Wanted to point something out to you my friend told me about those stats on covers. The "Experts" are the guys on contests that cap those teams the "best", or highest percentage so far.
You may hate a certain team and fade them most of the time, and the team can lose those times and you're an "expert". In other words guys can be busters and still be an expert on a given team's side or totals.
Hey BAMA
Wanted to point something out to you my friend told me about those stats on covers. The "Experts" are the guys on contests that cap those teams the "best", or highest percentage so far.
You may hate a certain team and fade them most of the time, and the team can lose those times and you're an "expert". In other words guys can be busters and still be an expert on a given team's side or totals.
Thanks smoothD for the opinion man. I have a totally different take on it and is prob why m system differs from how you pick your games.
I see the public Being on the over purely because 57% Covers contests consensus busters were on the over. In spite of this, and the stats you mentioned, that point towards the over, they moved the line down. Way down.
If they know people are liking the over at 187.5, why would they LOWER it and offer it at a better price? It went down, then more, then more, all the way to 184.5. This is a huge line move and tells me they think it's going under.
We will see what happens but this is my general theory. Anyways good luck just wanted to add my take on it.
Thanks smoothD for the opinion man. I have a totally different take on it and is prob why m system differs from how you pick your games.
I see the public Being on the over purely because 57% Covers contests consensus busters were on the over. In spite of this, and the stats you mentioned, that point towards the over, they moved the line down. Way down.
If they know people are liking the over at 187.5, why would they LOWER it and offer it at a better price? It went down, then more, then more, all the way to 184.5. This is a huge line move and tells me they think it's going under.
We will see what happens but this is my general theory. Anyways good luck just wanted to add my take on it.
Go to any matchup and look at those stats and who the experts are on, for instance user xcdh123 is #1 93% on Memphis games. Click on that guy and see how he does on everything else. He may be a total buster man and not know shit and just be hot on that team for the year.
BAMA
Go to any matchup and look at those stats and who the experts are on, for instance user xcdh123 is #1 93% on Memphis games. Click on that guy and see how he does on everything else. He may be a total buster man and not know shit and just be hot on that team for the year.
Those "expert" stats can be deceiving but really don't mean shit man for real. Just who's been right on that team in the past. If they're busters they're just as likely to be wrong in the future.
Those "expert" stats can be deceiving but really don't mean shit man for real. Just who's been right on that team in the past. If they're busters they're just as likely to be wrong in the future.
BAMA and smoothD and everyone I have another interesting concept for your consideration.
Vegas can't move the lines too much simply to balance the money on both sides. Let's use the Clips game as an example. Say 55% likes over, but then 3 wiseguys come in and lay heavy wood on the under, and they sink the line to 184.5.
Now, all the busters come in and take the over, at 184.5.
Now, Vegas can get MIDDLED. if the total lands on 186, which coincidentally is where the game is tracking at the moment, then they lose on both sides.
This is a big reason why I think these moves can be sharp. Vegas is basically tipping their hand and saying oops we fucked up and 187.5 was too high. Now whether 184.5 is also or not, I don't know. Obviously I'd rather have under 187.5 than under 184.5 right now. Unfortunately I have to see the move first in order to take the play.
BAMA and smoothD and everyone I have another interesting concept for your consideration.
Vegas can't move the lines too much simply to balance the money on both sides. Let's use the Clips game as an example. Say 55% likes over, but then 3 wiseguys come in and lay heavy wood on the under, and they sink the line to 184.5.
Now, all the busters come in and take the over, at 184.5.
Now, Vegas can get MIDDLED. if the total lands on 186, which coincidentally is where the game is tracking at the moment, then they lose on both sides.
This is a big reason why I think these moves can be sharp. Vegas is basically tipping their hand and saying oops we fucked up and 187.5 was too high. Now whether 184.5 is also or not, I don't know. Obviously I'd rather have under 187.5 than under 184.5 right now. Unfortunately I have to see the move first in order to take the play.
Is it me or has the officiating in the Playoffs gone down a few notches. I'm seeing some horrible calls and I don't normally complain about the refs. But this year's officiating is atrocious.
Is it me or has the officiating in the Playoffs gone down a few notches. I'm seeing some horrible calls and I don't normally complain about the refs. But this year's officiating is atrocious.
Czech- How's this for a scenario. Now remember these guys that do the numbers whether it's the company that I referred to earlier or one of the books on the strip. These guys are no dummies they know their stuff. Now they put the number artificially high so to attract the Under bettors hence the more juice on the Under. Now that they have sucked these poor saps in. They turn around and lower that number to 184.5 to get the Over money. Vegas doesn't give a dam what number comes in they just want that juice. As long as it's not one sided and they don't get middled they win. That's their game. My point is sometimes it doesn't matter about what money comes in. They will manipulate the line based on their forecast on how much juice they have based on all outcomes. For example they may have taken in so much money on the Under they say hey we need to bring some Over money in. So now they lower the number and here comes the Over money. These guys know what they're doing. So again don't think that's is all based on Busters, Sharps, and Wise Guys. The Sharpest guys in the room are the sportsbooks.
Czech- How's this for a scenario. Now remember these guys that do the numbers whether it's the company that I referred to earlier or one of the books on the strip. These guys are no dummies they know their stuff. Now they put the number artificially high so to attract the Under bettors hence the more juice on the Under. Now that they have sucked these poor saps in. They turn around and lower that number to 184.5 to get the Over money. Vegas doesn't give a dam what number comes in they just want that juice. As long as it's not one sided and they don't get middled they win. That's their game. My point is sometimes it doesn't matter about what money comes in. They will manipulate the line based on their forecast on how much juice they have based on all outcomes. For example they may have taken in so much money on the Under they say hey we need to bring some Over money in. So now they lower the number and here comes the Over money. These guys know what they're doing. So again don't think that's is all based on Busters, Sharps, and Wise Guys. The Sharpest guys in the room are the sportsbooks.
Another thing to consider is half time middles. When they lower the lines they are leaving themselves more susceptible to juicy middles if the game tracks over first half.
Clips game went 96 in the first half, and second half line is 91. 91 is less than half the original total, and if you take the under you're getting under 187 for the game.
SYSTEM PLAY UNDER 91 SECOND HALF
2 System Plays today are:
Memphis under 184.5 for the game
Memphis under 91 second half (187 for the game)
Another thing to consider is half time middles. When they lower the lines they are leaving themselves more susceptible to juicy middles if the game tracks over first half.
Clips game went 96 in the first half, and second half line is 91. 91 is less than half the original total, and if you take the under you're getting under 187 for the game.
BAMA and smoothD and everyone I have another interesting concept for your consideration.
Vegas can't move the lines too much simply to balance the money on both sides. Let's use the Clips game as an example. Say 55% likes over, but then 3 wiseguys come in and lay heavy wood on the under, and they sink the line to 184.5.
Now, all the busters come in and take the over, at 184.5.
Now, Vegas can get MIDDLED. if the total lands on 186, which coincidentally is where the game is tracking at the moment, then they lose on both sides.
This is a big reason why I think these moves can be sharp. Vegas is basically tipping their hand and saying oops we fucked up and 187.5 was too high. Now whether 184.5 is also or not, I don't know. Obviously I'd rather have under 187.5 than under 184.5 right now. Unfortunately I have to see the move first in order to take the play.
LOL I just saw this post after I posted my previous post. Exactly that's why you have to look at other factors because those movements aren't always based on Sharp plays or Busters just Vegas trying to grab more money.
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
BAMA and smoothD and everyone I have another interesting concept for your consideration.
Vegas can't move the lines too much simply to balance the money on both sides. Let's use the Clips game as an example. Say 55% likes over, but then 3 wiseguys come in and lay heavy wood on the under, and they sink the line to 184.5.
Now, all the busters come in and take the over, at 184.5.
Now, Vegas can get MIDDLED. if the total lands on 186, which coincidentally is where the game is tracking at the moment, then they lose on both sides.
This is a big reason why I think these moves can be sharp. Vegas is basically tipping their hand and saying oops we fucked up and 187.5 was too high. Now whether 184.5 is also or not, I don't know. Obviously I'd rather have under 187.5 than under 184.5 right now. Unfortunately I have to see the move first in order to take the play.
LOL I just saw this post after I posted my previous post. Exactly that's why you have to look at other factors because those movements aren't always based on Sharp plays or Busters just Vegas trying to grab more money.
Lol np smoothD anyways this total is a sweat and tracking to be close no matter who wins. It's probably gonna middle for real especially since I said that earlier and am on the under. Second half under is tracking fine so far though
Lol np smoothD anyways this total is a sweat and tracking to be close no matter who wins. It's probably gonna middle for real especially since I said that earlier and am on the under. Second half under is tracking fine so far though
Lol np smoothD anyways this total is a sweat and tracking to be close no matter who wins. It's probably gonna middle for real especially since I said that earlier and am on the under. Second half under is tracking fine so far though
Suddenly an easy Over is going to be a nailbiter. Thanks Clippers.
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Lol np smoothD anyways this total is a sweat and tracking to be close no matter who wins. It's probably gonna middle for real especially since I said that earlier and am on the under. Second half under is tracking fine so far though
Suddenly an easy Over is going to be a nailbiter. Thanks Clippers.
We got 3 riding together today, 2 sharps and a squire, Mem ml and the under and the second half under all riding together...yah yah! Whip them horses!!!
We got 3 riding together today, 2 sharps and a squire, Mem ml and the under and the second half under all riding together...yah yah! Whip them horses!!!
It's going to take a miracle for this Under to happen with these brick shooting teams. Clippers go 5 min without a FG and Memphis follows that up with 6 min without FG. Amazing. That's all I can say freaking amazing.
It's going to take a miracle for this Under to happen with these brick shooting teams. Clippers go 5 min without a FG and Memphis follows that up with 6 min without FG. Amazing. That's all I can say freaking amazing.
in hard around the bend...
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