Posted:
#1251
Quote Originally Posted by jayjay81:
Hey Action, How Do You Know Or How Can You Predict Whether Or Not A Play Is A No Play From The System? And How Can I Improve My System To Comb That Out? For Example, With Spreads Being -13 or Some High Number Like That, Or Should My Numbers Sum Up That To Know To Pick The Underdog. Oh Yeah, Maybe I Could Help You With Your Projected Numbers Cuz Mines Damn Near Come Out To What The Actual Score Becomes. Hit Me Back And Let's Improve These Systems.
Hey Action, How Do You Know Or How Can You Predict Whether Or Not A Play Is A No Play From The System? And How Can I Improve My System To Comb That Out? For Example, With Spreads Being -13 or Some High Number Like That, Or Should My Numbers Sum Up That To Know To Pick The Underdog. Oh Yeah, Maybe I Could Help You With Your Projected Numbers Cuz Mines Damn Near Come Out To What The Actual Score Becomes. Hit Me Back And Let's Improve These Systems.
It's all about how far you're willing to take your data. I keep an archive of past weeks predicted scores and compare them to the actual outcomes of the games, and then filter those results to find out which situations the YPPT formula projects accurately, and which the statistics are severely skewed.
Just an example using yesterdays Saints-Redskins game. The formula predicted a 42-15 Saints win. The books set the line @ -9.5n and it actually dropped to -9. The Saints are a very popular betting team, the Redskins are a very popular bet against team. In a game like this, the books won't be wrong on setting the line, and if that line is dropping, then there are "wise guys" on the Redskins. So when you combine just those factors, they are enough to determine the data is statistically skewed and don't completely represent the true outcome of the game. (Remember, these stats are for the year, and the Saints were very dominant early on, whereas the Redskins were getting dominated early on)
The best way to improve the system is actually getting the "Last 3 Weeks" statistics for each team. I've yet to include this in the formula, as I've been working mostly on building other spreadsheets to easily find the type of trends the formula outputs right and wrong.
For instance, tonight's game, Green Bay -3.5. Our formula projects Green Bay 27-21, a 2.5 point difference in favor of GB against the spread. Dating only back to Week 8 this year, when a favorite has a 0 - 2.5 point advantage using the formula against the spread, it has been 8-2, 80%. This would give us a play on Green Bay tonight.
Likewise with the heavy favorites I was talking about earlier. Again, dating back to Week 8, when the formula projects a favorite to have an advantage of 10+ points against the actual spread, it's a staggering 2-13, 13%. This is why I said for this week to not play either "System Favorite", and in fact, it's clearly very profitable to fade those plays.
So like I said, I'm working every day to continue to add more and more statistics to what I already have, in order to be able to filter the good from the bad, and see where exactly the money is being made using the YPPT & HFA formula.
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