New YPPT Method

New Test Model YPPT System

In this model I am using a different set of Power Ratings,Capping the YPPT high & low end @ 25.0/10.0. (Helps keep scores a little more believable). And lastly I am using a variated SOS system where I use the sportsbook .com average power rating of opponents played @ 75% and Sagarin Pure Points - average league schedule ( 20.20 for NFL & 68.93 NCAAF) 25%.

Projected Scores Using this Model

Denver           21

Baltimore       14

Cleveland       14

Chicago           21

Houston           17

Buffalo             21

San Francisco   14

Indianapolis       23

Miami                23

NYJets               17

St. Louis             10

Detroit                 30

Seattle                 20

Dallas                   24

NY Giants              35

Philadelphia          21

Minnesota              27

Green Bay              21

Oakland                  10

San Diego               28

Jacksonville             20

Tennessee                27

Carolina                   10

Arizona                     35

NCAA Sunday Night

Marshall                    17

Central Florida          20

Teams that would meet +/-  7 pt. differential ( Denver, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, NY Giants, Minnesota, and Arizona)

DO NOT PLAY THESE GAMES AS THIS IS A TEST MODEL!

GL

 

Check my profile comments for download link to spreadsheet.  roughshod's system.  (courtesy of GSHawk20 for sharing)

 

I get an error message on rapidshare, and the other one just keeps loading

try it again

THANKS, for all of your hard work guys

Yes thanks...I believe the early 3 games are 0-3.  Thanks for all of your hard work donkeys.  Let's see if we can get back to 2-3 this afternoon.

Let's see 6-2-1 + 0-3...Does that make this system just like any other one?  I believe so.

oh hello Airmail - u r back ..

Yep - I am back.  Just want make sure all the kool aid drinkers got a reality check.  Good news...we are 2 hours away from going 0-5.  Great work guys!!

I dont know about the rest of the days action but this thread was one of the determining factors in me taking Miami +3.5. Thank You for the help on that.

 

Okay i know that there are several of variations out there, so which variation seem to work the best...and could someone explain the differences in the variation....i know that you guys get the SOS from usa today, are you guys just using the schedl rank #?

thanks in advanced, im working on make the sheet show and calculate every game...NFL wont be that bad but NCAA will take some time.  I just want to make sure i get everything in order before i make the sheet.  i will definately pass it out when im done.

Why are you guys wasting your time with this garbage? 

thanks for posting the download link! but i was wondering where you were getting the strength of schedule number already in the spreadsheet for atlanta and new orleans? im looking at usa today's sagarin rating and i cant find 28 and 26.9 anywhere on the page. also, do you know which version the roughshod's original formula this spreadsheet is using?

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Denver 23 - Baltimore 15 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE
 
Cleveland 13 - Chicago 23 LOSE
 
Houston 22 - Buffalo 16 WIN

Minnesota 23 - Green Bay 25 WIN

San Francisco 14 - Indianapolis 24 WIN

Miami 19 - NY Jets 20 WIN

St Louis 10 - Detroit 25 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Seattle 23 - Dallas 20 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Oakland 10 - San Diego 34 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Jacksonville 23 - Tennessee 22 LOSE

Carolina 9 - Arizona 38 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

NY Giants 39 - Philadelphia 22 (***SYSTEM***) LOSE

Atlanta 27 - New Orleans 31 (Monday Night)


System plays (+/- 7 points or more difference): 0-6-0 (0%)
Non-system: (+/- 6.5 points or less difference): 4-2-0 (66.7%)

After three outstanding weekends picking 18 winners out of 24 selections, system can't pick a single winner this week. All six system plays lose.

System plays stands at 18 wins - 12 losses - 1 Push (60%).

3 winning weekends, 1 losing weekend.

That's how systems are, sometimes.

Let's see what happens next week.

Take it easy....

It's worth pursuing despite this bad weekend. Even if the system proves a failure its still giving us something. I thank everyone who has put in any time at all on it. Please keep up the good work.

Money manegment after 4 weeks,your a winner good work,keep it going lets see how it plays out.

appreciate your hard work guys....please continue to post.  It really helps us out.  I would not know where to turn if it wasn't for this system.  THANKS A BUNCH, even with a tough day in the NFL.  LATE

this is a good system, just a bad week 8, too many 3-3 teams vs 6-0 ones... just don't use this system on week 8.

Hi, I'm new to all of this new sports statistics, but I was wondering how you get the "Opp. Allow" information to do this YPPT method. I understand everything else except for the part which gives you the "(+/-)" numbers.

  A HEAD BANGING WEEK IN THE NFL........

den10808,

Check statfox, expanded matchup and look for the stats near the bottom, opp allow = Opp Def Avg.

So what about tonight? Looking forward to the prediction. I believe I am taking the underdog, but want to look at the predicted score.

Drink the Kool Aid folks.  Go print out all of the posts with the college picks for this week and tell me it was a positive weeks.  1 minute there were system plays and the next minute there were a whole new set of system plays.  If you give enough scenarios you can always find one with a positive result.

Has anybody run this sheet with any historical data to backtest what we have here?

This system is good but not great