Week 9's Public Burial, or mine?

YTD: 24-15-2 (+8.42)

5-4 (+0.08) in week 8

I took a look ahead line last week that didn't work out, as the # has gone the other way. I'm fine with it cause we're still under a FG, and I could still possibly add more.

As of now, I'm seeing 64% of bets and 75% of the $ on the Browns. Why? I have no clue, but good, let em print tickets with reckless abandon. 

But we'll be patient here. My biggest play yet this year, but it's not a slammer. I'm being careful so far this season. 

Saints -2.5(-110) *2.20/2.00

If you guys haven't noticed,  I've been dialing in on situational stuff a lot. Scheduling, who's tired, who's fresh, who's desperate, who's over or under valued, coaching shit. I'll post that now and go into stats, rankings, #'s and x's/o's on another post.

This will be the Browns 4th road game in 5 weeks. Facing the Saints off a bye. The Saints are one of 3 teams this year to chose their bye after an international game(France).

So far, the Jags coming off b2b England games took their bye in week 7. Smoked the Colts 42-7 last week. The Patriots in week 10 will play the Lions in Munich. They chose their bye following that game, the Lions did not. Put that in your memory bank.

For all the teams that didn't take a bye following an international game have had poor results, for the most part. I didn't look so someone please feel free to fact check me. The Steelers didn't, and handed the Browns their ass last week.

The Browns have not had an indoor game yet this year. I know, this might not mean shit, but I like it. Crowd noise, O line communication, lighting, turf, and other things will be different after playing 8 straight out door games. It's nothing that any of these players haven't played in before. Although it can throw them off initially I believe, we're dealing with human beings.

The Browns don't play indoors much at all being from the afc north. In the last 10 years they've gone 7-12 su in such games.

The Browns have 5 wins this year. Deshawn Watson has 5 game winning drives this year. 3 of those being 4th quarter come backs. He's been sacked 33 times, with a 11.70% sack percentage. The highest in the league. 

Is that the kind of guy you want your $ on? Losing or tied most of the game? Sounds stressful to me.

Fwiw, he got banged up last game. Was checked for a concussion but came back into the game.

The Browns pythagorean win/loss record is 3-5.

The Browns luck rating is #1 at 2.1, compared to the Saints at #21 at -0.8. A full FG one can say.

More later. 

@undermysac

 Love the saints Bol this week

Sounds very reasonable..........

I agree, Browns are not good, if they make the playoffs which I doubt they will very likey they get destroyed by any of the good teams.

Saints losses this year:

Week 1 at Detroit. Lost in overtime. The Saints could of tied it with an extra point, but chose to go for 2 and failed. They out gained the Lions by 100 yards. They had 3 turnovers. 1 was a lost fumble.

Week 3: Vs the Raiders. Up 27-22 going into the 4th quarter and got Kirk Cousin'd. Gained 41 more yards than the Raiders, 5 minutes more top. 4 turnovers, 3 were lost fumbles.

Week 4: Vs Atlanta. Kind of an ass whooping here, but the stats were closer than the scoreboard. Atlanta had 100 more yards. T.o.p. was even, Atlanta had 2 more first downs. The Saints lost a fumble, Atlanta had 0 turnovers. 

Week 5: Vs the Vikings. There was no answer for the blitzing Flores's. Shough had 2 interceptions. The Saints lost another fumble. Vikings win by 10.

Week 7: In France vs the Steelers. 13-10 at halftime. Still a game. The Saints lost 16-10. They lost another fumble and the Steelers had 0 turnovers. 

Strength of schedule is very close. Browns #23, Saints #21.

They've had 2 common opponents, the Steelers and Ravens. The Browns beat the Steelers by 3 at home, then lost to them by 21 otr. The Saints lost to the Steelers by 6(neutral field). The Browns beat the Ravens by 3 at home, vs Tyler Huntley. The Saints beat the Steelers by 7 otr, vs a healthy Lamar Jackson. 

Kellen Moore as an offensive coordinator off a bye week:

4-2 SU, PS=25.5, PA=21.5

One of the losses was a 28-31 overtime loss @ Green Bay.

The other loss was a 17-20 final vs the Cowboys. He was the OC of the Chargers, and no one knew him better than the Cowboys at the time.

As far as being a coach, being last year when he took over the putrid 5-12 Saints of 2024.

They lost after their bye last year, 10-27 vs the Falcons. Kirk Cousins strikes again. And then beat him again in week 18. He has to hate him.

@undermysac

 Good luck, the public can pick the entire schedule in 2 minutes. Faves, overs and teams that never win but have a good record.

There's only 1 game where the Saints DC Brandon Staley has faced the Browns HC Todd Monken(Ravens OC).

Staley was the Chargers HC at the time, surrendering 20 pts to a Monken offense. 2 FG's and 2 Zay Flowers TD's, 1 rushing, 1 receiving.

Staley has 1 game vs Deshawn Watson. He was the linebackers coach for Denver. He followed Vic Fangio when they coached together on the Bears.

Watson that game was 28/50 passing, 282 yards, 1 td, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks. 63.1 qbr.

On the other side of this one on account of the Browns scoring under 10 at Pittsburgh. One of the things I've found bizarre about this season is how many people I've heard describe the Saints as "a surprise team." They're 2-5, notwithstanding the close losses. Based on records, I should think the 5-3 Browns are the actual surprise team here.

The Raiders came to NO and put up 35, then the Falcons came in and put up 45. Vikings 23, Giants 27. Shough is better than expected, the defense isn't great.

@garbagetime

 Fair point. The Saints defense is very bad. No hiding it.

On account of the Browns being the surprise team, they've surprised me enough after 8 weeks.

All their wins have been "miracles" I could say. Or more realistically, maybe 50/50 type of events. 

Can Deshawn Watson do it again? Certainly. If so I'll eat crow.

No DeShaun fan. If they win it'll because their defense stops the Saints. They're generally holding teams to 20 points, not that they've played that many good teams.

Last bit on this game. Then onto QB's. Here's some surprising red zone stats.

Let's start with offense

Redzone trips per game:

Saints 3.3(#15), Browns 2.4(#31)

Redzone TD%:

Saints 74%(#2), Browns 47%(#30)

Redzone score %:

Saints 91%(#9), Browns 79%(#30)

Redzone epa per play:

Saints +0.30(#3), Browns -0.05(#22)

On defense in the redzone. We should expect the Browns to have drastically better #'s...

Redzone trips per game allowed:

Saints 4.3(#32), Browns 2.9(#10)

Redzone TD% allowed:

Saints 57%(#13), Browns 52%(#11)

Redzone score % allowed:

Saints 87%(#14), Browns 87%(#16) the site doesn't list decimals

Redzone epa per play:

Saints -0.11(#7), Browns -0.3(#10)

The red zone trips allowed by the Saints is the glaring stat. We know that they have a fumbling problem. They've had 7. Where on the field have they lost em? Is the bad luck rating a part of this?

The Browns have lost 8 fumbles this year, most in the league. Where did they lose them? They're ranked #1 in luck.

Here are a few trends, I personally do not like either side of this game.

Saints are 0-7-1 ats as a favorite vs the Browns since the NFL started in 1970.

The Dog in the Saints vs Browns games is 12-0-1 ATS since 1981.

The Saints could win & cover & make these trends obsolete or they could continue. Good luck either way with your plays.

Games a pk on my site. You really got it 4 hours ago at -2.5?

QBR:

Shough 90.9(#19), Watson 91.2(#18)

PFF:

Shough 72.5(#18), Watson 54.3(#28)

Adjusted EPA per play:

Shough 0.077, Watson 0.035

There's a lot of similarities with both offenses. They both run a shit load of shotgun, and don't use play action much at all. 

The Browns use the most shotgun at 77.7%, the Saints at 68.2%.

The Browns run PA 12.8% of the time, and the Saints 11.1%.

The Browns defense runs the most man coverage in the NFL at 43.4%. Shough is really good against man coverage. 64.4% completion is 5th best in the league. 102.1 passer rating is 10th best vs man. With the 4th best catchable rate vs man at 74.3%.

The Saints offense motions 62.7% of the time. This should easily show Shough when the Browns are in man coverage, and when they're not.

The Saints defense runs zone 75.2%. Deshaun Watson passer rating vs zone 97.2, with a 70.5% catchable rate vs zone which is 29th in the league. 

And fwiw, Brandon Staley likes to run a lot of cover 3 zone. And yea it's been a shitty defense overall. Although Watson has struggled against it, generating just 10.6% explosive plays against it, which is 6th lowest in the league. 

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/article/browns-qb-deshaun-watsons-advanced-stats-reveal-concerning-trend-292171017/

Look ahead bet. I posted it on last week's thread. First thing I wrote "I took a look ahead line last week that didn't work out"

ahhhh. Well if you like it that good, get some more on it!

these “trends” are so stupid. There’s zero rhyme and reason behind them. If the browns cover it won’t be bc of shit that happened in the 70’s, 80’s etc. 

@SecretAgentMan1

 Those stats are too old. Saints won last 3 meetings and they were a long time ago.

Good luck Sac.  

love the writeup on saints 

diggin deeper but eye'ing these rn: falcons / commanders / chargers / packers

I'm seeing 3 public dogs. These never turn out well. The favs are on my target list.

Lions otr in Miami. Outdoors, should be warm/hot...

Jets otr in KC. Why is this # so high?

Falcons in Madrid...

Then this one, Broncos public fav...

Broncos otr in Carolina. This is a particularly bad spot for the Broncos, I'll go into it later. But the Panthers injuries and terrible O line has me paused for now.

Any thoughts?

Typo, Lions are the public fav. My brain is all over the place trying to work and look at games simultaneously. I'm looking at Miami.

Another public dog is the Raiders. Vs the best team in football off a bye? I was on the Falcons vs SF, we knew what a shitty spot that was. No way they come out flat again. Imo. Looking at the Niners if no one else wants them.

How's CMC's "dead leg" and lower back? Is Mike Evans gonna play? The line certainly says so

9ers is one of those picks that probably has a 50/50 shot of a cover in “the real football world” but I agree is the correct side. Of course the backdoor cover could be on the table for the entire game. A couple bad calls, or just one in garbage time, or a fluke turnover or two and you’re begging for SF to pull it off late. But regardless it’s the right side imo. 

This is just a sell high spot on the Raiders. The win against the jets last week means nothing. The Raiders are not a good football team. The defense is absolutely atrocious on the back end. All it takes is a good defensive performance from SF where they hold Cousins and Bowers in check. I mean wtf were the Jets doing last week? How many times can Bowers beat you? They made no adjustments. And the way the Jets ran all over them? Shanahan’s eyes will be popping out of his head watching that film. I laid the 9.5 and I think that’s the number you gotta get your hands on. Look out for Kaelon Black for a rushing yards prop. I think Shanahan would love to get back to pounding the run and controlling the clock in this game. Keep Purdy away from Crosby and walk out of this game with a stress free win…34-20?