New YPPT Method

Hey all,

Did anyone try using the home/road game numbers?  It went 6-6 this weekend if you played all games.  Although it had the NYJ winning against Mia, it would have been correct but Mia had 2 punts for TD and a fumble for TD, which amounted to 21 points.  So without these picks, it would've been NYJ 25 MIA 9, which would've made the home/road system 7-5.

recon

Home/Road System for tonights game, Atlanta top number, NO bottom.

Got anything positive to contribute Airmail26 ?

System picks went terrible this week, but I still like the calculations that everybody had developed here.   Tweek as you see fit I think, and as several have stated in this thread and others, "You still have to cap the games!"

Next week, I don't think I'll blindly follow what the spreadshee tells me and stop to consider if I actually beleive in the play.....

It is just something to compare your handicapping with. VGPOP or Roughshod does not force you to take their predictions and bet them. I really don't understand what your problem is. It is trial and error and everyone helping each other out. We are all trying to beat the system and are on the same side.

Are you stupid or plain dumb?

I've never tweaked this system. What I've done is to remove DIV AA scores with updated Sagarin SOS ratings.

I've updated the college scores about 20 minutes before 12:00pm ET kickoff games.

The system is still the same. IT HAS THE SAME FORMULA, you dumbshit.

Do me a favor, and stop posting in this thread and the college one.

What is your problem anyway?

Quote Originally Posted by icurpickslose:

This system is good but not great

This remains to be seen.

Regardless on how it does the remaining of the season, I will continue to monitor to determine if it's good or not.

ANY PERSON LOOKING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO HIT 60% OR MORE EVERY SINGLE WEEK WITH NO EXCEPTIONS, GET OUT OF THE THREAD AND NEVER COME BACK

I really mean it.

If you don't handicap your games and play systems based on its past records, you might as well flush the money down the toilet.

I think the base of the system is good, but a lot of "what if's" could be built into the calculations. 

What if the road team is above .500 on the road, should you still consider a HFA adjustment ?

If the offensive vs defensive stats are drastically different, should the calculation be more weighted ?

This should work as a great game analysis tool, if one can find the time at work to do the analysis......

Hi KaraMel, below is points for All games and not just home/road

So it seems that they fare better indoors.  Thanks for pointing that out.  GLTA!

As long as it can hit 50%, I'll tail it as an improvement.

Cheers!

Agree wholeheartedly.  Thanks for dealing with this nonsense and please continue to help us make $$.  I think your system is the best out there and obviously it's been tweaked many times.  The smart people with look at this plays and look at the games induvidualy to determine which games are best.  Thanks again for all the hard work man. 

Here is my problem with you VGPOP.  And this is documented in the college post.

Post #19 you had 22 picks for the week

Post #100 you had 25 picks for the week (you added 3), great.

Post #163 all of a sudden we are down to 15 picks for the week. Including deleting West Virginia which had already played the night before and LOST.

Post #194 we see the results and there are 20 system picks and all of a sudden we are 11-9.

Do you see where the fuzzy math starts to come into play?  4 post by YOU, all with different picks.

So please don't say the picks haven't changed unless you are going to point to specific posts that show the consistency.

I can't even believe I am answering this, but here we go.....

All system plays are the ones the differ by at least +/7 points from Vegas line.

The ones that I document are the ones that are at least +/-7 points from Vegas CLOSING LINES.

For example,

If the system predicts team A to win by 24 points, at the beginning of the week, team A is laying -16 points.

Team A is a play at the moment (24 -16 = 8 points difference).

But when game is about to start and team A is laying -19 points (it increased 3 points from opening lines), then unfortunately it's not a system play (24-19 = 5 point difference).

All plays have been documented from scoresandodds.com FINAL CLOSING LINES.

In the case of West Virginia against South Florida, it was initially a system play with the original system.

But since I adjusted Sagarin SOS numbers (removing games played against DIV AA), then it became a non-system play.

That's actully my fault, and I admit to that.

But hey, don't you blame me or the system.

Did you handicap this game? Did you look for numbers and stats that pointed out West Virginia cover?

Did you read previews? Team notes? Trends? Matchups?

If you didn't do any any of that, don't you EVER come to this thread and bash the system because you didn't handicap this game.

This is the reason, YOU STILL NEED TO HANDICAP YOUR GAMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hiya recon!  I have a question about your example:  Shouldn't the HFA be - .68 and +.68?  I thought the 1.36 was the total HFA?  Maybe I screwed up.

Hey kara!

Good point about the domes but....you still have Atlanta traveling from the east coast and New Orleans at home in a comfortable enviroment.

My 2cents: I think Nol will win to be 8-0 but not cover.

Good luck!

Like I  said, I don't think airman read all the pages!!