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New YPPT Method

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Posted: #1

Some of you may recognize me from college bowl season, this is a new and improved YPPT predictive model.


                        Rushing  (+/-)  Passing (+/-) Total Yds.  YPPT(+/-)

Minnesota (O)    123.5 (+2.5)    198.0 (-27.0)   321.5       10.9 (-3.0)

St. Louis   (D)     135.0 (+34.1)  224.5 (+8.3)    359.5       13.3 (-1.8)

Totals/2              129.3 (+18.3)  211.3 (-9.4)     340.5       12.1 (-2.4)

Total Pre SOS     147.6             201.9              349.5        9.7

SOS (M)  .945      139.4             190.8              330.2       N/A

SOS (STL) 1.055                                                           10.2

                                 330.2 YDS / 10.2 YPPT  =  32.4

                                32/33 Not Common  Scores Use 31/34

Predicted outcome using this method.

Minnesota      31

St. Louis          7

GL  



 
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Posted: #2
I don't get it but Minny all the way
 
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Posted: #3
Hey roughshod,
I don't think I am going to finish the math in time!...lol...Are you going to post all nfl games this week?  I like the way the new system is it's just going to take me time...thanks for posting the thorough example
 
 
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Posted: #4

I will try to get them all.

Dallas            27

Kansas City   17

Upset Special

Cleveland        23

Buffalo            20



 
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Posted: #5
Thanks roughshod, I appreciate it.  Good luck to you too!
 
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Posted: #6

Cincinnati            24

Baltimore             21

I'm Trying LOL.

 
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Posted: #7

Pittsburgh             24

Detroit                  23


I'm Loving the DOGS today baby.

 
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Posted: #8

Washington        10

Carolina              14

UNDER   37.5

 
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Posted: #9

Tampa Bay         14

Philadelphia        31

1 to go in the early games.

 
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Posted: #10

Oakland        14

NY Giants      23

Note:   I ONLY play SIDES that are +/-  4 PTS  & TOTALS that are +/- 10.5 PTS on predicted models. Todays early plays are.

Minnesota  -10.5

Washington UNDER 38.0

Cleveland  +5.5

Cincinnati   +9.0

Detroit     +11.0

GL



 
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Posted: #11

Sorry Missed

Oakland   +15.0

 
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Posted: #12
Thanks again, roughshod!  Next week I will try to do this myself...lol  One thing about the min/stl game as far as sos.
 
On team rankings I see min as a 25.8 and stl as a 23.7 sos.
 
23.7/25.8 = 1.088 for min?
.088/2 = 1.044 for min and .956 for stl?
 
Maybe you are using a different site or I am doing something wrong?
 
Thanks again, for everything.
 
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Posted: #13
Don't you have to consider that winning and losing games greatly effect yppt. As games go on teams benefit from winning or look worse because they are losing. For example NFL defenses are awful after they've been on the field for 50 plays. Also, quarterbacks look better when they haven't been hit etc, etc. I have no idea how to incorporate that into your formula or if you would want to. The first place I would look would be in the NCAAF where any good formula would prob result in Bama, Flor, and Texas as the top rated team.
 
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Posted: #14

Sorry lou  I used.

Minnesota    19.60 SOS

St.Louis       21.86 SOS

                   41.46/2 = 20.73

                   19.60/20.73 = .945  (Using Sagarin SOS)

 
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Posted: #15

Mid Afternooners are done.

Atlanta              13

San Francisco    21


New England      13

Denver                14


Houston               17

Arizona                 34


Jacksonville          21

Seattle                 23

GL    See Ya  for Tenn./Indy.

 
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Posted: #16

Late Plays.

San Francisco   Even

Arizona              -5.5

Denver                +3.0   &    Under   41.5

GL

 
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Posted: #17
try to figure out the math - so far you doing well today


 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Sorry lou  I used.

Minnesota    19.60 SOS

St.Louis       21.86 SOS

                   41.46/2 = 20.73

                   19.60/20.73 = .945  (Using Sagarin SOS)

 

No need to appoligize roughshod,  I was looking at the wrong thing.  You have been a big help!  Again, I appreciate it!

 
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Posted: #19

It has been a prosperous day for the predictive model going 8-2.

Tonights Game

Indianapolis        28

Tennessee          17

Play: Indianapolis -3.5

GL

 
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Posted: #20
willing to explain your system in more detail?
 
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Posted: #21
Excellent job roughshod!  Last time I knew, 80% against the spread was pretty darn good!  I realize it doesn't happen every week but 8-2 in ANY week is great!  Thanks for sharing.
 
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Posted: #22
Can you break down the math?
 
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Posted: #23
What is YPPT?
 
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Posted: #24
No clue how the math works but your algebraic equations seemed to work out, well done!
 
 
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Posted: #25

Thanks everyone the niceness means alot.

I will try to explain the math w/the Jets/Dolphins game.

YPPT is Yards Per Point.

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