3 wins = 20

*Losses = 8

+174.45 U aggressive labby updated 8/21 PM

AL lines                              NL lines

5-45                                            x-13     

x-x                                              5-26           

5-13                                             5-13

For those that chased PHI for RL, your line 3 for today would be

5-29

Rizz,

Read the early threads,  thanks for sharing. Very nice for MLB and I think you said it applies to NHL as well correct? Maybe I missed it, but what is your strategy for NFL, NCAAF, NBA, or NCAAB? I think I read somewhere in the thread that you use your system to play the quarters in bball.

You could should be an email if easier as I'm catching up late on this thread, thanks.

~Red

Going to try the same strategy for NHL this year.  See other thread from today.

I run a quarters chase for NBA and am looking into doing the same for NFL.  I have also come up with a few angles for first and second half plays for NBA (non chase)

I do not have a NCAAF/B strategy at this point other than playing second halfs with Enjoy.

The systems I do have for quarters chases are quite time consuming and don't think I can take anymore on at this point.

Plays for 8/22:

System record 215-8-1                        +174.45U with labby

Filter plays 106-2 (86-1 home teams)                                       

All Series 232-10-1

2 game series: 11-2   (G1=9, G2=2)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

## listed for those that played RL on this series, already recorded as a game 1 win as official record is kept off of ML plays.

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (26-0)    (G1=18, G2=7, G3=1)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =143

Game 2 wins = 53

Game 3 wins = 20

*Losses = 8

+174.45 U aggressive labby updated 8/21 PM

AL lines                              NL lines

5-45                                            x-13     

x-x                                              5-26           

5-13                                             5-13

I did not chase this series, but those that did should have hit for 3.4U today,

Plays for 8/23:

System record 215-8-1                        +174.45U with labby

Filter plays 106-2 (86-1 home teams)                                       

All Series 232-10-1

2 game series: 11-2   (G1=9, G2=2)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (26-0)    (G1=18, G2=7, G3=1)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =143

Game 2 wins = 53

Game 3 wins = 20

*Losses = 8

+174.45 U aggressive labby updated 8/21 PM

AL lines                              NL lines

5-18                                            5-18     

5-18                                             5-18           

5-19                                             5-19

This is some fascinating stuff. Thanks for sharing Rizz, I am on it for the rest of the season and the onto the nhl,nba,nfl,wnba, whatever you say it works on!

Plays for 8/23:

System record 217-8-1                        +174.45U with labby

Filter plays 108-2 (88-1 home teams)                                       

All Series 234-10-1

2 game series: 11-2   (G1=9, G2=2)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (26-0)    (G1=18, G2=7, G3=1)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =145

Game 2 wins = 53

Game 3 wins = 20

*Losses = 8

+172.05 U aggressive labby updated 8/23 PM

AL lines                              NL lines

x-x       +46                                 5-26-27     -70

x-x                                             5-26-27           

5-19                                             5-19

Broke up the NL losses to keep lines from getting out of hand

Plays for 8/24:

System record 217-8-1                        +172.05U with labby

Filter plays 108-2 (88-1 home teams)                                       

All Series 234-10-1

2 game series: 11-2   (G1=9, G2=2)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (26-0)    (G1=18, G2=7, G3=1)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =145

Game 2 wins = 53

Game 3 wins = 20

*Losses = 8

+172.05 U aggressive labby updated 8/23 PM

AL lines                              NL lines

x-x                                             5-26-27     -70

x-x                                             5-26-27           

5-19                                             5-19

will either play cws at 24 or 32, havent decided yet.

Just wanted to express caution to anyone that may be jumping on this system.  It is late in the year and we only have a couple of weeks left.  While over the season has been profitable it fluctuates up and down, so I have no idea how it will end up.  You may want to focus on the filter passing plays if just now peeking in.

rizz what happend? you not post anymore rizz? just want to make sure, because i haven't see your post in the thread for couple day.

Shat guys, very sorry!  I have been getting absolutely killed at the hospital.  This is the first evening I have been home before 10PM last couple of days.  Missed a couple of horrible nights by the F ing Nats and Phillies.  These A holes just cost us a loss a couple weeks ago and the Phillies have been costing us money going deep into all their series

Within a couple of weeks of shutting this thing down for the season.  Was hoping we could have finished better than this.....