New YPPT Method

Obviously. If you used statfox stats, then it will be different from my numbers. Statfox stats are inaccurate. Are these results accurate?

What I mean, did you increase/decrease predictions to make it more "realistic" final score?

For example, you have Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 (I have Chicago 18, Atlanta 23). Since 18 is not not score that often, did you decrease it to 17 points for Bears?

Also, Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 (I have it at Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26)

 

Did you decrease Buffalo and Jets?

It appears all your scores and predictions with "realistic" final numbers, but I doubt a system will produce results for ALL games.

 

 

 

The difference is 3.7 and you are giving it a 3 point difference? Shouldn't be a 4 point difference?

How does 14.6 projected score go all the way up to 17 points?

I'm just curious.

 

One more thing, at first I gave the full 3 points to Tulsa and that would of been a score of 20 and Boise would of had 28. But then I realized it seems these formulas consist of dividing up the factors so i did it that way.

Oh yeah I won too

I don't want to speak for him, but he may use other handicapping methods to decide which way to round. USF at home, on thursday night, in a big game. He probably decided to round it up, because of those factors which is what I did as well.

Yes, I did some "rounding", but it's not what I meant by differences. It's KC@WAS (16-18 and 20-14, by you and me, respectively), BAL@MIN (26-31 and 27-24), and DET@GB (33-37 and 24-38).

Other games are pretty much the same.

So, if you're not using statfox anymore, which stats do you recommend?

i've been reading this for last couple days and trying to calculate today but cannt figure out the OPP ALLOW/(+, -) , can someone help me out please.

do you mean where to get the numbers (and which numbers to use) or how to calculate?

i tried to look at stat fox for the Opp Allow number, but couldnt find it.

where Opp Allow for passing & rushing came from?

 

Interesting roughshod31.  After you split the difference you would divide the difference by 2, as usual?  If so, isn't this treating it the same way as a positive and a negative?  Just curious.

statfox --> NFL --> Game Matchup --> (choose match) Expanded Matchup --> (scroll down to Team Statistics)

in the KC@WAS example, KC's opp defense averages 110.0 ypg rushing, 197.3 ypg passing and 15.3 yppt.   

Not sure why I'm getting 17.6 and you are getting 18.3. My formulas are programmed in excel so I won't have any mathematical error. Unless you are doing some double negative splitting or whatever. I kept it pure.

which formula is better? the ark st. posting against la monroe is different from the recent postings for boise and new orleans saints. the boise and new orleans games are the original, easier to calculate formula? i tried both ways on the same games and it doesnt make a huge difference in final scores but it does make a small difference (less than 2 points) but i think accuracy is key in making these types of formulas.

vgpop,
These are the ncaaf games I posted yesterday.

Virginia +2.5
Wake forest +7
central Michigan -7
Ohio -14
Marshall +21
Nebraska -10 (buy .5)
Texas A&M -6
Virginia Tech -3
Missouri +7
Colorado state +22
Indiana +2
Norther illinos -4.5
kansas -10
Central Florida +14

Can someone do the math and agree/disagree on these games?  Everything else (with the exception of ark/texas) is well within spread.  I wanted to play ark but because the health of the QB being questionable, I left it out.

I will be using my original formula for the foreseeable future.(less confusion).

Tonights Game

Cincinnati      131.9 (R)   280.8 (P)   412.7 TYDS    22.5 YPPT

South Fla.       110.2 (R)  202.1 (P)    312.3 TYDS   21.4 YPPT

Cincinnati          20  (18.3)

South Fla.          17  (14.6)

GL

I will be playing th UNDER tonight 48.5.

sounds good.  under 49 (buying .5) for 1.5u
teaser S. FL +8 and under under 54.5 for 1u

ntwcm,

Can you explain how you used home field advantage instead of SOS.  I cant figure it out.  Let me know how you get it and what you do with it and i can figure the rest out.

Thanks

hey pegasus, your email is block...  can't email you any attachment

Pretty much use roughshod formula and get the score. From there either -1.5 for the away team and add 1.5 for the home team. Or just add 3 points for the home. Like I said Ive only done it once. I think using SOS for college football would be really tough. HFA maybe the better factor.

 

I get Cinci  17  USF 20, so thats different from others. It'll be interesting. But one thing I do agree is the under.

I've completed the table/formula in Excel so I can just highlight info from Statfox and put it in Excel for Sunday's games.

I'm going to go even a step further and also select Sagarin's ratings and have Excel read SOS as well. The only thing I need is to write the name of team in question, and Excel finds info and match everything and calculates infomation. (I ain't looking for SOS stats one-by-one if I don't have to)

(These are the results based on the owner's thread sample of Boise State/Tulsa. This is using statfox stats. If you get something different, you did something wrong....lol)

I am decreasing decimal so it shows whole number. (20 instead of 20.13, etc)

Kansas City 20
Washington 12

Houston 12
Cincinnati 40

Cleveland 13
Pittsburgh 19

Baltimore 28
Minnesota 24

St Louis 9
Jacksonville 23

NY Giants 16
New Orleans 42 (this is the one I did by hand confirming formula I am using for all calculations is correct)

Carolina 20
Tampa Bay 15

Detroit 27
Green Bay 35

Arizona 17
Seattle 23

Buffalo 11
NY Jets 24

Tennessee 14
New England 30

Chicago 18
Atlanta 22

Denver 23
San Diego 11

Philadelphia 24
Oakland 13

VGPOP - can you email me this spreadsheet?