More info on that Angels game. Haren is starting and he is 2-0 in 5 starts against Cleveland and has never given up more than 2 earned runs while striking out a minimum of 6 batters in his career against the tribe. The last 2 games against them he struck out 10 batters in both games.
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More info on that Angels game. Haren is starting and he is 2-0 in 5 starts against Cleveland and has never given up more than 2 earned runs while striking out a minimum of 6 batters in his career against the tribe. The last 2 games against them he struck out 10 batters in both games.
Congrats again to SMOOTHD for getting my system off to a 2-0 start last night! That was some smooth picking there buddy, taking 2 dreadful Cubs and SD teams as dogs on the road!
SmoothD decided to with the sharps and it paid DIVIDENDS!!!
I know you guys want the sharp plays for today and I will deliver my picks soon. I have a pretty good handle on this first game but was hoping for stronger indicators on my first release, plus I'd hate for my first release to be fading my favorite team!
This is what a sharp does though, puts his feelings aside and goes for the $. Stay tuned for the plays.
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Congrats again to SMOOTHD for getting my system off to a 2-0 start last night! That was some smooth picking there buddy, taking 2 dreadful Cubs and SD teams as dogs on the road!
SmoothD decided to with the sharps and it paid DIVIDENDS!!!
I know you guys want the sharp plays for today and I will deliver my picks soon. I have a pretty good handle on this first game but was hoping for stronger indicators on my first release, plus I'd hate for my first release to be fading my favorite team!
This is what a sharp does though, puts his feelings aside and goes for the $. Stay tuned for the plays.
Alright guys here it goes. Busters are on Chi and also on NY today, and both overs.
The line moves are favoring Phi and Miami and both unders.
Miami -9
Miami under 186.5
Phi +8.5
Phi under 175
Special attention to Miami and the under. This is a special case of most busters being on the road dog, yet the home favorite is becoming more expensive. Plus I like taking a favorite and under together, as they are often correlated.
Miami and the under look like the 2 sharpest plays so far, with Phi and the under looking good also.
I like NY as a team and can't see them laying 9 pts to anyone but this is buster mentality and the system says Miami. I just hope this Miami move isn't because of Chandler having the flu, but the indicators are there so I'm listing it as a play. We shall see.
I put 4 picks up so we'll see how they fare. Good luck
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Alright guys here it goes. Busters are on Chi and also on NY today, and both overs.
The line moves are favoring Phi and Miami and both unders.
Miami -9
Miami under 186.5
Phi +8.5
Phi under 175
Special attention to Miami and the under. This is a special case of most busters being on the road dog, yet the home favorite is becoming more expensive. Plus I like taking a favorite and under together, as they are often correlated.
Miami and the under look like the 2 sharpest plays so far, with Phi and the under looking good also.
I like NY as a team and can't see them laying 9 pts to anyone but this is buster mentality and the system says Miami. I just hope this Miami move isn't because of Chandler having the flu, but the indicators are there so I'm listing it as a play. We shall see.
I put 4 picks up so we'll see how they fare. Good luck
See guys this is why the system has rules, and I have broken them right out of the gate. I listed plays for Miami game way too early, and total has moved up to 187.5. This also disqualifies it as a sharp play.
I also broke the rules on taking Chi total since it went back to 175. This did not qualify as a sharp play, just a personal opinion pick.
I am still taking Miami under but taking it at under 187.5. I am also taking Bulls under 87 second half.
I have listed 5 plays so far today but for the sake of tracking the system keep in mind only 2 picks have qualified so far,
Miami -9 and Phi +8.5
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See guys this is why the system has rules, and I have broken them right out of the gate. I listed plays for Miami game way too early, and total has moved up to 187.5. This also disqualifies it as a sharp play.
I also broke the rules on taking Chi total since it went back to 175. This did not qualify as a sharp play, just a personal opinion pick.
I am still taking Miami under but taking it at under 187.5. I am also taking Bulls under 87 second half.
I have listed 5 plays so far today but for the sake of tracking the system keep in mind only 2 picks have qualified so far,
Indi over 191.5 is looking sharp. Busters are on the under for some reason and the total has moved up, plus I like it. Guys, I'm sorry for letting you down out of the gate and breaking rules.
We cannot be breaking rules in our march to Sin City. Guerillas from Captown are trying to overrun us right outside our own gates on this first game. We will stand firm in our resolve and crush the resistance today. Keep in mind 60% is our goal.
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Indi over 191.5 is looking sharp. Busters are on the under for some reason and the total has moved up, plus I like it. Guys, I'm sorry for letting you down out of the gate and breaking rules.
We cannot be breaking rules in our march to Sin City. Guerillas from Captown are trying to overrun us right outside our own gates on this first game. We will stand firm in our resolve and crush the resistance today. Keep in mind 60% is our goal.
Okay and now the total on Mia has moved to 188. This is not what we want to see on an under bet. I am making this a no-play and not betting it. I will reflect it in my record since I was a BUSTER and posted it early but this is why you cannot do that.
I was wondering whether I should have shared my system before but now I'm glad I did. If you read it all you will see where I broke the rules and messed up.
We look for consistent line moves in opposition to the consensus. The only picks that have qualified are Phi and Mia. That's it
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Okay and now the total on Mia has moved to 188. This is not what we want to see on an under bet. I am making this a no-play and not betting it. I will reflect it in my record since I was a BUSTER and posted it early but this is why you cannot do that.
I was wondering whether I should have shared my system before but now I'm glad I did. If you read it all you will see where I broke the rules and messed up.
We look for consistent line moves in opposition to the consensus. The only picks that have qualified are Phi and Mia. That's it
The mercenaries have defeated Czech_ in his first battle! Czech was punished for his insolence in breaking his own rules. He left camp on a broken horse and without his armor and was gunned down just outside the city gates.
Phi was originally deemed a no-play since I didn't like them according to rule 3. I stated this pre-game.
The total was also suspect as it moved up late, which disqualified it as a play. Czech was supposed to lay off this game entirely and he didn't, he wanted to post a play and lost site of the goal.
Czech paid the ultimate price for his idiocy and is going 0-2 to start. Way to go Czech
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The mercenaries have defeated Czech_ in his first battle! Czech was punished for his insolence in breaking his own rules. He left camp on a broken horse and without his armor and was gunned down just outside the city gates.
Phi was originally deemed a no-play since I didn't like them according to rule 3. I stated this pre-game.
The total was also suspect as it moved up late, which disqualified it as a play. Czech was supposed to lay off this game entirely and he didn't, he wanted to post a play and lost site of the goal.
Czech paid the ultimate price for his idiocy and is going 0-2 to start. Way to go Czech
This in my opinion is the first gem of the system to be seen today, the OKC under. It has dropped significantly even though busters are 2-1 on the over.
Also as mentioned before Indi over looks sharp as well, moving up when the busters like the under. I am riding with
Indi over 191.5
OKC under 193
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Guys here is a seriously sharp play:
This in my opinion is the first gem of the system to be seen today, the OKC under. It has dropped significantly even though busters are 2-1 on the over.
Also as mentioned before Indi over looks sharp as well, moving up when the busters like the under. I am riding with
Tough loss Smooth. Here is something I noticed tonight you might want to look at. I lost an 8 pick parlay tonight with 1 loss. The loss was Tigers getting 1.5. I took them because they were getting the +1.5 on betus.com and on here they were favored. This has happened to me the last couple of nights. I lost the $10 bet and the win would have been enough to pay for my trip to Vegas in October but I found an angle worth playing(paid 800). When a team is favored here and your book is giving that team the +1.5 the dog on here has not only won but covered the 1.5. Take the team that is the dog on here but a -1.5 at your book
This is a new angle but one I feel is worth looking at
Red Sox fall under this play
My top plays today were
Boston
Orioles
Angels
Cards
Nats
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Quote Originally Posted by booyahz123:
Tough loss Smooth. Here is something I noticed tonight you might want to look at. I lost an 8 pick parlay tonight with 1 loss. The loss was Tigers getting 1.5. I took them because they were getting the +1.5 on betus.com and on here they were favored. This has happened to me the last couple of nights. I lost the $10 bet and the win would have been enough to pay for my trip to Vegas in October but I found an angle worth playing(paid 800). When a team is favored here and your book is giving that team the +1.5 the dog on here has not only won but covered the 1.5. Take the team that is the dog on here but a -1.5 at your book
This is a new angle but one I feel is worth looking at
We see now that Chandler is playing and that's prob why the total went up late.
See guys this is EXACTLY why I don't like moves according to players being out. We had the right side all along with the under, but I disqualified it according to the line action.
If Mia and the under come thru I will be 2-2 headed into tonight's games. This is fine with me as I expect to clean up tonight. Let's go Mia and under.
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We see now that Chandler is playing and that's prob why the total went up late.
See guys this is EXACTLY why I don't like moves according to players being out. We had the right side all along with the under, but I disqualified it according to the line action.
If Mia and the under come thru I will be 2-2 headed into tonight's games. This is fine with me as I expect to clean up tonight. Let's go Mia and under.
GL BOOYAHZ! Man it's tough getting off to a bad start especially with me being new in here and having something to prove. I shared an awesome system and then fucked up by capping the first game and breaking my own rules.
Chi is my favorite team and according to rule 3 I could not like Phi hence making it a no-play. And then the total went up to 175 also making it a no-play.
Let's make up for lost time and $ tonight. I think you and I seem to have the same ideas about these line moves. I for one have seen the power already and we will be just fine.
Mia and the under are looking good so far. I'm a little worried about Indi since again I think this will be a public play and I'm afraid the line move has too much to do with everyone thinking Orl can't compete without Howard.
I posted Indi and OKC before but I doubt I bet either side. I am going to reflect 8 picks in my record today and that is my fault but only 4 of those picks have qualified as true system plays, and really I could take Indi off that list also however this move is big enough that I am leaving it.
I do very much like the Indi over and OKC under. Those 2 meet ALL the requirements especially the OKC under. Give it a good look and tell me what you think.
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GL BOOYAHZ! Man it's tough getting off to a bad start especially with me being new in here and having something to prove. I shared an awesome system and then fucked up by capping the first game and breaking my own rules.
Chi is my favorite team and according to rule 3 I could not like Phi hence making it a no-play. And then the total went up to 175 also making it a no-play.
Let's make up for lost time and $ tonight. I think you and I seem to have the same ideas about these line moves. I for one have seen the power already and we will be just fine.
Mia and the under are looking good so far. I'm a little worried about Indi since again I think this will be a public play and I'm afraid the line move has too much to do with everyone thinking Orl can't compete without Howard.
I posted Indi and OKC before but I doubt I bet either side. I am going to reflect 8 picks in my record today and that is my fault but only 4 of those picks have qualified as true system plays, and really I could take Indi off that list also however this move is big enough that I am leaving it.
I do very much like the Indi over and OKC under. Those 2 meet ALL the requirements especially the OKC under. Give it a good look and tell me what you think.
That's why I shared the system, because I'm prone to making mistakes. If I just post my picks then I have to explain them later lol. Now people on here can judge for themselves whether the posted plays we're in line with the system or not.
I think in fairness PHI did qualify, even though it didn't for me since I didn't like it. But if I were a Phi fan it would have qualified, so I have to eat that one 0-1.
The bulls total did not qualify on any level. I think the MIA under was a solid pick but unfortunately for me did not qualify either. Mia did though for sure, being a progressive and significant line move in opposition to the public being on NY.
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Yeah I'm obviously an amateur lol.
That's why I shared the system, because I'm prone to making mistakes. If I just post my picks then I have to explain them later lol. Now people on here can judge for themselves whether the posted plays we're in line with the system or not.
I think in fairness PHI did qualify, even though it didn't for me since I didn't like it. But if I were a Phi fan it would have qualified, so I have to eat that one 0-1.
The bulls total did not qualify on any level. I think the MIA under was a solid pick but unfortunately for me did not qualify either. Mia did though for sure, being a progressive and significant line move in opposition to the public being on NY.
The only argument I could make for Phi not qualifying was what I said earlier about them being 45/55.
I think Vegas expected the public to be on chi 60%+, and when they weren't they brought the line down. But really this should mean that 8.5 was the true line and this is not a good excuse for me.
The truth is Phi should have covered. They were down 10 with a minute to go and the ball and Derrick rose out. All they had to do was score their next possession and prob would have covered.
But in basketball it all comes down to the last 2 minutes and they did not perform. Oh well
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The only argument I could make for Phi not qualifying was what I said earlier about them being 45/55.
I think Vegas expected the public to be on chi 60%+, and when they weren't they brought the line down. But really this should mean that 8.5 was the true line and this is not a good excuse for me.
The truth is Phi should have covered. They were down 10 with a minute to go and the ball and Derrick rose out. All they had to do was score their next possession and prob would have covered.
But in basketball it all comes down to the last 2 minutes and they did not perform. Oh well
Aggravated with myself to no end for taking phi and under when they were not in accordance with my rules for picking. I should be looking at 1-0 right now with Miami looking like a lock
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Aggravated with myself to no end for taking phi and under when they were not in accordance with my rules for picking. I should be looking at 1-0 right now with Miami looking like a lock
Hey BOOYAHZ I am watching this Mia game and scratching my head man.
Dude this is why I shared the system, I've been watching all season this system rape night after night, but I am a rookie and haven't learned any discipline.
Miami is a usual-public play and at home vs a low seed NY team and the public is on NY. I am a buster and even tended to like NY. Yet I watch the line go up to -9 and the public is ALL OVER NY.
The sharps are obviously on Miami laying some huge wood and pushing the line up. Furthermore we watched the line move progressively down to 186.5 early, indicating it as a sharp play which is why I liked it. The busters again were all over the over (granted dogs and overs go together imo and favs and unders usually) and the line was dropping. The wood was getting laid on the under.
Now we know it shot up late and this is scary enough to lay off the total, BUT MIAMI NEVER DROPPED. Usually if NY becomes strong and the total shoots up late the line should move on NY also, since they're correlated...do you follow me so far? But Miami stayed strong at -9.
So we've already established that favorite line moves are something special when the public is on the dog PLUS they stayed strong even though the total got fishy. This is a huge indicator of a SHARP PLAY in my opinion.
This thing is like a puzzle and can be figured out. The problem is the indicators are not as strong for every game. I wanted action on that Bulls game but the criteria were not there for that game. You could make an argument for Phi but not really since the public was not heavily on the bulls as expected. There was actually an unusually high percentage 45% of busters on the dog, which is good for the favorite.
The only thing I like about my under pick on Bulls (and it was DEAD WRONG btw) was total originally went down a full point and B's on the over. But then it went back up 1/2 a point. This 1/2 pt move does not qualify as a line move in my book. I look for moves 1 pt plus and 1/2 pt can happen for any reason and doesn't tell us diddly squat.
So that game honestly needed to be a complete no-play. I know I am droning on here but trying to bring you guys up to speed so we can discuss games in the future together from this angle.
The system didn't fuck me earlier I did that myself. I am cashing a nice ticket on Miami today though to make up for it :)
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Hey BOOYAHZ I am watching this Mia game and scratching my head man.
Dude this is why I shared the system, I've been watching all season this system rape night after night, but I am a rookie and haven't learned any discipline.
Miami is a usual-public play and at home vs a low seed NY team and the public is on NY. I am a buster and even tended to like NY. Yet I watch the line go up to -9 and the public is ALL OVER NY.
The sharps are obviously on Miami laying some huge wood and pushing the line up. Furthermore we watched the line move progressively down to 186.5 early, indicating it as a sharp play which is why I liked it. The busters again were all over the over (granted dogs and overs go together imo and favs and unders usually) and the line was dropping. The wood was getting laid on the under.
Now we know it shot up late and this is scary enough to lay off the total, BUT MIAMI NEVER DROPPED. Usually if NY becomes strong and the total shoots up late the line should move on NY also, since they're correlated...do you follow me so far? But Miami stayed strong at -9.
So we've already established that favorite line moves are something special when the public is on the dog PLUS they stayed strong even though the total got fishy. This is a huge indicator of a SHARP PLAY in my opinion.
This thing is like a puzzle and can be figured out. The problem is the indicators are not as strong for every game. I wanted action on that Bulls game but the criteria were not there for that game. You could make an argument for Phi but not really since the public was not heavily on the bulls as expected. There was actually an unusually high percentage 45% of busters on the dog, which is good for the favorite.
The only thing I like about my under pick on Bulls (and it was DEAD WRONG btw) was total originally went down a full point and B's on the over. But then it went back up 1/2 a point. This 1/2 pt move does not qualify as a line move in my book. I look for moves 1 pt plus and 1/2 pt can happen for any reason and doesn't tell us diddly squat.
So that game honestly needed to be a complete no-play. I know I am droning on here but trying to bring you guys up to speed so we can discuss games in the future together from this angle.
The system didn't fuck me earlier I did that myself. I am cashing a nice ticket on Miami today though to make up for it :)
I'm gonna say one more thing for the day and that's it it's kinda obvious why they shot the line up on Miami o/u late, and I mention this kind of in the system but need to clarify.
Vegas manipulates and adjusts lines according to what they like vs what they know the public is going to bet.
The sharps were on the under as we were but Vegas knew the busters were coming in hot and heavy on the over right before tip off. So they ADJUSTED the line from 186.5 straight to 187.5, then to 188 as the B's laid their bets.
This is why I spelled out in the system that we look for PROGRESSIVE moves, not ADJUSTED moves. The adjusted ones like we saw today of a full point and a half in 2 minutes are not trust-worthy. The progressive ones are indicative of action, not adjustment by the books.
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I'm gonna say one more thing for the day and that's it it's kinda obvious why they shot the line up on Miami o/u late, and I mention this kind of in the system but need to clarify.
Vegas manipulates and adjusts lines according to what they like vs what they know the public is going to bet.
The sharps were on the under as we were but Vegas knew the busters were coming in hot and heavy on the over right before tip off. So they ADJUSTED the line from 186.5 straight to 187.5, then to 188 as the B's laid their bets.
This is why I spelled out in the system that we look for PROGRESSIVE moves, not ADJUSTED moves. The adjusted ones like we saw today of a full point and a half in 2 minutes are not trust-worthy. The progressive ones are indicative of action, not adjustment by the books.
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with the sharps and it paid DIVIDENDS!!!
Established in 1995,
GOOD LUCK BOSS
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