New YPPT Method

These are the predictions based on the system for week 6 in NFL (bear in mind that statfox keeps inaccurate stats, your scores may be just a bit different by a point or two. I found more than 20+ errors with their stats, and I gave up. (confirmed with ESPN.com and NFL.com stats)

Kansas City 16, Washington 18
Houston 14, Cincinnati 38
Cleveland 12, Pittsburgh 21
Baltimore 26, Minnesota 31
St Louis 8, Jacksonville 26
NY Giants 14, New Orleans 51 (since Giants have the worst SOS according to Sagarin, they get penalized big time and New Orleans is compensated big time. This is one of the flaws of the system)
Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16
Detroit 33, Green Bay 37
Philadelphia 24, Oakland 15
Arizona 17, Seattle 26
Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26
Tennesse 15, New England 31
Chicago 18, Atlanta 23
Denver 22, San Diego 12

Let me know if these scores and really different from your scores.

We got back doored we'll have to try again tomorrow.

I made a mistake in the Giants/Saints game.

Somehow I gave Saints a 21.42 SOS, and Saints SOS is 18.42

So, the correct prediction is
 
Giants 17, New Orleans 44.

  This game will not be a blow out by either side, atleast I hope not.

 

Sorry, South Florida 14.6

I got the same score on my model.  17-14.  Under looks very good to me.  as for tonight's game, if it wasn't because of the fumble in 1st quarter and give momentum to Tulsa, the projected point should be correct.
I think I'm gonna play Under 48.5 large tomorrow night

I decided to calculate this game by hand using statfox stats (I am using same format roughshod31 used to calculate Boise State/Tulsa game. (Only thing I changed stats for Giants/Saints game)

Full Math Original Version:

NY Giants 13.48 (SOS)    .845

NO Saints 18.42 (SOS)     1.155

13.48 + 18.42 = 31.90 / 2 = 15.95

13.48 / 15.95 = .845 (Giants) 18.42 / 15.95 = 1.155 (Saints)

Giants (O)   160.4 (R) (+25.9)   257.0 (P) (+28.8)   13.8 YPPT (-1.6)

Saints  (D)   84.7   (R) (-30.9)    210.5 (P) (+6.0)     17.9 YPPT (+3.3)

NY Giants

160.4 - 30.9 = 129.5

84.7 + 25.9 = 110.6   

129.5 + 110.6 = 240.1 / 2 = 120.1 x .845 = 101.5 Rushing

257.0 + 6.0 = 263.0

210.5 + 28.8 = 239.3

263.0 + 239.3 = 502.3 / 2 = 251.2 x .845 = 212.3 Passing

313.8 Total Yds.

13.8 + 3.3 = 17.1

17.9 - 1.6 = 16.3

17.1 + 16.3 = 33.4 / 2 = 16.7 x 1.155 Saint's SOS = 19.3 YPPT

313.8 TYDS / 19.3 YPPT =  16.3 Projected Points

New Orleans Saints

166.2 + 0.0 = 166.2

105.8 + 46.4 = 152.2

166.2 + 152.2 = 318.4 / 2 = 159.2 x 1.155 = 183.9 Rushing

248.0 - 80.2 = 167.8

104.8 + 49.0 = 153.8

167.8 + 153.8 = 321.6 / 2 = 160.8 x 1.155 = 185.7 Passing

369.6 Total Yds

11.5 - 3.6 = 7.9

14.8 - 2 = 12.8

7.9 + 12.8 = 20.7 / 2 = 10.4 x .845 Giants SOS = 8.8 YPPT

369.6 TYDS / 8.8 YPPT = 42.0 Projected Points

Hey VGPOP,
When I see a game that supposely have similar offense/defense matchup, I just set the SOS to 1 so no advantage between both teams.  Either way, I still get

Gaints 22.22
NO Saints 31
on a good note, I just heard that Eli will play very cautious against Saints on espn because of his foot.

After seeing this thread I tried a different kind of formula incorporating Total Yards on offense and defense, kick return yards, giveaways/takeaways, SOS and Sagarin ratings.

All favorites are predicted to cover except for PIT, SD and WAS/KC was a push at 24-17 WAS.

As for the NO-NYG game I came up with something similar to what you did at have NO winning 30-23.

It's exciting to see what comes of it this week.  It's good that we share our findings and collaborate on this.

hey roughshod if you could post all of the game predictions for NFL week 6 using your system i would really appreciate it. I am going to post a link to a great site that has service picks from pros and maybe you could use some information from them and see what games you pick agree with them. Thanks man the system is awesome!!!!

https://forum.sbrforum.com/service-plays/
(that is the forum with pros picks)
gl guys

roughshod31 any chance you could post your football predictions by friday?

VGPOP..

how do u get the (+25.9) and (+28.8) for the GIANTS(O) in

Giants (O)   160.4 (R) (+25.9)   257.0 (P) (+28.8)   13.8 YPPT (-1.6)

Saints  (D)   84.7   (R) (-30.9)    210.5 (P) (+6.0)     17.9 YPPT (+3.3)????

thanks

I got almost the same thing on my spread sheet-

Cincy 17.5

S FLA - 14.63

I assume we would be thinking under here.

Someone had asked earlier about accounting for HFA - could we change the SOS ranking for the Home team to account for HFA. Technically there is usually some more energy for the home team...just a thought - I really love this thing

 

I like Under alot for tomorrow's game based on the projected scores but the only thing that concerns me to pull the trigger is the TO figures from both teams.  Both teams can create tremendous TO 8 for cinn and 7 for S. Fl.  I'm not sure how much that factor into the equation.  I hope after everything is said and done, it would cancel itself and each would only limit to only field goal scores.

VG, I already have an excel spreadsheet setup just for this.  I calculated all games for this week (including ncaaf and nfl) and posted ncaaf forum already.  This is assuming my calculations are correct.

VegasMaxx, how long have you been using this prediction for your pick and how accurate is it?

Where is the link with all the predictions/game scores? I cannot find it.

These are mine:

Kansas City 20, Washington 14
Houston 10, Cincinnati 42
Cleveland 10, Pittsburgh 23
Baltimore 27, Minnesota 24
St Louis 9, Jacksonville 24
NY Giants 17, New Orleans 42
Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16
Detroit 24, Green Bay 38
Philadelphia 24, Oakland 13
Arizona 17, Seattle 23
Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24
Tennesse 14, New England 30
Chicago 17, Atlanta 23
Denver 23, San Diego 10

Hmmm, too many differences...

 

Gameball,

Those sos ratings were from team rankings.  Roughshod uses sagarin ratings now for sos.

10/15/09

Projected Game Score

Cincinnati  (18.3)     20

S. Florida   (14.6)     17

Be back later with more breakdown of this game.

GL