Posted:
#1251
Thanks guys! Much appreciated.
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MLB system releases...
Posted:
#1252
After completing the majority of homework on tomorrows games I've singled out three road dogs that I feel might be smart plays. My approach to finding them is quite simple and only includes math for pitcher ratings. First of all I checked the trends relating to the percentage of which is hitting what. And according to covers, Dogs overall are hitting at 782-536 @ 59.33%, and road dogs are at 561-384 for a similar 59.37%. I like those numbers, I've been keeping track of the dogs and faves that hit on all the games on a daily basis. this gives me an idea of what to look for the day after. I find that most of the time if there were more favorites, than dogs dogs are gonna roll the day after, and the same with overs and unders. This is just used as my set up and i find it to be quite helpful.. Then I look at pitching matchups that have lines that seem to be odd. Like for tomorrow, I noticed that a lot of the teams that are doing very well are at +110 (Phillies), Angels +115, and the mariners are at a whopping + 175, i anticipate the line would drop about 15 points +160 or maybe even +155 tomorrow. After figuring out the pitcher rating on each matchup I, draw the conclusion that is opened up as a dog despite their recent success on the road. I feel that there is good value in these. Picks even more after looking deeper into the stats, pitcher vs. batter, trends, and so on. My final stages of my routine include line watching, living here in vegas i notice typical trends in line movements, so once the line makes a move as predicted I then place a wager. If anyone feels my strategy is ridiculous, or can suggest a different approach for increased winning percentage please let me know. This is my first baseball season, and among all the sports, I've noticed mlb can be very profitable if done right. Also when you've got the right pick it's usually smooth sailing as the game goes on. There is the occasional nail biter, but not as dramatic as a basketball game where the fucking team won't shoot a basket becasue there's 21 ticks on the clock and being up 4 is satisfying enough even though the fuckin spread is -4.5. They can care less.
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Posted:
#1254
Quote Originally Posted by againstalloddz:
After completing the majority of homework on tomorrows games I've singled out three road dogs that I feel might be smart plays. My approach to finding them is quite simple and only includes math for pitcher ratings. First of all I checked the trends relating to the percentage of which is hitting what. And according to covers, Dogs overall are hitting at 782-536 @ 59.33%, and road dogs are at 561-384 for a similar 59.37%. I like those numbers, I've been keeping track of the dogs and faves that hit on all the games on a daily basis. this gives me an idea of what to look for the day after. I find that most of the time if there were more favorites, than dogs dogs are gonna roll the day after, and the same with overs and unders. This is just used as my set up and i find it to be quite helpful.. Then I look at pitching matchups that have lines that seem to be odd. Like for tomorrow, I noticed that a lot of the teams that are doing very well are at +110 (Phillies), Angels +115, and the mariners are at a whopping + 175, i anticipate the line would drop about 15 points +160 or maybe even +155 tomorrow. After figuring out the pitcher rating on each matchup I, draw the conclusion that is opened up as a dog despite their recent success on the road. I feel that there is good value in these. Picks even more after looking deeper into the stats, pitcher vs. batter, trends, and so on. My final stages of my routine include line watching, living here in vegas i notice typical trends in line movements, so once the line makes a move as predicted I then place a wager. If anyone feels my strategy is ridiculous, or can suggest a different approach for increased winning percentage please let me know. This is my first baseball season, and among all the sports, I've noticed mlb can be very profitable if done right. Also when you've got the right pick it's usually smooth sailing as the game goes on. There is the occasional nail biter, but not as dramatic as a basketball game where the fucking team won't shoot a basket becasue there's 21 ticks on the clock and being up 4 is satisfying enough even though the fuckin spread is -4.5. They can care less.
After completing the majority of homework on tomorrows games I've singled out three road dogs that I feel might be smart plays. My approach to finding them is quite simple and only includes math for pitcher ratings. First of all I checked the trends relating to the percentage of which is hitting what. And according to covers, Dogs overall are hitting at 782-536 @ 59.33%, and road dogs are at 561-384 for a similar 59.37%. I like those numbers, I've been keeping track of the dogs and faves that hit on all the games on a daily basis. this gives me an idea of what to look for the day after. I find that most of the time if there were more favorites, than dogs dogs are gonna roll the day after, and the same with overs and unders. This is just used as my set up and i find it to be quite helpful.. Then I look at pitching matchups that have lines that seem to be odd. Like for tomorrow, I noticed that a lot of the teams that are doing very well are at +110 (Phillies), Angels +115, and the mariners are at a whopping + 175, i anticipate the line would drop about 15 points +160 or maybe even +155 tomorrow. After figuring out the pitcher rating on each matchup I, draw the conclusion that is opened up as a dog despite their recent success on the road. I feel that there is good value in these. Picks even more after looking deeper into the stats, pitcher vs. batter, trends, and so on. My final stages of my routine include line watching, living here in vegas i notice typical trends in line movements, so once the line makes a move as predicted I then place a wager. If anyone feels my strategy is ridiculous, or can suggest a different approach for increased winning percentage please let me know. This is my first baseball season, and among all the sports, I've noticed mlb can be very profitable if done right. Also when you've got the right pick it's usually smooth sailing as the game goes on. There is the occasional nail biter, but not as dramatic as a basketball game where the fucking team won't shoot a basket becasue there's 21 ticks on the clock and being up 4 is satisfying enough even though the fuckin spread is -4.5. They can care less.
I don't understand where you received the information regarding your presented stats on 'dog' play! Surely not from Covers data, they do not even come close to 1,318 recorded 'dogs' for the 09' season, nor does vegasinsider.com ...What hat did you pull 59% dogs hitting ratio from? over the past 8 seasons(including 09') it stands EXACTLY at 44.8%..i have every game in my data filed under "dog play" I also downloaded the research done by "hrabri_pero" right here in System&Strategies that shows a year by year break-down, with excellent attached insight. His findings; 44.6% that was three weeks ago, the thread, and pero are still available for discussion...my intention is not to embarass, or refer to you as a liar, only to point out your stats as being extremely in-correct, maybe they where passed on to you from someone whom you felt reliable, but wasn't...The cappers who particapate in this thread are advanced professionals with years of experience under their belt, and are very successfull at what they do, as are the formula's they use. NOTHING here is based on opinion, angles, the law of averages, or luck..this is Sabermetrics connected to,and designed for MLB, which is connected to handicapping a wager, and producing a winning edge, with value advantage attached....i appreciate your commentary, but have know understanding as to your objective, for this is a BR/RC thread, open for discussion by cappers who's interest tilt in that direction, please take the simple advice of MeMyselfandEye, "read the thread from the start" study it, do some research, and come back, you'll be welcomed... if dedicated, and serious about making money..this is not a monopoly game.... best regards, SN
0
Posted:
#1257
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
I don't understand where you received the information regarding your presented stats on 'dog' play! Surely not from Covers data, they do not even come close to 1,318 recorded 'dogs' for the 09' season, nor does vegasinsider.com ...What hat did you pull 59% dogs hitting ratio from? over the past 8 seasons(including 09') it stands EXACTLY at 44.8%..i have every game in my data filed under "dog play" I also downloaded the research done by "hrabri_pero" right here in System&Strategies that shows a year by year break-down, with excellent attached insight. His findings; 44.6% that was three weeks ago, the thread, and pero are still available for discussion...my intention is not to embarass, or refer to you as a liar, only to point out your stats as being extremely in-correct, maybe they where passed on to you from someone whom you felt reliable, but wasn't...The cappers who particapate in this thread are advanced professionals with years of experience under their belt, and are very successfull at what they do, as are the formula's they use. NOTHING here is based on opinion, angles, the law of averages, or luck..this is Sabermetrics connected to,and designed for MLB, which is connected to handicapping a wager, and producing a winning edge, with value advantage attached....i appreciate your commentary, but have know understanding as to your objective, for this is a BR/RC thread, open for discussion by cappers who's interest tilt in that direction, please take the simple advice of MeMyselfandEye, "read the thread from the start" study it, do some research, and come back, you'll be welcomed... if dedicated, and serious about making money..this is not a monopoly game.... best regards, SN
0
Posted:
#1259
Afternoon gentlemen,
I've been following this thread for a awhile now and have read through its entirety twice now. I have already been tracking the purposed simplified PET (using SP home/away stats and team home/away runs per game) over the past week, with favorable results. I am setting up my own excel sheet to take the next step and start calculating BR and RC. I am using projected team starting lineups vs. lefties or righties. To start, I am calculating the 1st 5 innings to keep it simple. I am using the basic versions of both formulas until I can find a "pit vs. bat" site with more detailed data. I would really appreciate any advice on the following method I am beginning with.
For RC, I calculate each individual player's RC and then convert that number to RC/27. I then add all of the individual player RC/27's together and divide by the number of players I have data for. Finally I multiply by 5/9 to obtain a result for the 1st 5 innings.
BR is the one that I am a bit more unsure about. I calculate the team total BR. But I believe this number could be heavily skewed by the fact that some batter on the team may have 37 PA vs. a pitcher while another may have 3 PA. The player with a vastly greater number of opportunities will make this BR result unrealistic for a single game situation. The wiki link suggests that individual BR can be calculated by taking the difference of the team total BR and team total minus individual player BR. I would then purpose, to adjust that individual number to a BR/27, divide the summation of the BR/27's by the number of players, and multiply by 5/9.
Very curious to see how far from the door this approach may be. Thanks in advance for all your help and many thanks to all of the contributors, especially SN, who have shared their knowledge and enlightened me to the world of sabermetrics.
I've been following this thread for a awhile now and have read through its entirety twice now. I have already been tracking the purposed simplified PET (using SP home/away stats and team home/away runs per game) over the past week, with favorable results. I am setting up my own excel sheet to take the next step and start calculating BR and RC. I am using projected team starting lineups vs. lefties or righties. To start, I am calculating the 1st 5 innings to keep it simple. I am using the basic versions of both formulas until I can find a "pit vs. bat" site with more detailed data. I would really appreciate any advice on the following method I am beginning with.
For RC, I calculate each individual player's RC and then convert that number to RC/27. I then add all of the individual player RC/27's together and divide by the number of players I have data for. Finally I multiply by 5/9 to obtain a result for the 1st 5 innings.
BR is the one that I am a bit more unsure about. I calculate the team total BR. But I believe this number could be heavily skewed by the fact that some batter on the team may have 37 PA vs. a pitcher while another may have 3 PA. The player with a vastly greater number of opportunities will make this BR result unrealistic for a single game situation. The wiki link suggests that individual BR can be calculated by taking the difference of the team total BR and team total minus individual player BR. I would then purpose, to adjust that individual number to a BR/27, divide the summation of the BR/27's by the number of players, and multiply by 5/9.
Very curious to see how far from the door this approach may be. Thanks in advance for all your help and many thanks to all of the contributors, especially SN, who have shared their knowledge and enlightened me to the world of sabermetrics.
0
Posted:
#1266
OK, These are my calculations for the early games and initial thoughts....These are not meant for anything other than comparision/analysis.
SEA 5 Innings=1.192
CLE 5 Innings= 5.709
Maybe CLE RL +115 - worst bullpen in baseball and I hate giving runs on CLE
CHC 5 Innings=2.365
WAS 5 Innings=0.738
Maybe CHC 1st 5 -116 or Under 1st 5. Pitching BsR is almost equal 4.8 to 5 for full game.
MIL 5 Innings = 2.595
CIN 5 Innings = 1.367
When I run the pitching BsR, it gives a lean on CIN full game (6.520 vs 3.180) . so I'd say CIN RL +181 Matchbook
NYM 5 Innings =0.881
ATL 5 Innings = 1.842
Again, Pitching BsR gives a lean on ATL (8.529 vs4.491) , so I'd say ATL RL +116
PHI 1st 5 Innings =2.125
FLA1st 5 Innigs=1.432
Pitch BsR is PHI 4.89 to FLA 5.92 - NO Lean
SEA 5 Innings=1.192
CLE 5 Innings= 5.709
Maybe CLE RL +115 - worst bullpen in baseball and I hate giving runs on CLE
CHC 5 Innings=2.365
WAS 5 Innings=0.738
Maybe CHC 1st 5 -116 or Under 1st 5. Pitching BsR is almost equal 4.8 to 5 for full game.
MIL 5 Innings = 2.595
CIN 5 Innings = 1.367
When I run the pitching BsR, it gives a lean on CIN full game (6.520 vs 3.180) . so I'd say CIN RL +181 Matchbook
NYM 5 Innings =0.881
ATL 5 Innings = 1.842
Again, Pitching BsR gives a lean on ATL (8.529 vs4.491) , so I'd say ATL RL +116
PHI 1st 5 Innings =2.125
FLA1st 5 Innigs=1.432
Pitch BsR is PHI 4.89 to FLA 5.92 - NO Lean
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Posted:
#1272
OK, final numbers using tonight starting lineups as posted on MLB.com. Again for analysis and comparison.
1st 5 Innings - Picthing BSR Full Game
CHC 2.501 (6 of 9 Hitters) 5.016
WAS 3.890 (5 of 9 Hitters) 4.856
NYM 3.232 (8 OF 9 Hitters) 4.491
ATL 5.234 (9 of 9 Hitters) 8.428
SEA 3.340 (6 OF 9 Hitters) 4.308
CLE 5.743 (8 OF 9 Hitters) 4.883
MIL 4.135 (7 OF 9 Hitters) 3.180
CIN 2.833 (7 OF 9 Hitters) 6.520
PHI 3.182 (9 OF 9 Hitters) 4.891
FLA 3.215 (8 OF 9 Hitters) 5.925
So my leans from above would be CLE RL, ATL RL, CHC/WAS 1ST 5 INNINGS OVER 5.
1st 5 Innings - Picthing BSR Full Game
CHC 2.501 (6 of 9 Hitters) 5.016
WAS 3.890 (5 of 9 Hitters) 4.856
NYM 3.232 (8 OF 9 Hitters) 4.491
ATL 5.234 (9 of 9 Hitters) 8.428
SEA 3.340 (6 OF 9 Hitters) 4.308
CLE 5.743 (8 OF 9 Hitters) 4.883
MIL 4.135 (7 OF 9 Hitters) 3.180
CIN 2.833 (7 OF 9 Hitters) 6.520
PHI 3.182 (9 OF 9 Hitters) 4.891
FLA 3.215 (8 OF 9 Hitters) 5.925
So my leans from above would be CLE RL, ATL RL, CHC/WAS 1ST 5 INNINGS OVER 5.
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