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New YPPT Method

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Prospect
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Posted: #226
VGPOP do you use roughshod formula?
 
All-Star
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Posted: #227
Quote Originally Posted by skan:

VG, I already have an excel spreadsheet setup just for this.  I calculated all games for this week (including ncaaf and nfl) and posted ncaaf forum already.  This is assuming my calculations are correct.

VegasMaxx, how long have you been using this prediction for your pick and how accurate is it?
I dont use this  I've got 32.37/23.80 in NYG/N.O.   And a suggestion I would make is to use more than one source for power ratings and SOS and average them.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #228
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

These are the predictions based on the system for week 6 in NFL (bear in mind that statfox keeps inaccurate stats, your scores may be just a bit different by a point or two. I found more than 20+ errors with their stats, and I gave up. (confirmed with ESPN.com and NFL.com stats)

Kansas City 16, Washington 18
Houston 14, Cincinnati 38
Cleveland 12, Pittsburgh 21
Baltimore 26, Minnesota 31
St Louis 8, Jacksonville 26
NY Giants 14, New Orleans 51 (since Giants have the worst SOS according to Sagarin, they get penalized big time and New Orleans is compensated big time. This is one of the flaws of the system)
Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16
Detroit 33, Green Bay 37
Philadelphia 24, Oakland 15
Arizona 17, Seattle 26
Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26
Tennesse 15, New England 31
Chicago 18, Atlanta 23
Denver 22, San Diego 12


Let me know if these scores and really different from your scores.

LOLOLOLOL at the Giants losing by 37 this week. I'll buy tickets to that

 
Prospect
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Posted: #229
i got
cin       21
s.fla     22
 
 
maybe i looked at wrong numbers?
 
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #230
Hey roughshod good stuff man, but I have to admit I'm a little slow trying to break this down. Could you break down a game for Sunday like you did for the Jets/Miami so I have a couple days to get it. Thanks!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #231
I'm trying to teach myself excel tonight while watching Cincy/S.Fla. if all goes well I should be able to zip these out a bit faster. Should be adventurous to say the least.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #232

VGPOP can you send me that formula to?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #233
thanks for the info about statfox roughshod
 
Prospect
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Posted: #234
Like KC and Seattle this week!
 
Legend
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Posted: #235
These are the results for college football for this weekend. Use it whatever you want. Don't go crazy with it. Remember, it's just a system.

You still need to handicap games, you lazy bastards!

CINCINNATI - Season Statistics    18
S FLORIDA - Season Statistics    15
    
    
PITTSBURGH - Season Statistics    30
RUTGERS - Season Statistics    16
    
    
OKLAHOMA - Season Statistics    22
TEXAS - Season Statistics    13
    
    
NC STATE - Season Statistics    24
BOSTON COLLEGE - Season Statistics    25
    
    
OHIO ST - Season Statistics    32
PURDUE - Season Statistics    14
    
    
    
BOWLING GREEN - Season Statistics    34
BALL ST - Season Statistics    22
    
    
NORTHWESTERN - Season Statistics    18
MICHIGAN ST - Season Statistics    37
    
    
IOWA - Season Statistics    29
WISCONSIN - Season Statistics    20
    
    
VIRGINIA - Season Statistics    39
MARYLAND - Season Statistics    20
    
    
WAKE FOREST - Season Statistics    19
CLEMSON - Season Statistics    22
    
    
BAYLOR - Season Statistics    28
IOWA ST - Season Statistics    25
    
    
UAB - Season Statistics    13
OLE MISS - Season Statistics    35
    
    
GEORGIA - Season Statistics    25
VANDERBILT - Season Statistics    15
    
    
KENTUCKY - Season Statistics    31
AUBURN - Season Statistics    37
    
    
ARMY - Season Statistics    13
TEMPLE - Season Statistics    24
    
    
WYOMING - Season Statistics    12
AIR FORCE - Season Statistics    28
    
    
MIAMI OHIO - Season Statistics    12
OHIO U - Season Statistics    33
    
    
NEVADA - Season Statistics    34
UTAH ST - Season Statistics    27
    
    
MINNESOTA - Season Statistics    13
PENN ST - Season Statistics    23
    
    
MARSHALL - Season Statistics    20
W VIRGINIA - Season Statistics    28
    
    
S CAROLINA - Season Statistics    12
ALABAMA - Season Statistics    31
    
    
USC - Season Statistics    26
NOTRE DAME - Season Statistics    12
    
    
CALIFORNIA - Season Statistics    19
UCLA - Season Statistics    20
    
    
HOUSTON - Season Statistics    44
TULANE - Season Statistics    20
    
    
TEXAS TECH - Season Statistics    11
NEBRASKA - Season Statistics    34
    
    
TEXAS A&M - Season Statistics    35
KANSAS ST - Season Statistics    23
    
    
VIRGINIA TECH - Season Statistics    45
GEORGIA TECH - Season Statistics    21
    


 
Legend
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Posted: #236
MISSOURI - Season Statistics    29
OKLAHOMA ST - Season Statistics    20
    
    
RICE - Season Statistics    18
E CAROLINA - Season Statistics    34
    
    
AKRON - Season Statistics    21
BUFFALO - Season Statistics    24
    
    
COLORADO ST - Season Statistics    17
TCU - Season Statistics    28
    
    
NEW MEXICO ST - Season Statistics    13
LOUISIANA TECH - Season Statistics    23
    
    
KENT ST - Season Statistics    24
E MICHIGAN - Season Statistics    21
    
    
HAWAII - Season Statistics    23
IDAHO - Season Statistics    33
    
    
BYU - Season Statistics    42
SAN DIEGO ST - Season Statistics    19
    
    
STANFORD - Season Statistics    27
ARIZONA - Season Statistics    26
    
    
ILLINOIS - Season Statistics    21
INDIANA - Season Statistics    25
    
    
MEMPHIS - Season Statistics    20
SOUTHERN MISS - Season Statistics    35
    
    
N ILLINOIS - Season Statistics    47
TOLEDO - Season Statistics    23
    
    
LOUISVILLE - Season Statistics    15
CONNECTICUT - Season Statistics    28
    
    
KANSAS - Season Statistics    33
COLORADO - Season Statistics    20
    
    
MIAMI - Season Statistics    30
UCF - Season Statistics    15
    
    
ARKANSAS - Season Statistics    11
FLORIDA - Season Statistics    34
    
    
NAVY - Season Statistics    38
SMU - Season Statistics    21
    
    
WASHINGTON - Season Statistics    27
ARIZONA ST - Season Statistics    23
    
    
UTAH - Season Statistics    40
UNLV - Season Statistics    19
    
    
SAN JOSE ST - Season Statistics    17
FRESNO ST - Season Statistics    43
    
    
LA LAFAYETTE - Season Statistics    29
W KENTUCKY - Season Statistics    19
    
    
TROY - Season Statistics    29
FLA INTERNATIONAL - Season Statistics    25
    
    
FLA ATLANTIC - Season Statistics    25
NORTH TEXAS - Season Statistics    28
    
    
MISSISSIPPI ST - Season Statistics    30
MIDDLE TENN ST - Season Statistics    23
 
Veteran
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Posted: #237
Good Luck and thanks for the efort!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #238
VG,
can you double check the score for kansas/colorado game?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #239
looks like this system isnt a go for college fb so far.. on prediction O/U
 
Prospect
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Posted: #240
agreed - I think this system could be good for the NFL but college is a different game - mainly because of the difference in talent levels and competion people play - I still love the system though!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #241
email me this spreadsheet when they get it?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #242
SORRY***   Would someone please email me this spreadsheet when they get it?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #243
Dont think you can post email addresses so they won't be able to.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #244
I think everyone might want to stay away from the pittsburg stats seeing that polomolu is back
 
Legend
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Posted: #245
Ok this is getting a little out of control.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #246
I was just playing with the spread sheet on excel that we put together. I an attempt to make it more realistic, I removed the non-lined games and the SE Missouri st game for Cincy in which they were a 47 point favorite and won 70-3.
 
So I calculated the rush/gm pass/gm and YPPT for both team and the defenses...however I left the off and def opponents average untouched.
 
I also added the opponents TO as a point each to the total points given up. By doing that - I came up with the following for the Cincy S.FLA game.
 
Cincy 33.35
S Fla 16.33 
 
I really think this will work if we can find a way to remove the I-AA and match-ups that don't have a line. I would say, just watch the games you are entering in the system. I know it would be tough to do this for every game...but it could be important for the games you are going to play.
 
I will do the Pitt Vs Rutgers game and let you know what I get!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #247
thanks cyearian, that sounds like a good idea.  I said earlier in the post that I like the under alot but the TO scared me a little.  I still ended up puling the trigger and lost $300 for the night.  Tomorrow is another day and hopefully we can get it back.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #248
hi guys i really am interested in helping with the spreadsheet and tinkering with it some, can anybody please email it to me or tell me how i could set it up and if i can make any useful changes i will  post it , thx
 
Prospect
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Posted: #249
okay after trying a couple of different formulas, one based on Average stats, one on HFA, one on ranking instead of SOS and adding HFA the plays that i got are as follows:

Det/GB over
Cincy
Bal/Min over
Bal
NO
Car
SD/Den Under

Im actually thinking it is not a bad looking card.  Probably wont play them blindly but interesting as far as the results go.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #250
BEFORE ANY CHANGES I GET
PITT: 27.83
RUTGERS: 15.78
 
So, I am now entering in the following.
REMOVE: YOUNGSTOWN ST
PITT O RUSH 162.4 INSTEAD OF (166)
PITT O PASS 226.2 (222)
PITT O YPPT 11.36 (11.2)
 
PITT D RUSH 122.2 (109)
PITT D PASS 249 (226)
PITT D YPPT  371.2 / 23.4(117/5GMS) = 15.87 (17.8) 117=(110PNTS + 7to)
 
REMOVE - HOWARD AND TX SOUTHERN (HUGE FAVORITE IN BOTH)
RUT O RUSH 139 (183)
RUT O PASS 173 (181)
RUT O YPPT 13 (11.50)
 
RUT D RUSH 79 (65)
RUT D PASS 295 (237)
RUT D YPPT 13.35 (18.5)
 
AFTER ALL THAT I GET:
 
PIT: 45.53
RUT: 15.40
 
If I don't use the TO's as a point each and just remove the junk games - I get.
 
Pitt: 39.66
Rut: 14.47
 
I would say Pitt based on all three. Rutgers really hasn't played anyone since Cincy. Once you take out Rutger's crap games this year they really have some piss poor numbers - this may be a route anyway!!
BOL
 
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