New YPPT Method

I really liked the under in this game too...unfortunately this is the first under I have taken during the weeknights in 3 weeks and of course tonight was the first over!!

I really think this system will be money with the NFL - there is just some tinkering that needs to be done with college - especially the weeknight games. I think this could work in some college games but I think we need to be careful with it.

I really enjoy playing with the numbers though!! We wll get it figured out!!

I kind of like the card as well!!

Here are the game probabilities for Week 6.

Damn...I thought this was the Holy Grail Solution....Only kidding this is some Great reading & info. Good Stuff. Keep up the Great Job guys. My vote for thread of the year...BOL to All

So based of of the score that you entered here I went through the lines for tomorrow and I only picked out the games that were good by a 10pnt margin...larger than first mentioned on sides. Here is what I came up with. Also, notice how accurate your scores are with the ACTUAL totals for each game - only a few are off by more than 5points.

Oklahoma +3.5

Bowling Green -3

Iowa +2.5 - (love this one by the way)

Virginia -3.5 and over

Kentucky / Auburn Over

USC / Notre Dame - under (love this too - love USC but not based on the system)

Marshall +20.5

Nebraska -10.5 and under

Va Tech -4 and under

Missouri +6.5

Colorado St +22 (not a real fan of this one)

New Mexico St +20.5

N. Illinois -7

Arkansas / Florida under

Navy -7.5

Washington +6.5

I will look them all over after Saturday but here is a good start...again before jumping on these I would do some capping on your own!! I hope we get some good results from these!!   

10/17/09

3 Noon Eastern Games 

Wake Forest + 7.0

Ohio State - 14.0

Iowa + 2.5

(I will be buying the hook for insurance purposes on these 3 games.)

GL

lou4062

Go back to simple math as it is more accurate. I am working on a improved SOS multiplier system taking into account Offensive/Defensive Efficiency vs. expected efficiency. (Using Sagarin Power Ratings/Schedule ex. Wake Forest 75.77/69.61= 1.042) I hope to post projected scores using this new method for a few games sometime later today.

GL   

Interesting roughshod.  Will this work for the NFL too?

lou4062

Not sure lou today will be a testing day. 

Game 1 New Method

Wake Forest          114.56 (R)  216.99 (P) 331.55 TYDS  18.51 YPPT

Clemson                135.69 (R)  228.38 (P) 364.07 TYDS  15.34 YPPT

Projected Score (-1.75/+1.75 HFA)

Wake Forest     (16.17)    16

Clemson            (25.49)    27

GL  

Game 2 New Method

Ohio St.   203.16 (R)   155.35 (P)  358.52 TYDS  11.41 YPPT

Purdue     129.01 (R)   252.18 (P)  381.19 TYDS   23.20 YPPT

Projected Score

Ohio St.   (29.67)      30

Purdue     (18.18)      20

Be back with some later game projections in an hour or two.

GL

Game 3 New Method

Miami OH   129.52 (R)  257.32 (P)  386.84 TYDS  27.95 YPPT

Ohio U        111.16 (R)  198.87 (P)  310.03 TYDS  10.85 YPPT

Projected Score

Miami OH    (12.09)      13

Ohio U         (30.34)      31

GL