according to my calcs i have DET RL, WAS 5 inning(very diff calcs then sn's since he said HOU RL), STL ML(kill zambrano in past so very high BR/RC for STL), PIT 5 inning( to my calc 50/50 chance and veyr high value)
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according to my calcs i have DET RL, WAS 5 inning(very diff calcs then sn's since he said HOU RL), STL ML(kill zambrano in past so very high BR/RC for STL), PIT 5 inning( to my calc 50/50 chance and veyr high value)
Hey SN, Other than Tom Tango's 'The Book', what else would you suggest for a good read on sabermetrics.
[/Quote
everything published by Bill James, and David Smyth... SN
I agree with SN. In addition, you will find the information at the following sights educational. The later being Tom Tango's. https://baseball1.com/content/category/6/33/83/ https://www.tangotiger.net/
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:
Hey SN, Other than Tom Tango's 'The Book', what else would you suggest for a good read on sabermetrics.
[/Quote
everything published by Bill James, and David Smyth... SN
I agree with SN. In addition, you will find the information at the following sights educational. The later being Tom Tango's. https://baseball1.com/content/category/6/33/83/ https://www.tangotiger.net/
SN, how did you manage to win 4 units yesterday? just a question, want to learn.
Thanks
The Astros+190 RL & Tigers -110 RL =16units / The rest is mathematics; answered repitisously through out the thread. If you have an interest in learning the PACsymbol I would recommend you study the thread, It's all their, documented for your convenience..... amateurs capp games, professionals capp units. best regards SN
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Quote Originally Posted by moneylog:
SN, how did you manage to win 4 units yesterday? just a question, want to learn.
Thanks
The Astros+190 RL & Tigers -110 RL =16units / The rest is mathematics; answered repitisously through out the thread. If you have an interest in learning the PACsymbol I would recommend you study the thread, It's all their, documented for your convenience..... amateurs capp games, professionals capp units. best regards SN
First thing, I would like to thank SN for the time and effort he puts into this thread. I am sort of a numbers guys and this fits right into my alley. Also, Blacken as well for his help.
Second, I have been using his methods for about 2 weeks now and have had great success. I have a different way of going about it...I prepare the lifetime stats against the Starting Pitcher for each hitter on the opposing team that he has ever faced. I wait until the starting lineup is posted on MLB.com 1 hour before game time - then select the starters to be used. I feel this is the most accurate - many players get days off, etc....so I like to know I am using the correct players in each lineup to get the BsR against each pitcher.
I also prepare a Pitcher BsR using the Starter for 6 innings, Closer for 1 inning, and then I average the bullpen (5 or 6 Pitchers usually) BsR and use it for 2 innings.
One of these BsR calcualtions will give me a lean on the game - Pythagorean formula tells me the value. I have had many of the same plays as SN, but also others that have had a good lean to them as well...and worked out quite well.
Just want to share what has been working for me. I didn't want to post plays in here I have had that are differerent, as this thread is SN's..
GL to all and please post if you have a variation of Sabermetrics methods that are working for you...3 long days until Baseball starts back up - time to study.
0
First thing, I would like to thank SN for the time and effort he puts into this thread. I am sort of a numbers guys and this fits right into my alley. Also, Blacken as well for his help.
Second, I have been using his methods for about 2 weeks now and have had great success. I have a different way of going about it...I prepare the lifetime stats against the Starting Pitcher for each hitter on the opposing team that he has ever faced. I wait until the starting lineup is posted on MLB.com 1 hour before game time - then select the starters to be used. I feel this is the most accurate - many players get days off, etc....so I like to know I am using the correct players in each lineup to get the BsR against each pitcher.
I also prepare a Pitcher BsR using the Starter for 6 innings, Closer for 1 inning, and then I average the bullpen (5 or 6 Pitchers usually) BsR and use it for 2 innings.
One of these BsR calcualtions will give me a lean on the game - Pythagorean formula tells me the value. I have had many of the same plays as SN, but also others that have had a good lean to them as well...and worked out quite well.
Just want to share what has been working for me. I didn't want to post plays in here I have had that are differerent, as this thread is SN's..
GL to all and please post if you have a variation of Sabermetrics methods that are working for you...3 long days until Baseball starts back up - time to study.
First thing, I would like to thank SN for the time and effort he puts into this thread. I am sort of a numbers guys and this fits right into my alley. Also, Blacken as well for his help.
Second, I have been using his methods for about 2 weeks now and have had great success. I have a different way of going about it...I prepare the lifetime stats against the Starting Pitcher for each hitter on the opposing team that he has ever faced. I wait until the starting lineup is posted on MLB.com 1 hour before game time - then select the starters to be used. I feel this is the most accurate - many players get days off, etc....so I like to know I am using the correct players in each lineup to get the BsR against each pitcher.
I also prepare a Pitcher BsR using the Starter for 6 innings, Closer for 1 inning, and then I average the bullpen (5 or 6 Pitchers usually) BsR and use it for 2 innings.
One of these BsR calcualtions will give me a lean on the game - Pythagorean formula tells me the value. I have had many of the same plays as SN, but also others that have had a good lean to them as well...and worked out quite well.
Just want to share what has been working for me. I didn't want to post plays in here I have had that are differerent, as this thread is SN's..
GL to all and please post if you have a variation of Sabermetrics methods that are working for you...3 long days until Baseball starts back up - time to study.
MME- Your application of BsR is quite similar to my own form, although I don't separate the closer from the bullpen. I do see this being a viable option and will work with it. In addition I would like to propose in idea for discussion: In the event there is insufficient data on pitcher vs batter (team). Calculate Pitcher BsR based on last 28 days ( 5 starts). A result revealing how a pitcher has performed recently. At this point the same proceedure would be done withe the starting offense and totaled. Then averaged with pitcher BsR from the first step. Use this result continuing with the remaining steps in the formula. BLKN
0
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
First thing, I would like to thank SN for the time and effort he puts into this thread. I am sort of a numbers guys and this fits right into my alley. Also, Blacken as well for his help.
Second, I have been using his methods for about 2 weeks now and have had great success. I have a different way of going about it...I prepare the lifetime stats against the Starting Pitcher for each hitter on the opposing team that he has ever faced. I wait until the starting lineup is posted on MLB.com 1 hour before game time - then select the starters to be used. I feel this is the most accurate - many players get days off, etc....so I like to know I am using the correct players in each lineup to get the BsR against each pitcher.
I also prepare a Pitcher BsR using the Starter for 6 innings, Closer for 1 inning, and then I average the bullpen (5 or 6 Pitchers usually) BsR and use it for 2 innings.
One of these BsR calcualtions will give me a lean on the game - Pythagorean formula tells me the value. I have had many of the same plays as SN, but also others that have had a good lean to them as well...and worked out quite well.
Just want to share what has been working for me. I didn't want to post plays in here I have had that are differerent, as this thread is SN's..
GL to all and please post if you have a variation of Sabermetrics methods that are working for you...3 long days until Baseball starts back up - time to study.
MME- Your application of BsR is quite similar to my own form, although I don't separate the closer from the bullpen. I do see this being a viable option and will work with it. In addition I would like to propose in idea for discussion: In the event there is insufficient data on pitcher vs batter (team). Calculate Pitcher BsR based on last 28 days ( 5 starts). A result revealing how a pitcher has performed recently. At this point the same proceedure would be done withe the starting offense and totaled. Then averaged with pitcher BsR from the first step. Use this result continuing with the remaining steps in the formula. BLKN
A lot of pitchers (and bullpens) have very different numbers at home than on the road. Click on the names of any of these pitchers, and a lot of times the H/A difference is not even close. https://www.statfox.com/mlb/mlbteam~teamid~TORONTO~season~2009.htm
I'm just wondering what would be the best way to factor that in.
0
A lot of pitchers (and bullpens) have very different numbers at home than on the road. Click on the names of any of these pitchers, and a lot of times the H/A difference is not even close. https://www.statfox.com/mlb/mlbteam~teamid~TORONTO~season~2009.htm
I'm just wondering what would be the best way to factor that in.
DH21 / An important stat that has to be addressed, and adjusted accordingly..Match-up/Situational would be the 'tool' applied to your form..Most pitching stats favor the home mound, with very few exceptions, as you have clearly pointed out..the stats have to be accepted in true form to get a correct 'read' from there it turns to the responsibility of the cappers form to iniciate the lean based on the batter vs Pitcher matchup, which then becomes team situational play. There's really no other course to shepard to, other than staying at level ground with BR/RC....SN
0
DH21 / An important stat that has to be addressed, and adjusted accordingly..Match-up/Situational would be the 'tool' applied to your form..Most pitching stats favor the home mound, with very few exceptions, as you have clearly pointed out..the stats have to be accepted in true form to get a correct 'read' from there it turns to the responsibility of the cappers form to iniciate the lean based on the batter vs Pitcher matchup, which then becomes team situational play. There's really no other course to shepard to, other than staying at level ground with BR/RC....SN
DH21 / take a look at these three games in particular, re-capp them, with applied formula's, knowing the outcome will bring more insight towards 'dog' procedure..and the adjustments that coincide to your 'form'...SN
July 2 09
Mariners+285/W vs Yankees
July 3 09
Mariners+105/W vs RedSox
July 4 09
Mariners+200/W vs RedSox
as the season progresses these examples become readily available, they adjust procedure application to BR/RC fine tuning a cappers form, and giving an accurate read on 'dog' play...SN
0
DH21 / take a look at these three games in particular, re-capp them, with applied formula's, knowing the outcome will bring more insight towards 'dog' procedure..and the adjustments that coincide to your 'form'...SN
July 2 09
Mariners+285/W vs Yankees
July 3 09
Mariners+105/W vs RedSox
July 4 09
Mariners+200/W vs RedSox
as the season progresses these examples become readily available, they adjust procedure application to BR/RC fine tuning a cappers form, and giving an accurate read on 'dog' play...SN
DH, if I cannot get a read on Batter vs Starting Pitcher BsR using lifetime stats (usually due to lack of data) then:
I use the Home or Away Pitching stats for the season for each team as outlined above - 6 innings for a starter, 1 for closer, then average the entire bullpen and use for 2 innings....working so far so good. Blacken has suggested using the last 5 starts, and averaging with the hitters BsR...Which is another angle to study as well....
0
DH, if I cannot get a read on Batter vs Starting Pitcher BsR using lifetime stats (usually due to lack of data) then:
I use the Home or Away Pitching stats for the season for each team as outlined above - 6 innings for a starter, 1 for closer, then average the entire bullpen and use for 2 innings....working so far so good. Blacken has suggested using the last 5 starts, and averaging with the hitters BsR...Which is another angle to study as well....
DH, if I cannot get a read on Batter vs Starting Pitcher BsR using lifetime stats (usually due to lack of data) then:
I use the Home or Away Pitching stats for the season for each team as outlined above - 6 innings for a starter, 1 for closer, then average the entire bullpen and use for 2 innings....working so far so good. Blacken has suggested using the last 5 starts, and averaging with the hitters BsR...Which is another angle to study as well....
Stats overwhelmingly back this assessment to be extremely accurate, and a reliable form to incorporate when iniciating a read on an alternative format..GOOD CONTRIBUTION
0
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
DH, if I cannot get a read on Batter vs Starting Pitcher BsR using lifetime stats (usually due to lack of data) then:
I use the Home or Away Pitching stats for the season for each team as outlined above - 6 innings for a starter, 1 for closer, then average the entire bullpen and use for 2 innings....working so far so good. Blacken has suggested using the last 5 starts, and averaging with the hitters BsR...Which is another angle to study as well....
Stats overwhelmingly back this assessment to be extremely accurate, and a reliable form to incorporate when iniciating a read on an alternative format..GOOD CONTRIBUTION
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