Posted:
#1226
Quote Originally Posted by pdg893:
try statfox in the extended matchup
God Bless You. Thank You
try statfox in the extended matchup
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New YPPT Method
Posted:
#1227
Quote Originally Posted by ActionReverse:
Todays system plays from ActionReverse through filtered YPPT & HFA formula: (A/U/C)
Todays system plays from ActionReverse through filtered YPPT & HFA formula: (A/U/C)
- Syracuse +13.5
- Marshall +1.5
- Florida State +24.5
- Utah +7.5
- Utah State +3
- New Mexico State +11
- Notre Dame +10
- San Diego State +6
- UCLA +13
- Syracuse +13.5
- Marshall +1.5
- Florida State +24.5
- Utah +7.5
- Utah State +3
- New Mexico State +11
- Notre Dame +10
- San Diego State +6
- UCLA +13
(A/U/C) Filter System Play for 11/29: Chicago Bears
YPPT & HFA (+/-7) System Plays: San Francisco 49ers
- actionreverse.com
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GL
Posted:
#1235
Quote: Originally Posted by RINO808] hey Action, whats is A/U/C filters?
The A/U/C Filter is when the YPPT & HFA formula projects an Away-Underdog to Cover the spread.
Quote Originally Posted by letswin09:
Thank U, AR for keep on posting your filtered predictions and providing the link to your FREE page.
Thank U, AR for keep on posting your filtered predictions and providing the link to your FREE page.
Thanks, not so great of a week for the A/U/C NFL filter, (0-2). As predicted, past results are past results and if they weren't being played at the time, then previous results become irrelevant. Still, the filter holds at 25-12-2 dating back to Week 5.
YPPT & HFA original system 1-1 this week. SF Winner, NE Loser.
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The A/U/C Filter is when the YPPT & HFA formula projects an Away-Underdog to Cover the spread.
Quote Originally Posted by letswin09:
Thank U, AR for keep on posting your filtered predictions and providing the link to your FREE page.
Thank U, AR for keep on posting your filtered predictions and providing the link to your FREE page.
Thanks, not so great of a week for the A/U/C NFL filter, (0-2). As predicted, past results are past results and if they weren't being played at the time, then previous results become irrelevant. Still, the filter holds at 25-12-2 dating back to Week 5.
YPPT & HFA original system 1-1 this week. SF Winner, NE Loser.
Posted:
#1236
opps Duh...my bad, thanks Action...should have known that...
JaJay, what filters are you using and or what did you do to your formula. i think your the only one that had the saints covering...I also had the same prediction that Action had...Please share what you did to your formula Jayjay...thanks in advanced...
JaJay, what filters are you using and or what did you do to your formula. i think your the only one that had the saints covering...I also had the same prediction that Action had...Please share what you did to your formula Jayjay...thanks in advanced...
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Posted:
#1239
I've built a more in-depth spreadsheet now covering the YPPT & HFA formula. The original formula was focused too much on past performance and not weighted enough on the matchup at hand. I've included predicted box scores for each matchup, and I'm not sure if the results will be much different than the original formula, but you'll at least be able to see some things such as Projected Plays, Turnovers, Special Teams yardage, 3rd Down Conversion %, etc.. So if the formula itself isn't going to win for everyone (which nobody should expect it to), then you at least have those other stats right at hand to help handicap the game.
I'm also trying to come up with a formula to determine true homefield advantage to add to this. For example, HFA on a Monday Night game with Indianapolis @ New England would be weighted a lot more heavily than say a Sunday afternoon game featuring the Raiders @ Chiefs. Some attendance data for past and present games would most likely be useful in this so if anyone has easily available access to both of these it would be greatly appreciated.
Spreadsheet download and projected scores for Week 13 are here.
Also, if someone would like to post their results for this upcoming week using the original formula with StatFox predictions to compare both, that'd be helpful. I put a lot of time into the sheet, so would like to compare the two to see if there is actually a noticeable difference.
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Posted:
#1240
Action, all I can say is AWESOME, just AWESOME...BTW where do you get your stats from. it kind of looks like covers...do you just cut and paste it to your sheet...if you need any help on any of the sheets lmk, ill be glad to help out...i also like the colors you use on your sheet it look so clean...thanks again...
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Posted:
#1242
Statistics used are between pro-football-reference and ESPN and the Sagarin SOS. I have a dummy spreadsheet I use to implement the statistics from each team, that gets inserted into another page, and inserted into the final page, the one I put up for download. A lot of work for 16 box scores, but, it's worth whatever it takes to produce positive results. Trying to work on getting my own database, and ultimately onto the site which everyone will be able to just copy and paste into their own spreadsheets rather than the basic StatFox..
I do not have the college version for the picks this week as it would involve building a completely new workbook to get that statistic setup output. I will work on the games for tonight though in the meantime, and hopefully can get one up for Saturday morning for all the college games.
As for tonight, the Jets is a clear cut play when you combine the formula, which outputs a 24-17 win, counting home-field advantage to Buffalo, which there is not in this game, making the score more realistically 27-17. Combine that with Buffalo's win earlier in the year vs. the Jets in which the Jets turned the ball over 6 times compared to Buffalo's 2, and the Jets also had 6 more penalties for 32 more yards. Jets are also still technically in the playoff race so should have something to play for. If Sanchez can avoid another 2nd half meltdown and limit his INT's to no more than 2, than I don't see any reason why the Jets should not easily win this one.
Jets -3 is the play for me.
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Posted:
#1244
Sorry I didn't get to the games last night, had been a really busy night for me. I got around to crunching the #s for tonight's game and here's what I came up with.
Ohio U - 23
Central Michigan - 19
There are some injury concerns on Ohio U's side of the ball, so keep up to date on who is going to be playing in this one. I'll be playing the game regardless, as this plays into my Away/Underdog/Cover filter of the YPPT & HFA as well. Central Michigan is also a popular public team, as they've covered all but 2 games this year I believe, so I feel it's more added points to the line as it is.
I'll be posting the projected box score on my site shortly, just wanted to make sure I got on here to let everyone know what the output was for tonights game. GL everyone.
- actionreverse.com
Ohio U - 23
Central Michigan - 19
There are some injury concerns on Ohio U's side of the ball, so keep up to date on who is going to be playing in this one. I'll be playing the game regardless, as this plays into my Away/Underdog/Cover filter of the YPPT & HFA as well. Central Michigan is also a popular public team, as they've covered all but 2 games this year I believe, so I feel it's more added points to the line as it is.
I'll be posting the projected box score on my site shortly, just wanted to make sure I got on here to let everyone know what the output was for tonights game. GL everyone.
- actionreverse.com
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Posted:
#1245
NCAA Week 14 Spreadsheet is available as well as projected outcome:
https://www.actionreverse.com/ncaa-football/yppt-and-hfa-ncaaf-week-14
System Plays for today are as follows:
YPPT & HFA (+/- 7)
Houston -3
YPPT & HFA (A/U/C)
Florida Atlantic +2
YPPT & HFA Both Filters (Strongest Plays)
Fresno State +3
Arizona +7
Let's keep it rolling.
- ActionReverse
https://www.actionreverse.com/ncaa-football/yppt-and-hfa-ncaaf-week-14
System Plays for today are as follows:
YPPT & HFA (+/- 7)
Houston -3
YPPT & HFA (A/U/C)
Florida Atlantic +2
YPPT & HFA Both Filters (Strongest Plays)
Fresno State +3
Arizona +7
Let's keep it rolling.
- ActionReverse
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Posted:
#1247
Quote Originally Posted by DC_Nation:
Action-
Great picks yesterday my man!
Love the website! Keep up the good work!
What are your plays today?
Action-
Great picks yesterday my man!
Love the website! Keep up the good work!
What are your plays today?
Thank you sir, that's 4-1 college this week with the A/U/C filter, with all 3 winners yesterday cashing outright upsets.
As for NFL today, again, the projected boxscores are here, (shameless plug, useful information):
https://www.actionreverse.com/nfl/yppt-and-hfa-nfl-week-13/
It's a difficult week in the NFL, and here's why:
A/U/C Filter projects covers from:
Tampa Bay
Detroit
Both bottom of the barrel teams, and are only projected to cover each by 1 point on the spread.
YPPT (+/- 7 or more) projects:
Chargers
Saints
The Chargers are predicted to win by 22, and the Saints by 27. The Chargers is an 8.5 point difference, the Saints is a 17.5 point difference. Maybe it's me, but most everytime the system outputs such a large margin of victory, it has failed to cover from my recollection.
Close games (yppt +/- 5 - 6.5 points)
Falcons +1 (+/- 6.5)
Bears -9.5 (+/- 5.5)
Colts -6.5 (+/- 6.5, plus the Titans are a hot team)
Chiefs +6 (+/- 5)
Giants +1.5 (+/- 5.5)
I'm going to come up with something shortly for plays here, but I am leaning towards the Chargers, Falcons, Buccaneers, Lions, Bears, Giants, as my strongest games (Lions and Buccaneers because I'll always play the A/U/C filter)
It's just a matter of cutting these games down to 5 plays at most, 4 weighted different games, or just 3 plays, I'll be back by 12-12:30 ESTthe latest with exactly what I'll be playing.
GL everyone, feel free to throw your two sense in.
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Posted:
#1248
Here's what I'll be playing today, was a matter of simple things.
Don't touch favorites, especially popular public teams playing against popular public against teams, it's like a double whammy, the spread is going to be against you by 3-5 points every time.
YPPT & HFA (A/U/C)
Buccaneers +5 (Stronger Lean)
Lions +13
YPPT & HFA
Falcons +5.5 (Stronger Lean)
Giants +1.5
For those of you that may feel 100% dedicated to playing "System Picks", then the following plays are:
YPPT & HFA (A/U/C)
Buccaneers
Lions
YPPT & HFA (+/- 7)
Chargers
Saints
Don't touch favorites, especially popular public teams playing against popular public against teams, it's like a double whammy, the spread is going to be against you by 3-5 points every time.
YPPT & HFA (A/U/C)
Buccaneers +5 (Stronger Lean)
Lions +13
YPPT & HFA
Falcons +5.5 (Stronger Lean)
Giants +1.5
For those of you that may feel 100% dedicated to playing "System Picks", then the following plays are:
YPPT & HFA (A/U/C)
Buccaneers
Lions
YPPT & HFA (+/- 7)
Chargers
Saints
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Posted:
#1250
Hey Action, How Do You Know Or How Can You Predict Whether Or Not A Play Is A No Play From The System? And How Can I Improve My System To Comb That Out? For Example, With Spreads Being -13 or Some High Number Like That, Or Should My Numbers Sum Up That To Know To Pick The Underdog. Oh Yeah, Maybe I Could Help You With Your Projected Numbers Cuz Mines Damn Near Come Out To What The Actual Score Becomes. Hit Me Back And Let's Improve These Systems.
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