Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

Okay guys, while I was working on the sweep chase system (see other thread) noticed some trends for 2009 I thought we could take advantage of.  Here is what I looked at and the results thus far:

I looked at all series of 3 or more games and targeted series where one team had a line of -150 or more for the first game of the series only.  This would initiate a three game chase where you would bet on the favored team to win a game.  Once this occurred the series would be a win. 

Record for 2009 would have been: 116-3 for AL, 130-4 for NL

Total Record for 2009:  246-7

Potentially a very good profit margin is obtainable if this holds true through this season!  I know what everyone is going to say, THE JUICE MAN... okay couple of things:  This is only the line for the first game of the series and alot of the series were initiated in the -150-170 range, and the juice was highly variable in the games through the individual series where game 1 may be -170 but game two that team may be even or +.  I am going to look at this using the -1.5 RL for any game with juice >-200 to see how many losses it would add.

The other thing that was interesting is that out of these 253 series there were 51 (18AL, 33NL) sweeps by the team favored in the first game and playing the team favored by above criteria for all three game hit around 65% (for AL, still have to run it for NL)

Just out of curiousity looked back at opening day:

TEX -151, PHI -195, SEA -150, AZ -181, SF -147

All would have been Game #1 wins(5-0) with the two highest lines hitting on the -1.5 line.

Those are some amazing numbers Rizz.  A shitload of plays though!  I'm wondering if we just waited for the favs in the -150 to -170 to lose game 1 and then play them for a 2 game chase with labourchere lines might be a pretty good angle.

CS, I was thinking the same thing might be a good idea, a lot will depend on how the game 1,2,3 results look.  I will be working that out.  Here is the thing, when I initially ran this I looked at playing the -1.5 RL in all the games regardless of the line and I got 109-10 for the AL and 114-20 for the NL, and marked the winning game that way.  I didn't like the numbers as much so I went back and looked at the 30 losses to see how many would have been wins if the series were played on the ML which got me to the numbers above, so I need to go back through to determine which game would have won each series on the moneyline.  Will get it up here as soon as I get it done.  Thanks for taking a look.

Okay this looks pretty good so far:

2009 for AL:  116-3

Game 1 wins = 78       (78-41, 65.5%)

Game 2 wins = 25        (25-16, 61%)

Game 3 wins = 13        (13-3, 81%)

Playing anything with odds worse than -190 on the -1.5 RL to improve odds would not have incurred any added losses, although may have pushed you later in the series, i.e. ML play won game one, but with -1.5 play had to play a game 2 to get the win.

Stats for NL by game coming next.

Baltimore is the first loss for this season...

If Baltimore loses tomorrow they would have been a system loss so I guess you are assuming they are going to lose tomorrow?  I would not recommend making these plays until I have at least backtested to 2008.  I started looking from the beginning of the season last year to get the numbers above but we may be better off to wait a couple of weeks for us (and the oddsmakers) to get a little better sense of the quality of the teams...

Looked at 2009.  ATL would have lost in their third series of the season but there was not an increased trend toward losses at the beginning of the season... we will see.

Okay, Here are the game by game numbers for 2009 in NL.  I didn't believe these at first and went back to double check them.. Very interested to see how 2008 looked. 

2009 for NL 

130-4

Game 1 wins = 100   (100-34, 74.6%)

Game 2 wins = 23     (23-11, 67.6%)

Game 3 wins = 7       (7-4, 63.6%)

Playing all lines greater than -190 on the -1.5 RL to improve odds would have added 2 chase losses (128-6).

 

For 2009

Combined Record

Game 1 wins = 178    (178-75, 70.4%)

Game 2 wins =  48     (48-27, 64%)

Game 3 wins=  20      (20-7, 74.1%)

Might want to look into underdogs that are 150 or higher.. Can always try +1.5

Just a thought!

I looked into that angle with this initially and there was 51 sweeps by the favorites.

I just VERY quickly ran through AL for 2008 and got 117-4.  Don't hold me to that number but I bet it is pretty close.  There was one loss in the first week that season also.  I will run it more thoroughly with game number for the wins and -1.5 RL analysis.. Either way didn't see anything devastating thus far in that season.

hmm interesting, i already run something very similar to this that i just stared this yr, and so far im 2-0...

what i did was take a series where the better tm was at home, and had a decent line, not looking for a lot of juice, then i chase the home tm to win 1 gm of that series.  for example my 1st play was ATL @ SF and i got SF at +118, i only look for gms where a series is just begining and the home tm is considered a better tm....i havent back tested it but so far so good.  we have a bunch of new series starting tomorrow, so i will look at it more closely....very similar to what ur talking about

i think when using this system, u have to be selective.  I would even make a play on BALTIMORE regardless of the line, they're not very good...decent tms make this system work a lot better.  Most of the time i have noticed where u usually only need to chase 2 gms as well

Did it mater if the the beginning fav was home or away?

Impressive numbers Rizz.  The game 1 wins are way too good to pass on to make it a 2 game chase.  Rather than looking at the -1.5 RL results, I think a great way to reduce the moneyline juice would be to play a -1 RL bet.  

I have loaded all the results and lines from 2008, 2009 in excel but basically just had to go through the season team by team to find the plays.  Same info is on covers.  I didn't test -1 because I don't have that line at my book.  If you do, the numbers would be very pretty good and you could get some good odds.. When I first tested this I was taking the -1.5RL even if a teams odds were already +, -110, whatever.  If you played EVERY game on the -1 runline last year the record would have been:

223-7-23

Double Dime,

All of the AL teams that did not cover the -1.5RL were at home for the series.  2 of the ML losses would have been at home and 1 on the road. TOR lost at home and road, MIN at home.

Only 16 of the plays in the AL would have been on road teams for 2009

Milkman,

I agree selection is key.  There are a lot of potential plays but what will kill the plays is an over inflated line on a crappy team.  I will have to take guidance from the rest of you in these situations as am not a huge baseball fan and don't know the ins and outs of a lot of the teams.

15 of the series in NL for 2009 were on a road team.  One system loss came from this.

As expected the vast majority of these plays would be on home teams.

here are ones i already like that have a series starting on monday depending on what kind of lines u can get...i would use any of these for a chase if the open line is decent.....

was @ PHI

hou @ STL

pit @ SF

kc @ DET   

my only road series i like is  TB @ bal

I like them all.  I am always a little leery betting on det against KC as that has screwed me before, KC always seems to play them tough.

I will post the plays here sticking strictly to the original description to see how it does.  I randomly picked -150 as the starting point but we could look at all OG favorites reg of the spread..... will mean more plays but hopefully more profit also...

Milkman,

I ran 2009 playing all favorites in game one for a three game chase.  For AL I got 317-25, taking out the -150 or higher favorites you get 201-22, so prob will not be profitable as a whole, but if you can select out teams you feel are strong plays may work out okay.

BAL would have been the first system loss of the season today had we been playing it.

yea i was looking at the line all week and i would have enver of picked baltimore, TOR is a better team IMO.....i only select tms that i think are better than the away tm...just a safer appoarch..