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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

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    kreatture
    SUPEREAGLE43
    GMSI
    Leprechaun
    CInderellaStory
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    kreatture
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 2:42 PM ET #101

    Quote Originally Posted by GMSI:

    it's early but the cards dont look good... mid 3rd down 4-0



    Yeah I don't know what that incident with Carpenter was all about in the 3rd inning there.. but it really pissed me off. If I knew he was on his period today I would have laid off..

    They just said the Cards have gone 8 games now without a home run.. and one of the worst pitchers in the Majors has now thrown 22 straight shutout innings against St. Louis.

    I don't like their chances of coming back today.. oh well, that sucks. Tomorrow has 3 new series starting and Units will be increased on those, as we will get back these Units lost this week.

    Shit happens.

    Cheers 
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    Quote Originally Posted by GMSI:

    it's early but the cards dont look good... mid 3rd down 4-0



    Yeah I don't know what that incident with Carpenter was all about in the 3rd inning there.. but it really pissed me off. If I knew he was on his period today I would have laid off..

    They just said the Cards have gone 8 games now without a home run.. and one of the worst pitchers in the Majors has now thrown 22 straight shutout innings against St. Louis.

    I don't like their chances of coming back today.. oh well, that sucks. Tomorrow has 3 new series starting and Units will be increased on those, as we will get back these Units lost this week.

    Shit happens.

    Cheers 
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 8:17 PM ET #102

    Spreadsheets are updated with today's series loss of St. Louis. I feel everyone's pain as it seems the entire world lost with this series, no matter what the system was. Good news is the System Filter worked on the San Francisco series and we avoided a huge loss there.

    I don't think there is a logical filter which can be taken away from this loss. The Cards were just simply beat down. The sports world really has been upside down so far in 2010. First with the NCAA, currently with the NHL, and currently with MLB. I suppose the NBA is next? Does that mean it's curtains for Lebron and the Cavs tonight.. and the Phoenix Suns simply must win the Title now for this insanity to continue.. LoL

    We won't be losing any sleep over this one tonight.. rest up for a busy weekend.

    Tomorrow sees 3 new series getting underway. We lost this battle.. but the war is just beginning.

    Cheers 

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    Spreadsheets are updated with today's series loss of St. Louis. I feel everyone's pain as it seems the entire world lost with this series, no matter what the system was. Good news is the System Filter worked on the San Francisco series and we avoided a huge loss there.

    I don't think there is a logical filter which can be taken away from this loss. The Cards were just simply beat down. The sports world really has been upside down so far in 2010. First with the NCAA, currently with the NHL, and currently with MLB. I suppose the NBA is next? Does that mean it's curtains for Lebron and the Cavs tonight.. and the Phoenix Suns simply must win the Title now for this insanity to continue.. LoL

    We won't be losing any sleep over this one tonight.. rest up for a busy weekend.

    Tomorrow sees 3 new series getting underway. We lost this battle.. but the war is just beginning.

    Cheers 

     
    SUPEREAGLE43
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 11:42 PM ET #103

    StL pulled this same crap last year against the Brewers at home also.  Like you said K, the war is just beginning.  The Cards will be a money raker as the season progresses.  Good luck with the weekend!

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    StL pulled this same crap last year against the Brewers at home also.  Like you said K, the war is just beginning.  The Cards will be a money raker as the season progresses.  Good luck with the weekend!

     
    GMSI
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    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 1:21 AM ET #104

    loss definatly stings, but like I said in previous posts the last couple weeks have been strange...

    Updated series stats... (did not record 1st series of year for each team)

    Series starting 10/05/10 & 11/05/10

    14 series...5 NL HOME Teams swept...WOW...

    Arizona -120 for series
    Milwaukee -120 for series
    Pittsburgh +100 for series
    St Louis -350 for series
    San Francisco -180 for series

    Year to Date stats...

    148 series... 40 sweeps... 148/40= 1 in 3.7

    18 x Home sweeps (3 x 4G sweeps included)
    22 x Road sweeps
    10 x NL Home Sweeps
    12 x NL Road Sweeps
    10 x AL Home Sweeps
    8 x AL Road Sweeps
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    loss definatly stings, but like I said in previous posts the last couple weeks have been strange...

    Updated series stats... (did not record 1st series of year for each team)

    Series starting 10/05/10 & 11/05/10

    14 series...5 NL HOME Teams swept...WOW...

    Arizona -120 for series
    Milwaukee -120 for series
    Pittsburgh +100 for series
    St Louis -350 for series
    San Francisco -180 for series

    Year to Date stats...

    148 series... 40 sweeps... 148/40= 1 in 3.7

    18 x Home sweeps (3 x 4G sweeps included)
    22 x Road sweeps
    10 x NL Home Sweeps
    12 x NL Road Sweeps
    10 x AL Home Sweeps
    8 x AL Road Sweeps
     
    Leprechaun
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    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 3:39 PM ET #105

    Quote Originally Posted by GMSI:

    loss definatly stings, but like I said in previous posts the last couple weeks have been strange...

    Updated series stats... (did not record 1st series of year for each team)

    Series starting 10/05/10 & 11/05/10

    14 series...5 NL HOME Teams swept...WOW...

    Arizona -120 for series
    Milwaukee -120 for series
    Pittsburgh +100 for series
    St Louis -350 for series
    San Francisco -180 for series

    Year to Date stats...

    148 series... 40 sweeps... 148/40= 1 in 3.7

    18 x Home sweeps (3 x 4G sweeps included)
    22 x Road sweeps
    10 x NL Home Sweeps
    12 x NL Road Sweeps
    10 x AL Home Sweeps
    8 x AL Road Sweeps


    These numbers are a great tool.  We are actually not that far off average in terms of sweeps (in fact, we are behind the average)...it is only that road teams are a little ahead of where they should be.    They are at 51% when the mean is actually about 36%...so road teams are about 6 sweeps ahead of themselves.  That basically tells that home teams are performing poorly, and in the coming months, home teams will start doing the sweeping.  However, the average numbers of overall sweeps won't change too much.  I promise you'll see home teams start to dominate.  Like I said, the stats ALWAYS regress to the mean.  You can't fight it when there are this many games.  Here are numbers, starting from Day 1 of 2008 going through yesterday so you can see how things compare to where we are now:

    3 game series ends in sweep:  28.52%
    Percentage of 3 game sweeps that are done by the home team: 64%
    4 game series ends in sweep: 16.15%
    Percentage of 3 game sweeps that are done by the home team: 80.8%
    Home team sweeps 3: MLB- 18.5%,  AL-19.73%, NL-17.8%
    Road team sweeps 3: MLB-10.0%, AL-10.5%, NL-9.5%

    Leprechaun
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    Quote Originally Posted by GMSI:

    loss definatly stings, but like I said in previous posts the last couple weeks have been strange...

    Updated series stats... (did not record 1st series of year for each team)

    Series starting 10/05/10 & 11/05/10

    14 series...5 NL HOME Teams swept...WOW...

    Arizona -120 for series
    Milwaukee -120 for series
    Pittsburgh +100 for series
    St Louis -350 for series
    San Francisco -180 for series

    Year to Date stats...

    148 series... 40 sweeps... 148/40= 1 in 3.7

    18 x Home sweeps (3 x 4G sweeps included)
    22 x Road sweeps
    10 x NL Home Sweeps
    12 x NL Road Sweeps
    10 x AL Home Sweeps
    8 x AL Road Sweeps


    These numbers are a great tool.  We are actually not that far off average in terms of sweeps (in fact, we are behind the average)...it is only that road teams are a little ahead of where they should be.    They are at 51% when the mean is actually about 36%...so road teams are about 6 sweeps ahead of themselves.  That basically tells that home teams are performing poorly, and in the coming months, home teams will start doing the sweeping.  However, the average numbers of overall sweeps won't change too much.  I promise you'll see home teams start to dominate.  Like I said, the stats ALWAYS regress to the mean.  You can't fight it when there are this many games.  Here are numbers, starting from Day 1 of 2008 going through yesterday so you can see how things compare to where we are now:

    3 game series ends in sweep:  28.52%
    Percentage of 3 game sweeps that are done by the home team: 64%
    4 game series ends in sweep: 16.15%
    Percentage of 3 game sweeps that are done by the home team: 80.8%
    Home team sweeps 3: MLB- 18.5%,  AL-19.73%, NL-17.8%
    Road team sweeps 3: MLB-10.0%, AL-10.5%, NL-9.5%

    Leprechaun
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 3:40 PM ET #106

    We can easily manage if we will only take, each day, the burden appointed to it.  But the load will be too heavy for us if we carry yesterday's burden over again today, and then add the burden of the morrow before we are required to bear it.  ~John Newton, Author of "Amazing Grace"


    The most important thing to do this weekend is remind ourselves that discipline is the key. Coming off a System loss of St. Louis (and many, elsewhere, off a loss of the Giants, as well) of -21units, means we have 23 Units to recover (Martingale format only) which includes the 21 lost, plus the 2 we were supposed to win for the series.
    This does not mean we have to up the ante on every series until we get that back. We must remain selective and handicap these series accordingly. I trust in my ability to do that (Covers MLB contest, currently 349th, 95th Percentile).

    I have concerns in all of these new series this weekend, so take note of the spreadsheet comments and how many Units are being played.

    Meanwhile, of course there is that pesky Runline Blitz play with Colorado, as well. First time this season for a Game 5 there, hopefully it ends tonight. I like the game, for what it's worth.


    Remember, you can click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 14TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    COLORADO ROCKIES  -120          GAME 5


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    DETROIT TIGERS  -145          GAME 1 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL

    ATLANTA BRAVES -123          GAME 1 of 3
         -- Recovery Process, Play to win 3.25 units

    SAN DIEGO PADRES  -136          GAME 1 of 3
         -- Recovery Process, Play to win 2.5 units
     





    Continued Success 
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    We can easily manage if we will only take, each day, the burden appointed to it.  But the load will be too heavy for us if we carry yesterday's burden over again today, and then add the burden of the morrow before we are required to bear it.  ~John Newton, Author of "Amazing Grace"


    The most important thing to do this weekend is remind ourselves that discipline is the key. Coming off a System loss of St. Louis (and many, elsewhere, off a loss of the Giants, as well) of -21units, means we have 23 Units to recover (Martingale format only) which includes the 21 lost, plus the 2 we were supposed to win for the series.
    This does not mean we have to up the ante on every series until we get that back. We must remain selective and handicap these series accordingly. I trust in my ability to do that (Covers MLB contest, currently 349th, 95th Percentile).

    I have concerns in all of these new series this weekend, so take note of the spreadsheet comments and how many Units are being played.

    Meanwhile, of course there is that pesky Runline Blitz play with Colorado, as well. First time this season for a Game 5 there, hopefully it ends tonight. I like the game, for what it's worth.


    Remember, you can click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 14TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    COLORADO ROCKIES  -120          GAME 5


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    DETROIT TIGERS  -145          GAME 1 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL

    ATLANTA BRAVES -123          GAME 1 of 3
         -- Recovery Process, Play to win 3.25 units

    SAN DIEGO PADRES  -136          GAME 1 of 3
         -- Recovery Process, Play to win 2.5 units
     





    Continued Success 
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 6:56 PM ET #107

    Weekend is off to a good start with a little bonus money from Pittsburgh this afternoon, woo hoo! 

    At +187, how could you not play that in what should have been a pick 'em game?!

    I don't expect to sweep the board tonight.. but a couple of wins would be nice..

    Minnesota looks tasty tonight too at +158   


    Cheers!!!!
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    Weekend is off to a good start with a little bonus money from Pittsburgh this afternoon, woo hoo! 

    At +187, how could you not play that in what should have been a pick 'em game?!

    I don't expect to sweep the board tonight.. but a couple of wins would be nice..

    Minnesota looks tasty tonight too at +158   


    Cheers!!!!
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 7:24 PM ET #108

    Colorado has been canceled due to rain..  

    No Runline Blitz play for tonight.

    Tigers are off to a great start, as I expected  I didn''t like anything about this game or the rest of the weekend for them..  
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    Colorado has been canceled due to rain..  

    No Runline Blitz play for tonight.

    Tigers are off to a great start, as I expected  I didn''t like anything about this game or the rest of the weekend for them..  
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 15, 2010 - 1:15 PM ET #109

    Busy day, read the spreadsheets for game details.

    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.



    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 15TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    COLORADO ROCKIES  -115          GAME 5


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    DETROIT TIGERS  -105          GAME 2 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL

    SAN DIEGO PADRES  -155          GAME 2 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL
     





    Continued Success 
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    Busy day, read the spreadsheets for game details.

    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.



    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 15TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    COLORADO ROCKIES  -115          GAME 5


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    DETROIT TIGERS  -105          GAME 2 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL

    SAN DIEGO PADRES  -155          GAME 2 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL
     





    Continued Success 
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 15, 2010 - 4:41 PM ET #110

    All I can say is.. WHEW.

    Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart & Colorado 
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    All I can say is.. WHEW.

    Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart & Colorado 
     
    CInderellaStory
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    Posted: May. 15, 2010 - 5:07 PM ET #111

    Glad COL came through for you.  
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    Glad COL came through for you.  
     
    therizz
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    Posted: May. 15, 2010 - 7:44 PM ET #112

    Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

    All I can say is.. WHEW.

    Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart & Colorado 

    Damn that was close but a win is a win and this was a big one!

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    Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

    All I can say is.. WHEW.

    Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart & Colorado 

    Damn that was close but a win is a win and this was a big one!

     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 16, 2010 - 3:05 AM ET #113

    Was a great day with Colorado covering and Detroit coming back from 6-1 down, but San Diego lost again and I can't say I'm surprised. I thought the Dodgers would probably sweep them this weekend and it wasn't just because they are my team. They are just a much better overall team. I said before that San Diego started red-hot last year at home, as well, before plummeting back to earth in June. They are not that good of a team and it will happen again this year.

    They've opened as a small dog today, so the play once again will be on the RL. If anyone is playing them, you could also try the ML to cut down on the wager and hope for the best. Full write-up of my thoughts are on the spreadsheet. I will be really disappointed if they do not cover this game today.


    I haven't found a line yet on the Cubs RL. The Greek usually has it first, but even they don't have one as of right now. Write-up of my thoughts on this game are on the spreadsheet, as well. I know this is a big System Chase wager for many people today, so take what you will from my write-up. My breakdown of the game is only my opinion.




    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 16TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    CHICAGO CUBS            GAME 1


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    SAN DIEGO PADRES            GAME 3 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL
     





    Continued Success 
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    Was a great day with Colorado covering and Detroit coming back from 6-1 down, but San Diego lost again and I can't say I'm surprised. I thought the Dodgers would probably sweep them this weekend and it wasn't just because they are my team. They are just a much better overall team. I said before that San Diego started red-hot last year at home, as well, before plummeting back to earth in June. They are not that good of a team and it will happen again this year.

    They've opened as a small dog today, so the play once again will be on the RL. If anyone is playing them, you could also try the ML to cut down on the wager and hope for the best. Full write-up of my thoughts are on the spreadsheet. I will be really disappointed if they do not cover this game today.


    I haven't found a line yet on the Cubs RL. The Greek usually has it first, but even they don't have one as of right now. Write-up of my thoughts on this game are on the spreadsheet, as well. I know this is a big System Chase wager for many people today, so take what you will from my write-up. My breakdown of the game is only my opinion.




    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 16TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    CHICAGO CUBS            GAME 1


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    SAN DIEGO PADRES            GAME 3 of 3
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL
     





    Continued Success 
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 2:46 AM ET #114

    If I can manage the time, I would like to do weekly recaps of what happened, and my thoughts on the week past. Last season I did a monthly recap on the spreadsheet, and it helped me later on for when I went back to evaluate things.


    WEEKLY RECAP
    May 10th- May 16th


    RUNLINE BLITZ
    It was a pretty scary week here as loss after loss piled up. The week began on Game 1 and by Saturday we were faced with a rare Game 5 situation. The middle of the week saw the St. Louis Cardinals as heavy favorites 3 days in a row in their series with the Astros. Unfortunately, Houston pulled off the very improbable sweep as many were left confused by what had happened. It was a huge System loss for many people (including my own Top 7), but for us it was just games 2-4.
    The weekend brought new hope as Colorado sought to become our savior. After a rain-out on Friday, the skies cleared for an afternoon matinee with the Majors top pitcher on our side. As per the luck, he was faced by the Majors #2 ERA guy, yet somehow this was still the biggest favorite of the day. Vegas just loves to screw with us sometimes.. Our Ace was brilliant, as expected, but so was theirs matching him almost pitch for pitch. When hope seemed to be lost with just a 1-run lead late, the Rockies heart of the order produced a much needed 3-spot in their final chance to save us. Relief, it was, as we finally gained our +1 Unit.
    The week ended just as it started - with a loss. The Chicago Cubs won the game, as I predicted they would, but it was not the blowout I thought it might be. A 1-run win leaves us with a Game 2 on the horizon as a new week begins tomorrow..

    Weekly Record:  1-5
    Units:  +0.05


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM
    The week began with the surging New York Mets against an under-the-radar Washington squad. We knew it was going to be a tough series, but the Mets secured the win in game 2 for us.
    Tuesday saw 2 new series begin, both Double Unit Plays. The Minnesota series was only 2 games, but the match-up looked good. Unfortunately, our Game 1 curse continued as we hit the wall once again. Final series games are always a little more stressful, and this one was no different. They fell behind by 2 right off the bat, but managed to put together a couple of solid early innings themselves to grab a 3-2 lead. The pitching was dominant from that point as this ended as the final score. The other series on Tuesday was our eventual loss this week, St. Louis. This looked like a huge mismatch on paper for at least 2 of the 3 games, and rightly so. The Cards were rolling along nicely and Houston was considered by many to be the worst team in the Majors. Game 1 was going as planned until the Cards imploded in the 7th inning with a 2-0 lead. By the time it was all said and done, the Astros had scored 4 times on their way to a 6-3 victory. Game 2 had us a bit more cautious as we knew Wandy Rodriguez had the potential to shine any time he's on the hill. Houston built an early 6-1 lead and eventually hung on for a 9-6 win. Game 3 was a shocker as Houston once again put up 4 early off Ace Chris Carpenter. St. Louis surprisingly couldn't get anything going on offense and fell 4-1 to complete the Houston sweep. We weren't the only System which was hit hard with this loss, so there was not even a filter elsewhere which could possibly be learned for the future. The fact this was a Double Unit Play made it all the tougher to swallow. Total loss was -21.41 Units.
    This left us to regroup for our weekend series as 3 more kicked off. Thoughts were these series were going to be tough, so we didn't go after our Unit Recovery too aggressively. We upped the Atlanta series for 3.25 Units and finally managed to win a Game 1 for the first time this season. The Detroit series was played standard and they came back from a 6-1 deficit in Game 2 for our win there. We took a shot to win 2.5 Units in Game 1 of the San Diego series as it was felt this was their best shot to win any of the weekend's games. They didn't, and we became really worried after this. We scaled back to win just the standard unit for Game 2 and were able to have some insurance as a Dog Play. Still no dice. Not liking our chances for Game 3, we caught a break with arguably the Majors MVP so far, Andre Ethier, breaking his pinky and having to sit this game out, too. Once again tho, we were able to get the insurance with the Dog Play and this time it saved our lives. Wade Leblanc tossed a no-hitter into the 6th but that wasn't even good enough to beat these Dodgers, as Chad Billingsley threw smoke all day on his way to a 1-0 win. Our Dog Filter saved a series loss last season with Tampa Bay, and once again saves us from our 2nd loss in less than a week.
    We also had 3 more series this week which were filtered completely out of play. The first and third, against a Top 7 Road Team, won on Game 1. The second, against a Division Leader, saved our skin again. San Francisco was swept under the rug by San Diego 3 straight.
    This means that thanks to our Filters, 2 series losses were avoided in the same week. One which earned us an additional win, and one which prevented a huge loss.
    Even tho this was a losing week, it could have been so much worse, and that is what we will remember as we move forward. The schedule makers are throwing nothing but curveballs in the week ahead as we'll see all 2-game series and some Interleague play next weekend.
    If we can get through the rocky path ahead next week, we'll be feeling much better about the rest of this season..

    Weekly Record:  5-1 (series)  5-8 (games)
    Units: -13.16





    Continued Success 
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    If I can manage the time, I would like to do weekly recaps of what happened, and my thoughts on the week past. Last season I did a monthly recap on the spreadsheet, and it helped me later on for when I went back to evaluate things.


    WEEKLY RECAP
    May 10th- May 16th


    RUNLINE BLITZ
    It was a pretty scary week here as loss after loss piled up. The week began on Game 1 and by Saturday we were faced with a rare Game 5 situation. The middle of the week saw the St. Louis Cardinals as heavy favorites 3 days in a row in their series with the Astros. Unfortunately, Houston pulled off the very improbable sweep as many were left confused by what had happened. It was a huge System loss for many people (including my own Top 7), but for us it was just games 2-4.
    The weekend brought new hope as Colorado sought to become our savior. After a rain-out on Friday, the skies cleared for an afternoon matinee with the Majors top pitcher on our side. As per the luck, he was faced by the Majors #2 ERA guy, yet somehow this was still the biggest favorite of the day. Vegas just loves to screw with us sometimes.. Our Ace was brilliant, as expected, but so was theirs matching him almost pitch for pitch. When hope seemed to be lost with just a 1-run lead late, the Rockies heart of the order produced a much needed 3-spot in their final chance to save us. Relief, it was, as we finally gained our +1 Unit.
    The week ended just as it started - with a loss. The Chicago Cubs won the game, as I predicted they would, but it was not the blowout I thought it might be. A 1-run win leaves us with a Game 2 on the horizon as a new week begins tomorrow..

    Weekly Record:  1-5
    Units:  +0.05


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM
    The week began with the surging New York Mets against an under-the-radar Washington squad. We knew it was going to be a tough series, but the Mets secured the win in game 2 for us.
    Tuesday saw 2 new series begin, both Double Unit Plays. The Minnesota series was only 2 games, but the match-up looked good. Unfortunately, our Game 1 curse continued as we hit the wall once again. Final series games are always a little more stressful, and this one was no different. They fell behind by 2 right off the bat, but managed to put together a couple of solid early innings themselves to grab a 3-2 lead. The pitching was dominant from that point as this ended as the final score. The other series on Tuesday was our eventual loss this week, St. Louis. This looked like a huge mismatch on paper for at least 2 of the 3 games, and rightly so. The Cards were rolling along nicely and Houston was considered by many to be the worst team in the Majors. Game 1 was going as planned until the Cards imploded in the 7th inning with a 2-0 lead. By the time it was all said and done, the Astros had scored 4 times on their way to a 6-3 victory. Game 2 had us a bit more cautious as we knew Wandy Rodriguez had the potential to shine any time he's on the hill. Houston built an early 6-1 lead and eventually hung on for a 9-6 win. Game 3 was a shocker as Houston once again put up 4 early off Ace Chris Carpenter. St. Louis surprisingly couldn't get anything going on offense and fell 4-1 to complete the Houston sweep. We weren't the only System which was hit hard with this loss, so there was not even a filter elsewhere which could possibly be learned for the future. The fact this was a Double Unit Play made it all the tougher to swallow. Total loss was -21.41 Units.
    This left us to regroup for our weekend series as 3 more kicked off. Thoughts were these series were going to be tough, so we didn't go after our Unit Recovery too aggressively. We upped the Atlanta series for 3.25 Units and finally managed to win a Game 1 for the first time this season. The Detroit series was played standard and they came back from a 6-1 deficit in Game 2 for our win there. We took a shot to win 2.5 Units in Game 1 of the San Diego series as it was felt this was their best shot to win any of the weekend's games. They didn't, and we became really worried after this. We scaled back to win just the standard unit for Game 2 and were able to have some insurance as a Dog Play. Still no dice. Not liking our chances for Game 3, we caught a break with arguably the Majors MVP so far, Andre Ethier, breaking his pinky and having to sit this game out, too. Once again tho, we were able to get the insurance with the Dog Play and this time it saved our lives. Wade Leblanc tossed a no-hitter into the 6th but that wasn't even good enough to beat these Dodgers, as Chad Billingsley threw smoke all day on his way to a 1-0 win. Our Dog Filter saved a series loss last season with Tampa Bay, and once again saves us from our 2nd loss in less than a week.
    We also had 3 more series this week which were filtered completely out of play. The first and third, against a Top 7 Road Team, won on Game 1. The second, against a Division Leader, saved our skin again. San Francisco was swept under the rug by San Diego 3 straight.
    This means that thanks to our Filters, 2 series losses were avoided in the same week. One which earned us an additional win, and one which prevented a huge loss.
    Even tho this was a losing week, it could have been so much worse, and that is what we will remember as we move forward. The schedule makers are throwing nothing but curveballs in the week ahead as we'll see all 2-game series and some Interleague play next weekend.
    If we can get through the rocky path ahead next week, we'll be feeling much better about the rest of this season..

    Weekly Record:  5-1 (series)  5-8 (games)
    Units: -13.16





    Continued Success 
     
    kreatture
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 3:22 AM ET #115

    The Top 7 Home Team System will really be put to the test this week. Altho 2-game series are usually filtered out, we have an odd schedule this week as every team will play back-to-back 2 gamers. Oddly enough, 3 of our Top 7 Home Teams square off against 3 of the worst Road Teams in the Majors. We've studied these series, and will play Game 1 aggressively in some spots and back down if they go to a 2nd game.
    Last season produced only three 2-game series which qualified for play (2 were in September, two Game 1 wins & one Game 2 win), so this will be a big test of the System's Filter as there's all ready been 1 of these plays this season, and 3 more qualify for Monday.
    See the spreadsheet for how we are attacking these series.




    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 17TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES  -105          GAME 2


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    DETROIT TIGERS  -138          GAME 1 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- see spreadsheet for martingale unit adjustment

    ATLANTA BRAVES  -137          GAME 1 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- see spreadsheet for martingale unit adjustment

    OAKLAND A'S  -138          GAME 1 of 2
        
    -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- see spreadsheet for martingale unit adjustment

     





    Continued Success 
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    The Top 7 Home Team System will really be put to the test this week. Altho 2-game series are usually filtered out, we have an odd schedule this week as every team will play back-to-back 2 gamers. Oddly enough, 3 of our Top 7 Home Teams square off against 3 of the worst Road Teams in the Majors. We've studied these series, and will play Game 1 aggressively in some spots and back down if they go to a 2nd game.
    Last season produced only three 2-game series which qualified for play (2 were in September, two Game 1 wins & one Game 2 win), so this will be a big test of the System's Filter as there's all ready been 1 of these plays this season, and 3 more qualify for Monday.
    See the spreadsheet for how we are attacking these series.




    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 17TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES  -105          GAME 2


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    DETROIT TIGERS  -138          GAME 1 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- see spreadsheet for martingale unit adjustment

    ATLANTA BRAVES  -137          GAME 1 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- see spreadsheet for martingale unit adjustment

    OAKLAND A'S  -138          GAME 1 of 2
        
    -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- see spreadsheet for martingale unit adjustment

     





    Continued Success 
     
    Budman717
    Budman717
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 1:32 PM ET #116

    K;

    I have no research to back this up, but really, can you think of 1 single week when you've seen so many home teams get swept?  I certainly can't, and the probability of that continuing is too small to worry about.  I feel like I've wethered the storm, and still have a bankroll left to mount the recovery.

    Good luck to us all tonight.

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    K;

    I have no research to back this up, but really, can you think of 1 single week when you've seen so many home teams get swept?  I certainly can't, and the probability of that continuing is too small to worry about.  I feel like I've wethered the storm, and still have a bankroll left to mount the recovery.

    Good luck to us all tonight.

     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 1:53 PM ET #117

    Quote Originally Posted by Budman717:

    K;

    I have no research to back this up, but really, can you think of 1 single week when you've seen so many home teams get swept?  I certainly can't, and the probability of that continuing is too small to worry about.  I feel like I've wethered the storm, and still have a bankroll left to mount the recovery.

    Good luck to us all tonight.



    I agree, this season has been an abnormality all ready, but last week was particularly rough for many people. Fortunately, we have established good System Filters here and walked away with just the single series loss last week, instead of 3, 4, or even 5 as was the case with some.
    To be only down -10Units on the Top 7 is really very fortunate, considering the 1-7 Game 1 record. This trend will revert to the norm, which is around 60%. Tonight, would be a good time to start..


    There is news today that PSIC has developed a new version of the Labourchere. I will be keeping my eye on this to see how improved this is over the current version.


    Cheers 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Budman717:

    K;

    I have no research to back this up, but really, can you think of 1 single week when you've seen so many home teams get swept?  I certainly can't, and the probability of that continuing is too small to worry about.  I feel like I've wethered the storm, and still have a bankroll left to mount the recovery.

    Good luck to us all tonight.



    I agree, this season has been an abnormality all ready, but last week was particularly rough for many people. Fortunately, we have established good System Filters here and walked away with just the single series loss last week, instead of 3, 4, or even 5 as was the case with some.
    To be only down -10Units on the Top 7 is really very fortunate, considering the 1-7 Game 1 record. This trend will revert to the norm, which is around 60%. Tonight, would be a good time to start..


    There is news today that PSIC has developed a new version of the Labourchere. I will be keeping my eye on this to see how improved this is over the current version.


    Cheers 
     
    jv040
    jv040
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 4:08 PM ET #118

    There is news today that PSIC has developed a new version of the Labourchere. I will be keeping my eye on this to see how improved this is over the current version.

     

    yes  Tod is experminting with jagged labby line. 2 line looks like this.

    10-10-10-10

    15-15-15-15

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    There is news today that PSIC has developed a new version of the Labourchere. I will be keeping my eye on this to see how improved this is over the current version.

     

    yes  Tod is experminting with jagged labby line. 2 line looks like this.

    10-10-10-10

    15-15-15-15

     
    nolemonasses
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 6:29 PM ET #119

    GL tonight. Im on board for tonights card.
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    GL tonight. Im on board for tonights card.
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 17, 2010 - 7:06 PM ET #120

    Detroit Tigers game tonight has been postponed due to rain. This series will now be off the board, unless they play a double header tomorrow.
    It doesn't look like they will be.
    __________________________________


    Thanks nolemonasses.. best of luck to all of us tonight
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    Detroit Tigers game tonight has been postponed due to rain. This series will now be off the board, unless they play a double header tomorrow.
    It doesn't look like they will be.
    __________________________________


    Thanks nolemonasses.. best of luck to all of us tonight
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 18, 2010 - 1:31 AM ET #121

    Game 1 miseries continue as Atlanta can't get it done. I had reservations about this game all evening but decided to go ahead with it anyway. Gonna be a tough 2nd game tomorrow against Johan.

    As wrong as I was about Mike Pelfrey finally bottoming out, I was just as right about this being the night Oakland would pile up some runs. A nice Game 1 win there as my strongest play of the night. Philadelphia started off a winning night for us with maybe the easiest victory we've had all season so far.

    I wanted to post this video, for anyone who happened to miss it tonight. This is Florida's "Face of the Franchise", Hanley Ramirez, as he casually runs back for a pop-up, then boots it all the way to the corner and casually jogs after it. Two runs scored, including the eventual game winner, and the batter ended up on 3rd.. on a pop-up.
    This kid has amazing talent and is still too young to have this Manny Ramirez "I don't care" attitude. Great job by Fredi Gonzalez to send this brat to the showers after the inning. I hope the team suspends him without pay.
    Oh, his replacement, Brian Barden, came in and played on a sprained ankle the rest of the game.. I guess he really wants to be there.
    Hanley "I'm too good to have to hustle on every play" Ramirez


    Cheers 
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    Game 1 miseries continue as Atlanta can't get it done. I had reservations about this game all evening but decided to go ahead with it anyway. Gonna be a tough 2nd game tomorrow against Johan.

    As wrong as I was about Mike Pelfrey finally bottoming out, I was just as right about this being the night Oakland would pile up some runs. A nice Game 1 win there as my strongest play of the night. Philadelphia started off a winning night for us with maybe the easiest victory we've had all season so far.

    I wanted to post this video, for anyone who happened to miss it tonight. This is Florida's "Face of the Franchise", Hanley Ramirez, as he casually runs back for a pop-up, then boots it all the way to the corner and casually jogs after it. Two runs scored, including the eventual game winner, and the batter ended up on 3rd.. on a pop-up.
    This kid has amazing talent and is still too young to have this Manny Ramirez "I don't care" attitude. Great job by Fredi Gonzalez to send this brat to the showers after the inning. I hope the team suspends him without pay.
    Oh, his replacement, Brian Barden, came in and played on a sprained ankle the rest of the game.. I guess he really wants to be there.
    Hanley "I'm too good to have to hustle on every play" Ramirez


    Cheers 
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 18, 2010 - 2:29 AM ET #122

    Posting these now, since I will likely be gone all of tomorrow. Going to see Robin Hood tomorrow night.. can't wait, been waiting for this one for awhile!
    Hoping to see some good news with Atlanta when I return home.




    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 18TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES  -140          GAME 1


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    ATLANTA BRAVES  -165          GAME 2 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL

     





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    Posting these now, since I will likely be gone all of tomorrow. Going to see Robin Hood tomorrow night.. can't wait, been waiting for this one for awhile!
    Hoping to see some good news with Atlanta when I return home.




    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 18TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES  -140          GAME 1


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    ATLANTA BRAVES  -165          GAME 2 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team
         -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL

     





    Continued Success 
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 18, 2010 - 10:00 PM ET #123

    GIANT FIST PUMP!! 


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    GIANT FIST PUMP!! 


     
    therizz
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    Posted: May. 18, 2010 - 11:38 PM ET #124

    Nice hit tonight Kreatture
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    Nice hit tonight Kreatture
     
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 19, 2010 - 5:19 PM ET #125

    No time for anything today.. Texas is the only official play. See spreadsheet.


    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 19TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  +135          GAME 2


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    TEXAS RANGERS  -160          GAME 1 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team

     





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    No time for anything today.. Texas is the only official play. See spreadsheet.


    Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.

    KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 19TH, 2010


    RUNLINE BLITZ

    ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  +135          GAME 2


    TOP 7 HOME TEAM

    TEXAS RANGERS  -160          GAME 1 of 2
         -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs bot 7 road team

     





    Continued Success 
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