All Forums | Systems & Strategies

New YPPT Method

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 253699
Posts: 1286
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 20621
Posted: #501
Jsan everyone starts off with the same numbers its what happens after that is what throws everyone off. Some poeple dont add pos and neg #'s if you dont ave. all the number they just become inflated.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 252
Posted: #502
Quote Originally Posted by Jsan:

rm2673 ... Are you using the info from where ncsu said to get from ... Use that instead of the individual team stats .... copy/paste and whammo its there ....



wow i don't know why but when I use firefox, it doesn't work, but when I use chrome it works. strange.
Now i have to reformat my excel spreadsheet to match the dataset on statfox.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 790
Posted: #503
Quote Originally Posted by rm2673:



Yea I know how to copy and paste but when I paste all the numbers are in one cell. what am I doing wrong?


Do a paste special and check "paste as text"
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 14
Posted: #504
rkydyk.. Understand I think thats where we need to all pull together and come up with a set standard that works and use that model ... Im trying to come up with the formulas on the spread sheet that once you copy and past then it pulls the exact data from the collumns does the calculations for us .... but just need clearer channel on how we can all get together and do it this way ... Your thoughts
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 2256
Posted: #505
Quote Originally Posted by rm2673:



Yea I know how to copy and paste but when I paste all the numbers are in one cell. what am I doing wrong?


After you have copy the stats from statfox
Right click in excel
Click paste special
A menu will appear
Select unicode text
And you are done.
ENDIF
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 2
Posted: #506
Never mind, I managed to figure out what I did wrong.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #507
Having a little fun with Excel, people?

This is the result on college football for tonight's game.

(I will be doing all college games later today and post the result for people who wanted the results. I suggest looking at the the predictions that differ at least +7 points from vegas line).

Rutgers 24
Army 13
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 791
Posted: #508
Quote Originally Posted by rkydkydoc:

OK Lets Break Down the FSU/NC game

I'm not claiming to be 100% correct but I think its pretty darn accurate to what roughdrod31 was showing at the beginning of this thread. Originally he didn't include HFA (home field adavantage) but we will from here.

Start with FSU (sos) strenght of schedule/saragin USA Today

FSU 77.68

NC 65.38 + 3.50(HFA)=69.08

Add 77.68+69.08=146.76 Divide by 2 to get AVE. 146.76/2=73.38

FSU 77.76 divided by 73.38 = 1.06 (1.059)

This number will be used to calculate FSU offense and NC YPPT

NC 69.08 divided by 73.78 = .94

Start with FSU (we'll round up) All numbers from statfox

                RUSH     PASS       YPPT

FSU(off)    128(-8)    298(+86)    14.3(+1.5)

OPP DEF  136        212            15.8

NC(def)      113(-25)  125(-28)     16.8(-3.2)

OPP OFF   138        153            13.6

FSU Rushing  128+NCDEF 113= 241/2 AVE 120.5

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (-25)= -33/2 AVE -16.5

FSU RUSH 120.5 + (-16.5) = 104 x FSUsos 1.06= 110

FSU Passing   298+125=423/2 AVE 211.5

AVE Between OPP +86 - (-28) =58/2 AVE  +29

FSU PASS     211.5 + 29 = 240.5 xFSUsos 1.06 =255

(the 255 is differant from my other post couldn't read my writing,sorry)

 YPPT            14.3 + 16.8 =31.2/2 AVE 15.5

                       +1.5 - (-3.2) = -1.7

                      15.5+ -1.7 = 13.8 x NCsos .94 = 12.97

FSU  110 + 255 = 365 / 12.97 = 28.14

                      RUSH     PASS      YPPT

NC (off)            111(-42)   172(-8)    12.5(-.6)

OPP DEF AVE 153          180        11.9

FSU(def)           174(+5)    252(+36) 15.1(-2.1)

OPP OFF AVE  169          216         13.0

NC RUSH         111+174= 285/2 AVE 142.5

AVE Between OPP -42 - (+5) = -37/2 = (-18.5)

 Total                142.5 +(-18.5) = 124 x NCsos.94=117

NC PASS          172 + 252 = 424/2 AVE 212

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (+36) = +28/2 = +14

     Total               212 + 14 = 226 x NCsos .94  = 212    

YPPT                  12.5 + 15.1 = 27.6/2 = 13.8

                           ( -.6) - (-2.1) = -2.7

                            13.8 + (-2.7) = 11.1 x FSUsos 1.06 = 11.77

NC     117 + 212 = 339/11.77 = 28.80

             FSU  28.14  27

             NC    28.80  30       

Number seem pretty close to me NC ave. 29 at home and FSU ave 29 for the year

 

Was this not the exact score?? I'd say go with this method. :)

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 791
Posted: #509
Quote Originally Posted by rkydkydoc:

OK Lets Break Down the FSU/NC game

I'm not claiming to be 100% correct but I think its pretty darn accurate to what roughdrod31 was showing at the beginning of this thread. Originally he didn't include HFA (home field adavantage) but we will from here.

Start with FSU (sos) strenght of schedule/saragin USA Today

FSU 77.68

NC 65.38 + 3.50(HFA)=69.08

Add 77.68+69.08=146.76 Divide by 2 to get AVE. 146.76/2=73.38

FSU 77.76 divided by 73.38 = 1.06 (1.059)

This number will be used to calculate FSU offense and NC YPPT

NC 69.08 divided by 73.78 = .94

Start with FSU (we'll round up) All numbers from statfox

                RUSH     PASS       YPPT

FSU(off)    128(-8)    298(+86)    14.3(+1.5)

OPP DEF  136        212            15.8

NC(def)      113(-25)  125(-28)     16.8(-3.2)

OPP OFF   138        153            13.6

FSU Rushing  128+NCDEF 113= 241/2 AVE 120.5

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (-25)= -33/2 AVE -16.5

FSU RUSH 120.5 + (-16.5) = 104 x FSUsos 1.06= 110

FSU Passing   298+125=423/2 AVE 211.5

AVE Between OPP +86 - (-28) =58/2 AVE  +29

FSU PASS     211.5 + 29 = 240.5 xFSUsos 1.06 =255

(the 255 is differant from my other post couldn't read my writing,sorry)

 YPPT            14.3 + 16.8 =31.2/2 AVE 15.5

                       +1.5 - (-3.2) = -1.7

                      15.5+ -1.7 = 13.8 x NCsos .94 = 12.97

FSU  110 + 255 = 365 / 12.97 = 28.14

                      RUSH     PASS      YPPT

NC (off)            111(-42)   172(-8)    12.5(-.6)

OPP DEF AVE 153          180        11.9

FSU(def)           174(+5)    252(+36) 15.1(-2.1)

OPP OFF AVE  169          216         13.0

NC RUSH         111+174= 285/2 AVE 142.5

AVE Between OPP -42 - (+5) = -37/2 = (-18.5)

 Total                142.5 +(-18.5) = 124 x NCsos.94=117

NC PASS          172 + 252 = 424/2 AVE 212

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (+36) = +28/2 = +14

     Total               212 + 14 = 226 x NCsos .94  = 212    

YPPT                  12.5 + 15.1 = 27.6/2 = 13.8

                           ( -.6) - (-2.1) = -2.7

                            13.8 + (-2.7) = 11.1 x FSUsos 1.06 = 11.77

NC     117 + 212 = 339/11.77 = 28.80

             FSU  28.14  27

             NC    28.80  30       

Number seem pretty close to me NC ave. 29 at home and FSU ave 29 for the year

 

Was this not the exact score?? I'd say go with this method. :)

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 20621
Posted: #510

That was the exact pts but I didn't ave the YPPT which I did later and it showed a 27-26 FSU win either way pretty darn close

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 791
Posted: #511
Where do you find the SOS on USA today?? I can't for the life of me find it..
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 166
Posted: #512
How about a teaser on this game???? Rutgers -5 Over 32.5?  Will the rain change this game? Any help, I would appreciate it.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 791
Posted: #513

Nevermind I found it. https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

 

Here it is for others that are looking

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 791
Posted: #514

Also I am not familiar with Statfox but here is a good site that maintains stats.

https://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-matchups

 

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 20621
Posted: #515
Quote Originally Posted by KaraMel:

How about a teaser on this game???? Rutgers -5 Over 32.5?  Will the rain change this game? Any help, I would appreciate it.

I Teased the Other way and bought a half +17 UN 45 just thought this was stronger but don't let me change you mind. Either way Good Luck

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 252
Posted: #516
For Rutgers vs army

I teased Rut -5 and under 45. Hopefully it pans out.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 166
Posted: #517
What about the rain??? Could it be a big factor? It says light rain!!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 2256
Posted: #518
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

Having a little fun with Excel, people?

This is the result on college football for tonight's game.

(I will be doing all college games later today and post the result for people who wanted the results. I suggest looking at the the predictions that differ at least +7 points from vegas line).

Rutgers 24
Army 13


Looking forward.........
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #519
I tease Army +17 over 32.5.  I don't think light rain with affect the score too much.  ( at least not to army since they rush the ball).
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 9
Posted: #520
Roughshod31, rkydkydoc and all the rest of you guys working this system are awesome. Thanks for all your hard work and info. on the picks.  Keep up the good work
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 1
Posted: #521
Use Internet Explorer if you are having paste problem in Excel.  FireFox creates problems when copy/paste table to Excel.  Not that you can't paste using FireFox, but you have to go through the paste special using Unicode Text and all hyperlink is lost.  If there are hyperlink in table that you need, then you will not loose them if you copy/paste from Internet Explorer.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 422
Posted: #522
Quote Originally Posted by rinconen:

igotthegoods, that Rutgers yppt is way off. StatFox has 12.00. And, I double checked on Yahoo and came up with 11.99. (I don't think any college team has a number that low!) Army yppt is off as well. I had 16.2. And, Army actually hase a stronger schedule. And is at home. So, I really have no idea how you came to those numbers.


this formula, in my opinion, is not supposed to predict yppt or how many yards or this and that. the only thing that this predicts is who covers the spread. in the system i use, it has rutgers covering the 20+. ignore the 8.9 yppt, its the score that matters
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #523

Roughshod31 System Plays 10/24

UAB           17

Marshall (-7.0)  31


Georgia Tech    27

Virginia (+5.5)   28


Illinois      14

Purdue (-11.0)   37


Indiana  (+5.0)   26

Northwestern       24


Maryland     24

Duke (-4.0)   42


Oklahoma St.     24

Baylor  (+9.5)    26


N. Illinois  (-11.0)   30

Miami OH               13


Kent St.          14

Ohio   (-10.0)    31


Boston College    21

Notre Dame  (-7.5)  35


Tennessee     10

Alabama  (-14.0)  31


Wake Forest     21

Navy (+1.5)        31


Texas A&M       20

Texas Tech (-22.5)    56


Idaho  (+15.5)       28

Nevada                 31


Louisville             13

Cincinnati  (-17.5)  42


Iowa   (+1.5)         23

Michigan St.         17


Fresno St.  (-24.0)    51

New Mexico St.       13


UNLV   (-1.0)     35

New Mexico     24

GL


 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 20621
Posted: #524
All those Army turnovers sure glad I bought that half a point to get my push. Congrats to the winners I know there were a few.
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 252
Posted: #525
Glad my under held. Was getting nervous, especially after they returned a punt for a touchdown in the first quarter.
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.