Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

Another one clear with Colorado easily handling LA. Just the Tigers left and we have 2 chances if needed. Will wait until game time to lock this one in, I expect the public will jump all over fan favorite Dallas Braden and fade hated Max Scherzer. Hopefully Braden isn't 100% with that sprained ankle and serves up some taters.
Red Sox are the top favorite, opening at -300 across the board.. Yankees opened just under at -290 most places.

Cheers 

















Continued Success 

 

Kreature, I think you mean May 30.   BOL today

Ah, crap.. and I almost made it a whole month without forgetting to change the date!! HaHa

Looks like an excellent card today.. I have all kinds of side action going today, including..

St. Louis -115
Arizona -104
Bal/Tor UNDER 8
Was/SD UNDER 7

Also thinking about Florida and Milwaukee..

Hopefully this is just an incredible day and everything works out.

Still psyched from last night's UFC.. RASHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED!!!!

2 minutes til 1st pitch.. throw me a cold one!!!

Cheers 

Kreatture...Great work on the voo doo!  I didn't know you had Creole roots!

Having a monster day thanks to Detroit, the Yanks, and the Red Sox!  I had a huge parlay on all three Runlines!  Good times.  Already 2 home team sweeps in the books for the weekend.  Too bad Cinci blew it late...my only blemish on the day.  The next cold one is in your honor!

Leprechaun

Thanks Lep, was a great day. Nice hit with the parley.

Was a fantastic week finishing +22.98 Units. Couldn't be happier.

Best of luck this week to you, hopefully I won't need to create some more of that VooDoo..


Cheers 

Weekly Recap will have to wait.. On my way out for the day. One new Top 7 play today, and 1 new play tomorrow. Spreadsheets are fully up-to-date.

Cheers


















Continued Success 

Let's get them today Kreat 

Both Systems are purring like a happy kitten now. Let's hope Zito continues his career mastery of Colorado.









NEW YORK YANKEES  -113          GAME 1 of 3
     -- Double Unit Play (Top 7 vs. Bot 7)
     -- Juice Alert, Play -1.5 RL








Continued Success 

Tough loss with the Giants last night. Zito was solid, as expected, but the offense just couldn't muster anything late in the game. For what it's worth, I do like the Giants tonight. I don't always like these Game 3 match-ups, but they have an edge tonight. Let's hope the stats hold true.
I also love the Cardinals today on the RL, altho they are only the 2nd biggest favorite. I'm not in love with the Yankees play today, but we've won 3 straight days for 3 Units, so we're pretty happy about that.

Cheers

















Continued Success 

I hear you on the Giants.  I'll give them a pass on the Jimenez game...the guy has reached "don't bet against me for the rest of the season" status.  Still, this could be their second time getting swept at home in less than a month!  I hope you are working some of your voodoo magic again!  After getting destroyed yesterday, I could use a little black magic.

Leprechaun

Friggin' Giants are a jinx. I'm laying off this game, so you guys should be oK. LOL

Yeah, hoping the early games go good, so even if the Giants can't get it done it won't hurt quite so much. On the Mets, Indians, Cards RL for early side action.

I do like the match-up tonight for the Giants. Let's hope this is one night where sabermetrics hold true.

Good Luck Guys

Cheers 

I feel sick right now watching that "safe" call at 1st base..

I had small money on the Indians tonight, but I was cheering for the Perfect Game once the Tigers went up 3-0 bottom 8.

Feel horrible for Galarraga, wow what a game he pitched. Just to have it taken away by what can be described nothing other than a "HORRIBLE" call by the 1st base ump.

There has been a lot of pathetic umpiring so far this season, but this one takes the cake.

Absolutely terrible outcome for that guy. Sickening.

At least Jim Joyce openly admitted he was wrong about his call. It doesn't change the fact.. but it still takes guts to admit when you made a mistake.

A big, big win by Matt Cain and the giants last night. The stats didn't lie and the Sabercapping was right. A couple of nice Runline wins last night, as well.
One new Top 7 play tonight, and we really like this one.

















Continued Success 

BOL my friend

Another win on the Blitz last night, quite a run of games going now thanks to the New York Yankees. Tonight is a little bit different for myself, as the White Sox were the clear-cut Opening Line favorite. People apparently do not know how to read OPENING Lines as I am seeing some wide variance on plays for the Top Favorite of the Day, each and every day.
The best way to find the Opening Line is to go to the top of any Covers page you are on and find ODDS in the menu across the top, then choose MLB. From there you get a complete list of the day's games and you find the ones which are the highest. Some days there is 1 favorite which is so much higher you don't need to check the others. But, on days like this, you find the 3 or 4 which are all fairly high and click on LINE HISTORY.

This lists the odds for most major sportsbooks and casinos across the land, from the time they opened the line to it's current value. Since this list shows the time of day everyone opened their odds, it should be very easy. You find the earliest time of day any of these books opened a line. Some books opened a line at 3pm yesterday, while others didn't open one until 11pm last night. You go by the 3pm line, since it was clearly set by the oddsmakers. The 11pm book has watched how much the public is moving things by then and then opens a much different line 8 hours later..

The White Sox opened yesterday afternoon -245 at Bookmaker and Diamond, around 2:35pm. The Public immediately bet this down and most books then opened between 4-5pm at -220. By today, Joe Public is clearly smart enough to know this is a stupid crazy line and are jumping on Cleveland for insane value. So we've seen Chicago drop below -180 now.
St. Louis opened around 2:45pm yesterday -200 across 6 or 7 different Books. By today, Joe Public sees Wainwright is pitching and jumps on board, driving the line up to -220, -230, thus becoming the Current Line Top Favorite. This does not mean they are the play for the day.. I don't know why that is so hard to see..

That being said.. I am personally playing things different today, which I rarely do. PLEASE read the spreadsheet carefully as to the explanation. For System integrity we have to list Chicago as the play, but I am not personally playing them. I personally hate all the RunLine top lines today, but I have wagered on St. Louis.

On some rare days, I will also be posting my Side Plays since they have been going really well. For the record, we get a lot of leans on games throughout the day, but we don't end up playing them all. The plays I post here will all be plays I am actually wagering on. It wouldn't be right to post a play I wasn't actually invested on myself.

Cheers 










NEW YORK METS  -175          GAME 1 of 3
     -- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL


WEST COAST UNDER

OAKLAND A'S  U7.5     -115     GAME 1


ON THE SIDE

KANSAS CITY ROYALS  +120     Top Play
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS  -130
MINNESOTA TWINS  -105

These plays all represent good value as far as Situational & Statistical Analysis. These come from not only my own analysis, but also of a group involvement, not on Covers. They are not Chase plays.



Continued Success 

Added one side play. This was close to being the Top Play earlier, but we had to hold off for awhile.
A spreadsheet will soon be linked to On The Side shortly. These plays will be held accountable just as everything else.





ON THE SIDE

KANSAS CITY ROYALS  +120     Top Play
CINCINNATI REDS  -114
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS  -130
MINNESOTA TWINS  -105

These plays all represent good value as far as Situational & Statistical Analysis. These come from not only my own analysis, but also of a group involvement, not on Covers. They are not Chase plays.



Continued Success 

Now that was one helluva night! If anyone is playing this, I hope you took my advice on the spreadsheet and avoided Chicago and Philadelphia today, and played St. Louis.

Too bad Cincinnati could not complete a perfect day, but I'm pretty happy with 3-1 On The Side..

6-2 Overall is a great start to the weekend! 

Cheers  

Nice night Kreatture

Wow.. just checking my tickets and forgot I had put in this monster parley for .15 Units which would have paid 13.56 Units (+9045 odds). Rarely ever do this, but I just these all looked good.
I'm really mad at Cincinnati now, HaHa
Not sure if this will copy and paste properly..

Line	Competition	Match	Match Date	Forecast	Odds	Correct?	Result
***	LAA (J Saunders) v SEA (I Snell)	Jun 04, 2010 22:10
***	MIN (S Baker) v OAK (D Braden)	Jun 04, 2010 22:05
***	COL (A Cook) v ARI (I Kennedy)	Jun 04, 2010 21:40
***	DET (M Scherzer) v KAN (B Chen)	Jun 04, 2010 20:10
***	TAM (W Davis) v TEX (C Wilson)	Jun 04, 2010 20:05
***	SFO (J Sanchez) v PIT (Z Duke)	Jun 04, 2010 19:05
***	CIN (A Harang) v WAS (L Hernandez)	Jun 04, 2010 19:05

Bummer!!

Well.. it copied better than I thought it would. I thought it might be a big mess.

Selections were LAA, MIN, ARI, KAN, TEX, SFO, & CIN.

I lost my .15 Unit 

Great night, K!!

Thanks for the hard work.  If you have the time, I'd like your thinking behind the West Coast Under spreadsheet.  I'm assuming this is a chase on the under when the listed teams are at home.

Yes, it is a Chase on the Under for those Home Teams. The under has a decent shot tonight since Joe Mauer is being given the day off, but I'm not continuing to play this System for the time being. I have too much going on to get involved in a Totals Chase System right now. Even if it is only a few plays a season.. there have just been too many deep chases over the past which still makes me a little uncomfortable.

We'll watch on the sidelines for now.. we have enough plays going all ready.

Cheers