New YPPT Method

Hi Lou,

I got the HFA from USA Today, along with the Sagarin SCHEDL number.  I'm not actually sure if it should be .68 or 1.36.  But the thing I don't like about the HFA is that it's the same across the board, which doesn't quite make sense to me.  I was looking for a better way to calculate HFA, but go side tracked.  And I still think there were anomalies this weekend that skewed the winning percentage, like MIA! 

I want to say thank you to all of the supporters in this thread. It means a great deal to me that that the majority of you understand that we have to expect some not so positive results from time to time. I am in this for the long haul with full understanding that there will be bumps in the road so to speak. After weeks like this one I am more dedicated than ever t make this thing work. I will continue to look for any little edge to help us beat the book. The only failure here would be to quit now. If any of you have anything  to contribute here hat might help fee free to voice your ideas. Airmail26 someone as witty as you must have a plethora of brilliant ideas to share with those of us who have failed so miserably. Please enlighten us with your vast knowledge, I know I speak for the rest of us when I say PUT UP OR SHUT UP!

hey recon,

I hear ya on the tough week .   

I wish we could start week 9 right now!  As far as the hfa ratings, I just thought that was the total to add according to the directions, not that it would have mattered this week.

hey recon,

I hear ya on the tough week .   

I wish we could start week 9 right now!  As far as the hfa ratings, I just thought that was the total to add according to the directions, not that it would have mattered this week.

To everyone,

 

Sorry for the double posts!

Karameat. I have said many times that I have read all of the posts.  All 950 of them. and all 220 of the college posts.  How do you think I just quoted specific posts.

So VGPOP.  If you post the final scores on a Wednesday....and it's a system play on Wednesday but not Saturday because the line has changed......if someone bets it on Wednesday night before the line has moved would it not still be a system play?  The line changing would not change your predicted outcome of the game would it?

I totally get what you are saying about the line changing but do you see the other side of the coin as well?  If your final post had 15 plays how did we get 11-9 on the results?

No you still don't get it. Stop worrying about what I post and you think is the "official" final plays.

Go back again to the thread, and look at post of the final predictions (I think I posted it at 11:40am ET), open up scoredandodds.com, and check the FINAL closing lines of each game and compare it to the post I made.

Do you know how to add and subtract? Look for plays that the difference was +/- 7 points from scoresandds.com closing lines.

I

+

 

Go get'em roughshod!  You positively have are support out here!  Now, get back to the lab and let us deal with the unwanteds!

VGPOP

I am looking for a way to incorporate first downs & 3rd down conversion % into the system in a meaningful way as I feel that they both generally indicate how a game went. Any ideas on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Roughshod31

lou , georgia is only about 460 miles away from new orleans. Just a little trip. Ryan is pretty cerebral. I think the mistakes he made last week against dallas is fixed.  I am with you I think NO wins but does not cover.

Did you guys also notice that the totals were pretty close also?

Did you guys also notice that the totals were pretty close also?

For shits and giggles I teased 6 totals and 4 totals of the games that were furthest from the o/u lines.....Won them both. 

Actually it was a 7 teamer.

10/27/09 22:59 ET Result: Wager Won

Colts(Indianapolis) 18 11/01/09(13:05 ET) Under 49.5

Ravens(Baltimore) 30 11/01/09(13:05 ET) Under 47.5

Bears(Chicago) 30 11/01/09(13:05 ET) Under 46

Eagles(Philadelphia) 40 11/01/09(13:05 ET) Over 38

Cardinals(Arizona) 21 11/01/09(16:20 ET) Over 35

Chargers(SanDiego) 24 11/01/09(16:10 ET) Under 47.5

Bills(Buffalo) 10 11/01/09(13:05 ET) Under 47.5

Nice! I really believe in this system, now that I finally got it going, lol.  There will be flukes here and there but hey that's part of gambling and we're just trying to get an edge right? So there are other factors to consider when handicapping and this system just seems to take the technical part out of the equation, then there are fundamentals to consider.

Cause it have a better chance of winning than your picks.

Good is good enough for alot of us, show us a great system then we will follow your post.

I am sorry that makes no sense.  You are posting what your SYSTEM says the final score is going to be.  And you are saying that if the spread is more than 7 points from that score that it should be an official play.

SO it shouldn't matter what the final line is.  If we get a line that is +/- 7 from the final score YOU post it should be a play.  The line at gametime means nothing...unless you are betting at gametime.

If I can get a line that puts me 10 points away form your final score prediction and the line than changes 4 points...too bad for waiting.  That's my point.

So who put a gun to your head to bet what one person figured out to be a good bet???

You might as well go into every thread and tell them they were wrong when they pick a team that loses.

My guess is that you made a username just to bash these guys because they did not give 100% winners and you lost on a couple of bets trying it.

I don't see one pick out of your 28 posts....Too busy being a Dick ?

I'm sorry?

Since when this system was developed for YOUR NEEDS?

And obviously, it makes no sense to you, you're an idiot. Plain and simple.

Airmail-

We get it.  You don't agree with the system.  Stop wasting everyone's time trying to prove it doesn't work.  In case you missed something, the majority of us believe the system works and helps us to make picks as well as handicap our own games.  Quit trying to place your losses on VR and ROUGH.  Yes, there were some losses but overall the system works and is a great tool for helping handicap.  So tired of seeing you post negative feedback.  Move on man.

Covers really need an IGNORE button. This feature is a must in this website.

You create a thread and you click "Ignore" on someone and you never have to read from this person again.

Looks like I was right. 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=100571518

 

Thanks Roughshod  and VGPOP for your work and sharing. I lost every game I played on Sunday, but the plays were a combination of your system, DPR and my handicapping mentors selections who are consistently over 65% every season. So it just shows that even though you handicap the games and draw on experts opinions and utilize this system does not mean you will win every week. This is a long term search for an advantage that will lead you to a winning season. My experts are great, this system looks very solid and DPR is a very important factor. The results though each and every week will not always be winners...this is gambling and hopefully we learn from the valid efforts of the guys who worked on this system and our own sources...bottom line we all have to take responsibility for our own plays. No system or handicapper is perfect. Thanks again for all the hard work and sharing. There is always guys who feel they will find the "holy grail" and live happily ever after. Not going to happen. Study..learn...be happy when you hit and be a man and take your losses. Is life is it not?

I totally agree with JimmyJet.