New YPPT Method

After this week is completed, I will compile all stats for ALL 120 Div-A teams ONLY.

I will exclude ALL games played against DIV-AA for each team.

This is the only reason I don't like system for college football. It produces "false" results because statfox counts all games played.

A team could average 400 yards on offense and score 33.0 ppg (12.12 YPPT), but when you removed games played against AA teams, that comes to 325 yards on offense and 24.5 ppg (13.3 YPPT)

Div-A team usually blow out AA teams, and completely skew their stats, and that's what I will avoid here.

I can have a formula in Excel that if a team has faced a team that is not one of 120 Div-A teams, DO NOT COUNT the stats, and leave it a blank. (It's like the game never happened).

Next weekend, we should have a better reading on college teams and is something worth looking.

You still need to handicap the game!

Pops...you really are a TEAM player.  I have been reading and then reading some more between all of you guys.  IT'S AWESOME.  Keep up the good work!   

We need guys like you guys!

Quote Originally Posted by hard8:

The score for Utah and Air Force
16-16

lol....And we have our first perfect prediction of the system. It needed overtime, just like the system said. Air Force already covers +9.

Thanks for everything here...

Looking at in a straight up pool...

according to this system...selections would be S.F..Arizona...Minn...Atl...Chicago...Buffalo..

Any input would be appreciated

Home Field??

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



The most accurate way, IMO, to calculate YPPT (Yards per point) is to calculate how teams gain yards vs TRUE scoring (and I mean, exclude interceptions return for TD, punt return for TD, block FG/Punt return for TD, kickoff return for TD, safeties, fumble return for TD)

Any scoring that is NOT when a team starts a drive to try to score.

For example,

In the game with Eagles at Panthers in Week 1, final score was Eagles 38 - Panthers 10.

Eagles gained a total of only 287 yards (185 passing + 102 rushing), yet it scored 38 points for an astonishing 7.55 YPPT.

That's not the true scoring, anyway.

Eagles scored 14 points off Carolina turnovers (and I don't mean, Carolina turned the ball over, and Eagles started to drive to endzone).

They scored with:

- Fumble return for TD
- Punt Return for TD 

So, their TRUE YPPT is 287 yards / 24 points = 11.96 YPPT

But this system looks really good.

Keep up the good work.

I use this same system (got from a book in '83 or '84 using the USFL) along with another system based on the all the teams strength of schedule along with my ratings that I adjust weekly. 

I saw the same flaw you mention.  So, if my strength of schedule system show 20-17 and the YPPT system shows, for example 31-14, I know that team won with turnovers, kick returns, etc. and maybe the other team lost because of them. That's why I went with Oakland over Philadelphia 2 weeks ago.  That's my Rule 13 play.  Hits about 65%.

wow

cheers guys

love the NE number!