New YPPT Method

10/2/09

Projected Scores Tonight

Atlanta             24           21

New Orleans     30           31

Both projections are system NO PLAYS.

For what its worth I'm on the under tonight. ( UNDER 56.0)

GL

Ya think?

Hi Rough and VG,

First I would like to thank  you guys for sharing your picks and all your hard work that you put into this system. Even though I had a bad week, one must remember that we all had a bad week. But thats why they call it gambling. No one put a gun to my head or anyones head for that matter to bet on some of your recommended picks, so we only have ourselves to blame for making descisions that didnt work out this week. But hey next week is another week. There is still alot of football left and a great opportunity to kick some ass and beat the books. Dont let the negativity get to you guys, stay strong and percervier. Looking foward to your next posts and picks. Be well and thanks again.

PasqualeF

Hey guys! thanks for the hard work, i been following this system and i might start backing it, i really like it ...i know it was a hard week, but you can't always win, what makes this system even better for next week. Just a little proposal, is there a way you guys can start a thread for every week plays for better tracking purposes?? that will be a lot easier, thanks again...let's keep in the winning side!!

Yep, for a fact.

If you was that good, Las Vegas would send a hit man for you already, 2nd, you would be too busy counting money to even have time to read this thread. 3rd, any math and statis PHD would tell you the law of average, and you obviously dont know all 3.

Not trying to be a hater but if you dont like what others spend thier valuable time to help other, you should get a bot and start spaming your 1-800-pick2win.

The proof is below,  out.

QUOTE Originally Posted by VGPOP:

NFL Week 8 Predictions


Atlanta 27 - New Orleans 31 (Monday Night)

Thanks VG and Rough for another winning week. Really appreciate your hard work.

I would buy you guys a couple  if I can.

Hey Roughshod and VGOP I like to copy the sentiments that you guys are doing a great job. I've always been infatuated with finding a statistical measure to help pick games. Roughshod, you wanted to continue to find ways to improve the system. I honestly think the best way to pick games is through a combination of statistics and pure fundamentals. I don't think 1 or the other on its own is perfect. Not everything in your statistical model (ex. injuries, new starters, emotions, etc) can be embodied in past number production. For example if Peyton Manning gets hurt and is out this week, you can't just blindly take the Colts b/c the YPPT model says Indy will win. I know that's an extreme example but there are situations like this that needs to be examined in addition to the stats. My best advice is to use your YPPT method as a starting ground to narrow down the opportunities first to a manageable sample size of games then within that set of games do some more analysis on the injury and emotional factors. We all know emotions play a huge part in football. For example, you just knew UCONN was going to come out two weeks ago and play hard against WVU after the death of Howard. And they did and covered. Things like look ahead and let down games are important as well. I compare this analysis to the stock market. Some like to simple use technical analysis (reading charts, trends, etc) and others like to just look at fundamental analysis (revenues, earnings, company health, valuation, etc) but it has been proven throughout the years that the best method is a combo of the two.

Keep up the good work.

Below are the calcuations for week 9 using the original method of YPPT without the recent adjustments being made by VGPOP and Roughshod. I used HFA of 1 to 2 points and USAToday's strength of Schedule.  I wanted to post the games with the strongest leans based on this method and compare it to the results posted by VGPOP and Roughshod.

Note these are not the system plays posted by the hosts of this thread, I am simply trying to compare methods and results, and not taking into conisderation any situational analysis:

New Orleans 52 Carolina 17

San Fran 36 Tennessee 16

San Diego 34 New York 27

Dallas 31 Philadelphia 23

Denver 24 Pittsburgh 13

Leans based strictly on the YPPT numbers: Saints and Over, 49ers and Over, Chargers and Over, Cowboys, Broncos

10/3/09

As I mention all the time on this thread I am constantly tweaking here, and making small adjustments there trying to increase the accuracy of the system. In this most current variation I will be using this week I weigh each teams adjusted power rating as 1/3 of the SOS multiplier along with 2 different SOS ratings making up the other 2/3. I am also adjusting final projected score based on the projected # of yards each team is projected to achieve. The purpose of this is to hopefully downsize the number of times where a team has an unusually higher YPPT but is projected to out gain their opponent by a wide margin throwing off the system in doing so.

Tonights Game

Adjusted Projected Score

Bowling Green           28

Buffalo                       23

System Play: Bowling Green +3.0

GL

rough & VG---great work and thanks for the added insight.  The tools you have given us to use need to be just that.  Tools to use.  Some of these guys are tools.  Again, THANKS, and keep up the great work!  

rough & VG---great work and thanks for the added insight.  The tools you have given us to use need to be just that.  Tools to use.  Some of these guys are tools.  Again, THANKS, and keep up the great work!  

rough & VG---great work and thanks for the added insight.  The tools you have given us to use need to be just that.  Tools to use.  Some of these guys are tools.  Again, THANKS, and keep up the great work!  

Can someone post up this weeks games similar to last please??

Took a shit kicking this week, but the week prior was solid.

Last week, 26/53 over all and 10/20 system plays