Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

I personnaly used a MM method a friend created, it works fine but does have a couple kinks. Mainly having multiple plays at the same time. It was mostly designed to be played with the intentions of 1 play a day for 6 game chases.

I crunched some numbers late last night, and came across a couple different scenarios. One them that I like is the following:

1- Martingale Game 1 loss onto Game 2 playing for a 1unit of profit as normal.

2- If game 2 wins, you are +1unit. If game 2 losses, you take the loss of the 2 games and add it into loss recovery mode.

The loss recovery mode would be to make back the loss on the martingaling of game 1 & 2 over the next 6 chase system series. Bet game 3 of the chase to make 1 unit as you would do if it was a game 1.

Let's take an example of a high juice favorite last week. Baltimore @ Minnesota. Baltimore won games 1&2 but lost games 3&4.

G1: Minny -200.... 200/100 LOSS

G2: Minny -240... 720/300 LOSS

G3: Minny -175... 175/100 WIN... +1unit

Loss Recovery ( xLR ) comes into effect... so you would take the 920 which translates into 9.2units and divide over your next 6 new series.

New Series: To Win:+6.00u xLR: +9.20u New series: 2.53u each

The only drawbacks I see on this method of playing is the eventual multiple game 3's in sequence which would pretty much make the numbers a little out of whack on the new starting series.

But then again if we are going to game 3's often it would be most probably mean a loss overall in a 3game martingale chase.

Feedback is greatly welcome...

GMSI

 

Forgot to mention, game 3 play of 1unit could be more... Would be nice to capitalize more on a game 3 win, but also I am pretty certain most of us would not want to risk 20+units on a game 3 in general. As per the example above, the game 3 play on a basic martingale MM would have been: 17.85u to win 1u.

Yes it did win, but it won't always. Have that in mind, losses will happen with ANY system.

The method above would be best played on a chase system that takes a couple losses a year and generates a handfull of game 3 plays in general.

Any system that would take 1-2+ losses in a year would perform better playing the way above than a basic martingale and would create quicker returns than a labourchere method IMO.

GMSI

Intersting stuff GMSI.

I still like the modifed Lab to split out the losses over 2 lines to avoid elevated levels of Mrtingale in games 2 and 3, or in what you describe above. That is just me personally.

That's great and all, but not a good realistic example for my particular Systems here. In no instance will we ever play a game with odds greater than -200. Once a line hits -200 it instantly becomes a play on the runline. You can quicker get yourself into trouble if you continually lay over -200 on games. Personally, it's just a good investment rule to never play games with odds like that, unless you are doing a 2 or 3 game high juice parley to get around even money.

Also, a straight Martingale is an absolute horrible way to manage your bankroll. People say that is one reason why they like the Labourchere better, because you can increase your Unit size as you clear lines throughout the season. This is why I play a Modified Martingale, so Unit sizes can also be increased throughout the season.
If a series loss does occur, I also enter a Recovery Process to get those lost Units back over the next few series.

With your example above.. first you're only losing 8.2 Units, not 9.2 since you did win 1 Unit on the 3rd game.
If you take those -200 games and apply the filters like in the Top 7 Home Team System, the games would then look like this:

G1: Minny -200 becomes +100RL.... 200/100 becomes 100/100  LOSS

G2: Minny -240 becomes -120RL... 720/300 becomes 240/200  LOSS

G3: Minny -175... 175/100 WIN... +1unit

Your total loss then is only 3.4units (loss) - 1unit (win) = -2.4units

This is much easier to add to the next few series than an 8 or 9unit loss. Also, if you did play straight up on that 3rd game, it would be 770/440.. if it did happen to lose, your total lose would then only be 11.1units (1+2.4+7.7).
The chances of winning that Game 3 to win it all back is worth the risk then, since it would only be about a 3unit difference if it did lose (8.2 vs 11.1).. but a 12unit difference if it wins (+1 vs -11.1).

If you play poker, you can relate it to 'pot odds'.

Cheers 

This will be the 1st day of the season where we see multiple action on some big games. Two of the new plays are Double Unit Plays. These plays were absolute money on Game 1's last season, but we all ready have one Game 1 loss this year with Minnesota. Hopefully skill and luck are on our side tonight.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 11TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  +105          GAME 2


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

NEW YORK METS  -135          GAME 2 of 3    

MINNESOTA TWINS  -160          GAME 1 of 2
     -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  +105          GAME 1 of 3
     -- Juice Alert, play -1.5rl
     -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team




Continued Success 

Much Appreciated yur TIME and all hard work  !

        GL  

how many games do you chase the runline blitz system?

Where do you get a +105 RL on STL?  I've watched it since last night @ -115 because it was one of the games I was keen on.

When the line opened at Intertops Sportsbook at 3am EST last night it was -215 ML and +105 RL.  It is currently at -240 and -115.

By reading your thread, I know you have multiple Sportsbook Accounts. You should have found one around that time last night around even money at the very worst, when the ML was as low as -210 some places (like 5Dimes).

Cheers 

I definitely missed it. Good job. There's plenty more to play though. It's a long year.

my charts are extremely hott, check my thread, six straight high RTR wins in a row, no one else makes the plays i make, check my record.

Shitty nite. Although the Mets game turned out to be a pleasant surprise.

Panama, we know where your thread is.  Let's try to stay on this thread's topic.

It would be nice to start hitting some Game 1's! They usually hit over 60%, but are 0-4 to start this young season. A couple of big Game 2's going today; would be a great day to have a sweep on our side!




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 12TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  +120          GAME 3


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

MINNESOTA TWINS  -130          GAME 2 of 2
     -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  -172          GAME 2 of 3
     -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team




Continued Success 

You'll get your turnaround. I hope it starts today. I've been off your system the last 2 days due to my sweep chases starting Monday and Tuesday. I said I would keep my number of wagers to a minimum, and i did so far.

I wanna jump in now that i missed some of the game 1 and to losses of series that u are currently on, but I don't want to get burned. Plus I don't want to jinx you (not that I really believe that, but it when it seems too easy, i tend to get buried).

GL dude.

Thanks Nole.

Fortunately, Game 2's have been good so far. White Sox played pretty good, but Twins get the W.. and that's all that matters.

It was a 2-game series, but the filters said to play it. Big Double Unit win.

I'm nervous about the Cardinals game tonight, but that's a good thing. It's when I'm not nervous that I really get worried.. if that makes sense 


Good Luck on your sweep chases.

Cheers 

Let's all meet at the window tonight!

Well only Minnesota could get it done yesterday, but that was the only one which had to win. Today, the only play is St. Louis.. and it also has to win. Forecast calls for Isolated Thunder Showers, so a RunLine play is risky, but I'm not laying that much juice on a Game 3. If the game ends early and the RL wager becomes void, we'll have to just accept the 2-game loss to that point.

May the Gods smile fortune upon us.. and aim those thunderbolts in the area of the Houston dugout..




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 13TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  -120          GAME 4


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  -120          GAME 3 of 3
     -- Double Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team




Three new series start on Friday. Spreadsheet is all ready updated.


Continued Success 

Forgot to note, the Juice Alert for St. Louis on the Top 7 Home Team.. play is on the -1.5 RunLine, which I know you all knew anyway. 

Cheers 

gluck kreat,

As i stated previously this year has been strange so far

GMSI

Well,

So far the season started off great the first 2 weeks. I decided to be aggressive and it paid off. After that, took a few losses and I am slightly in the negative for the year in general. I have drastically cut my units by 80% approx for the time being.

GMSI

Damn, Stl really sucked the last two games.

it's early but the cards dont look good... mid 3rd down 4-0